Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship of high energy expenditure and variation in dietary intake with reporting accuracy on 7 day food records and diet histories in a group of healthy adult volunteers

Objectives: To assess the accuracy of reporting from both a diet history and food record and identify some of the characteristics of more accurate reporters in a group of healthy adult volunteers for an energy balance study. Design: Prospective measurements in free-living people. Setting: Wollongong, Australia. Subjects: Fifteen healthy volunteers (seven male, eight female; aged 22 -59 y; body mass index (BMI) 19 - 33 kg/m(2)) from the local community in the city of Wollongong, Australia. Interventions: Measurement of energy intake via diet history interview and 7 day food records, total energy expenditure by the doubly labelled water technique over 14 days, physical activity by questionnaire, and body fat by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results: Increased misreporting of energy intake was associated with increased energy expenditure (r = 0.90, P < 0.0001, diet history; r(s)=0.79, P=0.0005, food records) but was not associated with age, sex, BMI or body fat. Range in number of recorded dinner foods correlated positively with energy expenditure (r(s)=0.63, P=0.01) and degree of misreporting (r(s)=0.71, P=0.003, diet history; r(s)=0.63, P=0.01, food records). Variation in energy intake at dinner and over the whole day identified by the food records correlated positively with energy expenditure (r=0.58, P = 0.02) and misreporting on the diet history (r=0.62, P=0.01). Conclusions: Subjects who are highly active or who have variable dietary and exercise behaviour may be less accurate in reporting dietary intake. Our findings indicate that it may be necessary to screen for these characteristics in studies where accuracy of reporting at an individual level is critical. Sponsorship: The study was supported in part by Australian Research Council funds made available through the University of Wollongong.

Geographic variation in the behaviour of the cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus (Labridae)

Geographical variation in the outcome of interspecific interactions has a range of proximate ecological causes. For instance, cleaning interactions between coral reef fishes can result in benefits for both the cleaner and its clients. However, because both parties can cheat and because the rewards of cheating may depend on the local abundance of ectoparasites on clients, the interaction might range from exploitative to mutualistic. In a comparative analysis of behavioural measures of the association between the cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus and all its client species, we compared cleaning interactions between two sites on the Great Barrier Reef that differ with respect to mean ectoparasite abundance. At Heron Island, where client fish consistently harbour fewer ectoparasites, client species that tended to pose for cleaners were more likely to receive feeding bites by cleaners than client species that did not pose for cleaners. This was not the case at Lizard Island, where ectoparasites are significantly more abundant. Client fish generally spent more time posing for cleaners at Lizard Island than their conspecifics at Heron Island. However, fish at Heron Island were inspected longer on average by cleaners than conspecifics at Lizard Island, and they incurred more bites and swipes at their sides per unit time from cleaners. These and other differences between the two sites suggest that the local availability of ectoparasites as a food source for cleaners may determine whether clients will seek cleaning, and whether cleaners will feed on parasites or attempt to feed on client mucus. The results suggest that cleaning symbiosis is a mosaic of different outcomes driven by geographical differences in the benefits for both participants.

Laying date and laying sequence influence the sex ratio of crimson rosella broods

We examine the patterns of sex allocation in crimson rosellas Platycercus elegans, a socially monogamous Australian parrot. Overall, 41.8% of nestlings were male, a significant female bias. However underlying this population-level bias were non-random patterns of sex allocation within broods. Broods produced early in the season were female-biased, but the proportion of males in a brood increased as the breeding season progressed. Female rosellas may obtain greater fitness benefits from early-fledging daughters than sons because daughters can breed as 1-year-olds whereas sons do not breed until they are at least 2 years old. Laying date and laying sequence also interacted to influence the sex ratio of eggs. The sex of early-laid eggs strongly followed the brood level pattern, whereas the sex of middle- and late-laid eggs did not change significantly as the season progressed. Nevertheless, late-laid eggs were very unlikely to be male at the end of the season. We argue these differing seasonal patterns reflect the relative costs and benefits to producing early-hatched males and females at different times of the season. Female rosellas appear to maximise the probability that daughters are able to breed early but to minimise competitive asymmetries within the brood. In particular, late-hatched male chicks are disadvantaged if their oldest sibling is male, explaining the dearth of broods containing late-hatched males at the end of the breeding season.

The ultrastructure of Amylovorax dehorityi comb. nov and erection of the Amylovoracidae fam. nov (Ciliophora : Trichostomatia)

The ultrastructural features of the holotrichous ciliates inhabiting macropodid maruspials were investigated to resolve their morphological similarity to other trichostome ciliates with observed differences in their small subunit rRNA gene sequences. The ultrastructure of Amylovorax dehorityi nov. comb. (formerly Dasytricha dehorityi) was determined by transmission electron microscopy. The somatic kineties are composed of monokinetids whose microtubules show a typical litostome pattern. The somatic cortex is composed of ridges which separate kinety rows, granular ectoplasm and a basal layer of hydrogenosomes lining the tela corticalis. The vestibulum is an invagination of the pellicle lined down one side with kineties (invaginated extensions of the somatic kineties); transverse tubules line the surface of the vestibulum and small nematodesmata surround it forming a cone-like network of struts. Cytoplasmic organelles include hydrogenosomes, irregularly shaped contractile vacuoles surrounded by a sparse spongioplasm, food vacuoles containing bacteria and large numbers of starch granules. This set of characteristics differs sufficiently from those of isotrichids and members of the genus Dasytricha to justify the erection of a new genus (Amylovorax) and a new family (Amylovoracidae). Dasytricha dehorityi, D. dogieli and D. mundayi are reassigned to the new genus Amylovorax and a new species A. quokka is erected. While the gross morphological similarities between Amylovorax and Dasytricha may be explained by convergent evolution, ultrastructural features indicate that these two genera have probably diverged independently from haptorian ancestors by successive reduction of the cortical and vestibular support structures.

Cooperative fishing interactions between Aboriginal Australians and dolphins in eastern Australia

Published eyewitness accounts and stories form Aboriginal Australians are used to provide an overview of the geographical extent and characteristics of cooperative fishing between Aboriginal Australians and dolphins in eastern Australia. These sources indicate that cooperative fishing was geographically widespread in eastern Australia, involved both bottlenose dolphins and orcas, and had a significance (emotional and Spiritual) to Aboriginal people beyond the acquisition of food. These fishing interactions represent both context and precedent for the economic and emotional-objectives of contemporary human-dolphin interactions such as dolphin provisioning. (C) 2002 International Society for Anthrozoology.

Seed dormancy mechanisms in warm season grass species

Available evidence suggests that there are at least two locations for dormancy mechanisms in primary dormant seeds: mechanisms based within the embryo covering structures, and mechanisms based within the embryo. Mechanisms within the covering structures may involve mechanical, permeability and chemical barriers to germination. Mechanisms within the embryo may involve the expression of certain genes, levels of certain plant growth regulators, the activity of important respiratory pathways or the mobilisation and utilisation of food reserves. In addition, some embryos may be too immature to germinate immediately and must undergo a further growth phase before germination is possible. An individual species could have one or several of these various dormancy mechanisms and these mechanisms need to be understood when selecting treatments to overcome dormancy. The way in which certain dormancy breaking agents are thought to work is discussed and practical applications of such agents in field situations are explained.

Trace organic compounds in the marine environment

Trace organic chemicals include a range of compounds which, due to a combination of their physico-chemical properties and toxicological implications, have been described as a serious threat to the biotic environment. A global treaty to regulate the manufacture and release of some of the most persistent trace chemicals has been promulgated and signed. The marine environment is an important sink for many trace chemicals, some of which accumulate in the marine food chain and in particular in marine mammals. With respect to the global distribution of trace organic chemicals, the levels of organohalogen compounds in the Southern Hemisphere are comparatively lower for a given environmental compartment and latitude compared to the Northern Hemisphere. A debate is currently evolving about the toxicity of alternative halogen substitutions such as bromine instead of chlorine and also of mixed halogen substitution. Recently a series of potentially natural bioaccumulative and persistent organohalogen chemicals have been found in marine mammals and turtles at levels in excess of those of anthropogenic trace organochlorines including PCBs and DDE. Little is known about the sources, behaviour and effects of natural trace organic chemicals. This manuscript presents an overview on the occurrence of trace organic chemicals in different compartments of the aquatic environment. Important knowledge gaps with regards to trace chemicals in the marine environment are presented. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The microbiological quality of beef tripe using different processing techniques

The microbiological quality of routinely processed tripe and rumen pillars were compared with those derived after emptying the rumen (paunch) without using water (dry dumping) and after deliberately bursting the paunches before processing. Prior to packing the mean:log(10) aerobic plate counts (APC) for the routinely processed tripe and rumen pillars were 3.55+/-1.08 and 3.28+/-0.87/g respectively. The corresponding mean log(10) total coliform counts (TCC) were 1.27+/-1.28 and 2.08+/-0.87. The mean log(10) APC counts on tripe and rumen pillars after dry-dumping were 3.06+/-0.60 and 3.90+/-0.75/g, respectively. The corresponding mean log(10) TCC were 1.03+/-0.60/g and 2.75+/-1.14/g respectively. After deliberately bursting the paunches, before processing, the mean log(10) APC counts on tripe and rumen pillars were 3.55+/-0.83/g and 3.50+/-0.59/g and the mean log(10) TCC were 1.54+/-0.95/g and 2.66+/-0.82/g respectively. In all cases the prevalence of Salmonella and Campylobacter spp. was less than 3%. The results indicate that both tripe and rumen pillars can be produced after dry dumping without compromising the quality of tripe and rumen pillars. Similarly, incidentally burst paunches that become contaminated with ingesta on the serosal surface can be processed without compromising product quality. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Axon navigation in the mammalian primary olfactory pathway: Where to next?

The process of establishing long-range neuronal connections can be divided into at least three discrete steps. First, axons need to be stimulated to grow and this growth must be towards appropriate targets. Second, after arriving at their target, axons need to be directed to their topographically appropriate position and in some cases, such as in cortical structures, they must grow radially to reach the correct laminar layer Third, axons then arborize and form synaptic connections with only a defined subpopulation of potential post-synaptic partners. Attempts to understand these mechanisms in the visual system have been ongoing since pioneer studies in the 1940s highlighted the specificity of neuronal connections in the retino-tectal pathway. These classical systems-based approaches culminated in the 1990s with the discovery that Eph-ephrin repulsive interactions were involved in topographical mapping. In marked contrast, it was the cloning of the odorant receptor family that quickly led to a better understanding of axon targeting in the olfactory system. The last 10 years have seen the olfactory pathway rise in prominence as a model system for axon guidance. Once considered to be experimentally intractable, it is now providing a wealth of information on all aspects of axon guidance and targeting with implications not only for our understanding of these mechanisms in the olfactory system but also in other regions of the nervous system.

Predation of brown tree snakes (Boiga irregularis) in Australia

We conducted a literature review to address the potential for using a native, vertebrate predator of brown tree snakes (Boiga irregularis) as a biological control method on Guam. Both actual and potential predators were included in our review. We located two actual predators (red-bellied black snakes (Pseudechis porphyriacus) and cane toads (Bufo marinus)) and 55 potential predators of brown tree snakes. However, none of the native predators of brown tree snakes appear likely candidates as a biological control method on Guam due to their lack of selectivity in their feeding habits and unknown aspects of their natural history. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.