SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Digitally-implemented naturally sampled PWM suitable for multilevel converter control

For dynamic closed loop control of a multilevel converter with a low pulse number (ratio of switching frequency to synthesized fundamental), natural sampled pulse-width modulation (PWM) is the best form of modulation. Natural sampling does not introduce distortion or a delayed response to the modulating signal. However previous natural sampled PWM implementations have generally been analog. For a modular multilevel converter, a digital implementation has advantages of accuracy and flexibility. Re-sampled uniform PWM is a novel digital modulation technique which approaches the performance of natural PWM. Both hardware and software implementations for a five level multilevel converter phase are presented, demonstrating the improvement over uniform PWM.

An Australian PR state?

In their 1994 study Taxation and Representation, Deacon and Golding point to the extensive use of press and public relations professionals by governments to promote policy, and to outmanouvre their opponents. With the UK specifically in mind, they warn: 'we cannot ignore the massive expansion of the public relations state.' (p.6). What distinguishes their approach from the more usual preoccupation with the use of 'spin' to 'package' political leaders is a focus on the institutionalisation of public relations within government. In this paper, I explore the utililty of the concept, and consider what the broad features of an Australian 'PR State' might be.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

'Localizing the national' - The rediscovery and reshaping of local campaigning in Australia

Pippa Norris provides a schematic account of the evolution of campaigning through premodern, modern and postmodern stages. In particular she points to an emerging postmodern phase of electioneering characterized by a renewed emphasis upon direct forms of engagement which resonate with an earlier period in which campaigns were locally fought and largely dependent upon the canvassing efforts of party workers and volunteers. Norris's analysis offers a useful prism with which to view recent developments in electioneering in Australia. In the past several elections the rival Labor and Liberal parties have attempted to achieve a synergy between their centrally conducted and constituency-level campaigns by ensuring that their national campaigns are locally relevant and address local concerns. Their efforts to 'localize the national' meld the use of sophisticated software with elements of a traditional 'meet and greet' politics and suggest that local campaigning may now have a new shape and importance.