An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

General strain theory, situational anger, and social networks: An assessment of conditioning influences

Using a random sample of university students to test general strain theory (GST), this study expanded on previous tests of strain theory in two ways. First, situational anger was measured, a construct that had not been used thus far in assessments of general strain. In addition, this research examined the role of social support networks as a conditioning influence on the effects of strain and anger on intentions to commit three types of criminal behavior (serious assault, shoplifting, and driving under the influence of alcohol [DUI]). The results provided mixed support for GST. While the link between anger and crime was confirmed, the nature of that relationship in some cases ran counter to the theory. Moreover, the evidence indicated that the role of social support networks was complex, and varied as a conditioning influence on intentions to engage in criminal activities. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patterns and levels of endemism in the Australian Wet Tropics rainforest: evidence from flightless insects

This study examines the level and pattern of endemism among 274 flightless rainforest insects found in the Wet Tropics region of Australia. Endemism is measured at two nested scales: (1) those confined to the Wet Tropics, termed 'regional endemics'; and (2) the subset of those species confined to a single subregion of the Wet Tropics, termed 'subregional endemics'. Fifty per cent of the regional endemic flightless insects are also subregional endemics compared with 15% of the known regional endemic vertebrates. The four subregions with the most endemic flightless insect species are the uplands of Mt Finnigan, Carbine, Bellenden-Ker/Bartle Frere and Atherton. Multiple regression suggests that the combination of rainforest area and shape explain the most variance (R-2 = 0.603) in the numbers of species of regional endemic insects. However, subregional endemism is not closely correlated with the size or shape of the subregions in which they occur, or a combination of these factors. Candidate refugial and recolonised subregions are identified, and are consistent with data from palaeoclimatic models and refugia identified using other taxa. We group upland subregions into larger areas of endemism using parsimony analysis of endemism. These groupings are consistent with our understanding of the history of the Wet Tropics rainforests.

Mosquito host-feeding patterns and implications for Japanese encephalitis virus transmission in northern Australia and Papua New Guinea

Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus spread to northern Australia during the 1990s, transmitted by Culex annulirostris Skuse and other mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae). To determine the relative importance of various hosts for potential vectors of JE virus, we investigated the host-feeding patterns of mosquitoes in northern Australia and Western Province of Papua New Guinea, with particular attention to pigs, Sus scrofa L. - the main amplifying host of JE virus in South-east Asia. Mosquitoes were collected by CDC light traps baited with dry ice and 1-octen-3-ol, run 16.00-08.00 hours, mostly set away from human habitations, if possible in places frequented by feral pigs. Bloodmeals of 2569 mosquitoes, representing 15 species, were identified by gel diffusion assay. All species had fed mostly on mammals: only 30%) were trapped where domestic pigs were kept close to human habitation. From seven of eight locations on the Australian mainland, the majority of Cx. annulirostris had obtained their bloodmeals from marsupials, probably the Agile wallaby Macropus agilis (Gould). Overall proportions of mosquito bloodmeals identified as marsupial were 60% from the Gulf Plains region of Australia, 78% from the Cape York Peninsula and 64% from the Daru area of Papua New Guinea. Thus, despite the abundance of feral pigs in northern Australia, our findings suggest that marsupials divert host-seeking Cx. annulirostris away from pigs. As marsupials are poor JE virus hosts, the prevalence of marsupials may impede the establishment of JE virus in Australia.

Drug use patterns and mental health of regular amphetamine users during a reported 'heroin drought'

Aims The present study extends the findings of a pilot study conducted among regular amphetamine users in Newcastle, NSW, in 1998. It compares key features between current participants in a state capital city (Brisbane) and a regional city (Newcastle) and between the 1998 and current Newcastle sample. Design Cross-sectional survey. Setting Brisbane and Newcastle, Australia. Participants The survey was conducted among 214 regular amphetamine users within the context of a randomized controlled trial of brief interventions for amphetamine use. Measurements Demographic characteristics, past and present alcohol and other drug use and mental health, treatment, amphetamine-related harms and severity of dependence. Findings The main findings were as follows: (i) the rate of mental health problems was high among regular amphetamine users and these problems commonly emerged after commencement of regular amphetamine use; (ii) there were regional differences in drug use with greater accessibility to a wider range of drugs in a state capital city and greater levels of injecting risk-taking behaviour outside the capital city environment; and (iii) there was a significant increase in level of amphetamine use and percentage of alcohol users, a trend for a higher level of amphetamine dependence and a significant reduction in the percentage of people using heroin and benzodiazepines among the 2002 Newcastle cohort compared to the 1998 cohort. Conclusions Further longitudinal research is needed to elucidate transitions from one drug type to another and from recreational to injecting and regular use and the relationship between drug use and mental health in prospective studies among users. Implications Intervention research should evaluate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at: preventing transition to injecting and regular use of amphetamines; toward reducing levels of depression among amphetamine users and interventions among people with severe psychopathology and personality disorders; and toward reducing the prevalence of tobacco dependence among amphetamine users.

Diversification and extensible networks: The strategies of Chinese businesses in Australia

The paper reports on a study of 28 ethnic Chinese businesses in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, carried out in 2000 and 2001. It focuses on their strategies of vertical, horizontal, and unrelated diversification often combining different activities, products, and markets at the same time. It demonstrates how these practices are socially embedded in their preference for using personal networks. Non-related diversification, in particular, promotes and is facilitated by using weak ties that serve as bridges, leading into new networks (Granovetter, 1973). This can create links to Chinese of different national and dialect origins and to those of other ethnicities. It is suggested that open networks and diversification mutually interact to support each other and may have evolved in tandem from earlier, more closed and niche bound business cultures and practices.

Role of smoking in global and regional cancer epidemiology: current patterns and data needs

Although smoking is widely recognized as a major cause of cancer, there is little information on how it contributes to the global and regional burden of cancers in combination with other risk factors that affect background cancer mortality patterns. We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) and the WHO and IARC cancer mortality databases to estimate deaths from 8 clusters of site-specific cancers caused by smoking, for 14 epidemiologic subregions of the world, by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.57) million cancer deaths in the world, 21% of total global cancer deaths, were caused by smoking. Of these, 1.18 million deaths were among men and 0.24 million among women; 625,000 (95% CI 485,000-749,000) smoking-caused cancer deaths occurred in the developing world and 794,000 (95% CI 749,000-840,000) in industrialized regions. Lung cancer accounted for 60% of smoking-attributable cancer mortality, followed by cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (20%). Based on available data, more than one in every 5 cancer deaths in the world in the year 2000 were caused by smoking, making it possibly the single largest preventable cause of cancer mortality. There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site-specific cancers. This variability illustrates the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Accelerating, hyperaccelerating, and decelerating networks

Many growing networks possess accelerating statistics where the number of links added with each new node is an increasing function of network size so the total number of links increases faster than linearly with network size. In particular, biological networks can display a quadratic growth in regulator number with genome size even while remaining sparsely connected. These features are mutually incompatible in standard treatments of network theory which typically require that every new network node possesses at least one connection. To model sparsely connected networks, we generalize existing approaches and add each new node with a probabilistic number of links to generate either accelerating, hyperaccelerating, or even decelerating network statistics in different regimes. Under preferential attachment for example, slowly accelerating networks display stationary scale-free statistics relatively independent of network size while more rapidly accelerating networks display a transition from scale-free to exponential statistics with network growth. Such transitions explain, for instance, the evolutionary record of single-celled organisms which display strict size and complexity limits.

Modeling the relationships between adult attachment patterns and borderline personality disorder: The role of impulsivity and aggressiveness

To obtain a better understanding of the associations among Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD), adult attachment patterns, impulsivity, and aggressiveness, we tested four competing models of these relationships: a) BPD is associated with the personality traits of impulsivity and aggressiveness, but adult attachment patterns predict neither BPD nor impulsive/aggressive features; b) adult attachment patterns are significant predictors of BPD but not of impulsive/aggressive traits, although these traits correlate with BPD; c) adult attachment patterns are significant predictors of impulsive and aggressive traits, which in turn predict BPD; and d) adult attachment patterns significantly predict both BPD and impulsive/aggressive traits. We assessed 466 consecutively admitted outpatients using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis II Personality Disorders (V. 2.0), the Attachment Style Questionnaire, the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11, and the Aggression Questionnaire. Maximum likelihood structural equation modeling of the covariance matrix showed that model (c) was the best fitting model (chi(2) (21) = 31.67, p >.05, RMSEA = .023, test of close fit p >.85). This result indicates that adult attachment patterns act indirectly as risk factors for BPD because of their relationships with aggressive/impulsive personality traits.

Dietary patterns and metabolic syndrome - a review of epidemiologic evidence

Metabolic syndrome is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes, and appears to be widely prevalent in both developed and developing countries. While lifestyle modification is recommended for management of the syndrome, the dietary pattern most beneficial for patients is yet to be ascertained. Original research papers from the Medline database were examined for dietary patterns that may be associated with the syndrome. Three large-scale epidemiological studies were found fitting our criteria. Dietary patterns high in fruit and vegetable content were generally found to be associated with lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Diet patterns with high meat intake were frequently associated with components of metabolic syndrome, particularly impaired glucose tolerance. High dairy intake was generally associated with reduced risk for components of metabolic syndrome with some inconsistency in the literature regarding risk of obesity. Minimally processed cereals appeared to be associated with decreased risk of metabolic syndrome, while highly processed cereals with high glycaemic index are associated with higher risk. Fried foods were noticeably absent from any dietary pattern associated with decreased prevalence of metabolic syndrome. The conclusion of this review is that no individual dietary component could be considered wholly responsible for the association of diet with metabolic syndrome. Rather it is the overall quality of the diet that appears to offer protection against lifestyle disease such as metabolic syndrome. Further research is required into conditions, such as overweight and obesity, which may influence the effect of diet on the development of metabolic syndrome.

Genetics and genomics of osteoclast differentiation: Integrating cell signaling pathways and gene networks

The regulation of osteoclast differentiation in the bone microenvironment is critical for normal bone remodeling, as well as for various human bone diseases. Over the last decade, our knowledge of how osteoclast differentiation occurs has progressed rapidly. We highlight some of the major advances in understanding how cell signaling and transcription are integrated to direct the differentiation of this cell type. These studies used genetic, molecular, and biochemical approaches. Additionally, we summarize data obtained from studies of osteoclast differentiation that used the functional genomic approach of global gene profiling applied to osteoclast differentiation. This genomic data confirms results from studies using the classical experimental approaches and also may suggest new modes by which osteoclast differentiation and function can be modulated. Two conclusions that emerge are that osteoclast differentiation depends on a combination of fairly ubiquitously expressed transcription factors rather than unique osteoclast factors, and that the overlay of cell signaling pathways on this set of transcription factors provides a powerful mechanism to fine tune the differentiation program in response to the local bone microenvironment.