Selection bias in gene extraction on the basis of microarray gene-expression data

In the context of cancer diagnosis and treatment, we consider the problem of constructing an accurate prediction rule on the basis of a relatively small number of tumor tissue samples of known type containing the expression data on very many (possibly thousands) genes. Recently, results have been presented in the literature suggesting that it is possible to construct a prediction rule from only a few genes such that it has a negligible prediction error rate. However, in these results the test error or the leave-one-out cross-validated error is calculated without allowance for the selection bias. There is no allowance because the rule is either tested on tissue samples that were used in the first instance to select the genes being used in the rule or because the cross-validation of the rule is not external to the selection process; that is, gene selection is not performed in training the rule at each stage of the cross-validation process. We describe how in practice the selection bias can be assessed and corrected for by either performing a cross-validation or applying the bootstrap external to the selection process. We recommend using 10-fold rather than leave-one-out cross-validation, and concerning the bootstrap, we suggest using the so-called. 632+ bootstrap error estimate designed to handle overfitted prediction rules. Using two published data sets, we demonstrate that when correction is made for the selection bias, the cross-validated error is no longer zero for a subset of only a few genes.

Closing the gap in curriculum development leadership

“Closing the gap in curriculum development leadership” is a Carrick-funded University of Queensland project which is designed to address two related gaps in current knowledge and in existing professional development programs for academic staff. The first gap is in our knowledge of curriculum and pedagogical issues as they arise in relation to multi-year sequences of study, such as majors in generalist degrees, or core programs in more structured degrees. While there is considerable knowledge of curriculum and pedagogy at the course or individual unit of study level (e.g. Philosophy I), there is very little properly conceptualised, empirically informed knowledge about student learning (and teaching) over, say, a three-year major sequence in a traditional Arts or Sciences subject. The Carrick-funded project aims to (begin to) fill this gap through bottom-up curriculum development projects across the range of UQ’s offerings. The second gap is in our professional development programs and, indeed, in our recognition and support for the people who are in charge of such multi-year sequences of study. The major convener or program coordinator is not as well supported, in Australian and overseas professional development programs, as the lecturer in charge of a single course (or unit of study). Nor is her work likely to be taken account of in workload calculations or for the purposes of promotion and career advancement more generally. The Carrick-funded project aims to fill this gap by developing, in consultation with crucial stakeholders, amendments to existing university policies and practices. The attached documents provide a useful introduction to the project. For more information, please contact Fred D’Agostino at f.dagostino@uq.edu.au.

Challenge or opportunity: can regional training hospitals capitalise on the impending influx of interns?

To the Editor: The increase in medical graduates expected over the next decade presents a huge challenge to the many stakeholders involved in providing their prevocational and vocational medical training. 1 Increased numbers will add significantly to the teaching and supervision workload for registrars and consultants, while specialist training and access to advanced training positions may be compromised. However, this predicament may also provide opportunities for innovation in the way internships are delivered. Although facing these same challenges, regional and rural hospitals could use this situation to enhance their workforce by creating opportunities for interns and junior doctors to acquire valuable experience in non-metropolitan settings. We surveyed a representative sample (n = 147; 52% of total cohort) of Year 3 Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery students at the University of Queensland about their perceptions and expectations of their impending internship and the importance of its location (ie, urban/metropolitan versus regional/rural teaching hospitals) to their future training and career plans. Most students (n = 127; 86%) reported a high degree of contemplation about their internship choice. Issues relating to career progression and support ranked highest in their expectations. Most perceived internships in urban/metropolitan hospitals as more beneficial to their future career prospects compared with regional/rural hospitals, but, interestingly, felt that they would have more patient responsibility and greater contact with and supervision by senior staff in a regional setting (Box). Regional and rural hospitals should try to harness these positive perceptions and act to address any real or perceived shortcomings in order to enhance their future workforce.2 They could look to establish partnerships with rural clinical schools3 to enhance recruitment of interns as early as Year 3. To maximise competitiveness with their urban counterparts, regional and rural hospitals need to offer innovative training and career progression pathways to junior doctors, to combat the perception that internships in urban hospitals are more beneficial to future career prospects. Partnerships between hospitals, medical schools and vocational colleges, with input from postgraduate medical councils, should provide vertical integration4 in the important period between student and doctor. Work is underway to more closely evaluate and compare the intern experience across regional/rural and urban/metropolitan hospitals, and track student experiences and career choices longitudinally. This information may benefit teaching hospitals and help identify the optimal combination of resources necessary to provide quality teaching and a clear career pathway for the expected influx of new interns.

Psychological distress among female sex workers

The prevalence and correlates of psychological distress were examined in a sample of 171 female sex workers in Queensland. It was found that 28 per cent were above the GHQ-28 threshold for mild psychiatric morbidity, a rate that is not appreciably different from that of women in the general community. The sample included only eight street sex workers, all of whom reported significant distress. Logistic regression analyses showed that a history of injecting drug use, an early age at leaving home and wanting to leave the sex industry were independent predictors of poor mental health. Distressed sex workers reported fewer sexual health examinations and less consistent condom use with their clients than those who were not distressed.

Long-term clozapine treatment identifies significant improvements in clinical and functioning scales

The majority of clinical drug trials only cover a small number of variables over a short period of time on a small group of people. The objective of this study was to track a large group of people over a long period of time, using a diverse range of variables with a naturalistic design to assess the ‘real world’ use of clozapine. Fifty-three people with treatment-resistant schizophrenia were recruited into a 2-year study which assessed the subjects using the following scales: Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Clinical Global Impression Scale (CGI), Life Skills Profile (LSP), and Role Functioning Scale (RFS). Discharge, leave, and ward movement rates were also monitored. All subjects were inpatients at a tertiary psychiatric facility. Thirty-three percent of the group was discharged. Seventythree percent moved to less cost-intensive wards, and the leave rate increased by 105”/0. Sixty-seven percent of the study group were identified as responders by the 24-month time point. Twenty-four percent of the group had their CGI scores reduced to 2 or better 0, =O.OOOl). Significant improvements were identified in the RFS (p = 0.02) and LSP (p = 0.0001). Long-term clozapine treatment has identified a significant group of responders on a variety of measures.

International tourists and road safety in Australia: developing a national research and management programme

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of injury death for international tourists. This makes road safety an important issue for tourism authorities. Unfortunately, as it is in other areas of tourist health, the common response from the travel and tourism industry is to remain silent about this problem and to leave any mishaps in the hands of insurers. At the same time, but for different reasons, international tourists are not usually targeted for road safety initiatives by transport authorities. Given that there are considerable 'hidden' costs associated with international tourists and motor vehicle crashes, the topic should be of concern to both tourism and transport groups. This paper examines issues concerned with driving in unfamiliar surroundings for international visitors in Australia, and proposes a national research and management programme to guide policy and planning in the area. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Barriers to equality: men's and women's attitudes to workplace entitlements in Australia

This paper examines attitudes to workplace entitlements, such as parental leave and flexible work hours. Family friendly policies such as leave to care for children have implications for feminist debates about sameness versus difference and the extent to which such policies will lead to greater equality between men and women, or alternatively, further entrench existing gender divisions of labour: Using data from a recent national survey in Australia, the paper shows that while the Australian workforce is generally in favour of workplace entitlements, women are generally more supportive of these kinds of benefits than men. Surprisingly, most respondents are more supportive of unpaid rather than paid parental leave. The results also show that the most important determinants of support for work entitlements are a combination of the extent to which one needs work entitlements and employment location. The results raise issues about whether the provision of workplace entitlements will encourage greater participation by men in domestic responsibilities, or simply ease women's double burden of paid and unpaid work.

The co-segregation of psychosis and selected physical disorders within families of patients with psychosis versus well controls

While it has been reported that individuals with psychosis are at increased or decreased risk of various physical disorders such as cancer and rheumatoid arthritis, there has been less research on the co-segregation of physical disorders within the first-degree relatives of those with psychosis compared to relatives of well controls. The aim of this study was to examine these issues in an epidemiologically informed catchment-area based case-control study. Patients with psychosis were drawn from a prevalence study undertaken as part of the Australian National Mental Health Survey. In addition, we recruited well controls who resided in the same catchment area. For each subject, we drew pedigrees and used a structured checklist to assess the presence of selected psychiatric disorders, and selected disorders such as multiple sclerosis, epilepsy, spina bifida, thyroid disorders, diabetes, asthma and eczema. Data based on pedigrees from 293 individuals with psychosis and 292 well controls was available. As expected, the odds of havingschizophrenia and affective disorders were significantly increased in the families of cases versus controls. The odds of havingeczema were significantly reduced in the relatives of those with psychosis. All other disorders occurred with equal frequency in cases versus control pedigrees. Current theories of eczema suggest that an absence of early life exposure to antigens and infectious agents may fail to prime the na¨ıve immune system, and leave the person at increased risk of eczema. The results of this study suggest that genetic andror environmental factors that facilitate psychosis may protect against eczema. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Surgical caseload and outcomes for women with invasive breast cancer treated in Western Australia

We have assessed the outcomes for all women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in Western Australia during 1989, 1994 and 1999, and compared the results for surgeons who treat 20 or more cases per year with those of surgeons who treat less. Women treated by high caseload surgeons were more likely to retain their breast (53.3% vs. 36.7%, p < 0.001), have adjuvant radiotherapy (50.0% vs. 30.6%, p < 0.001), and be alive after 4 years (1989, 86% vs. 82%; 1994, 89% vs. 84%; 1999, 90% vs. 79%, HR 0.71, p = 0.03). Adjusting for age and year of diagnosis, women were not more likely to be treated with adjuvant chemotherapy (29.2% vs. 20.9%, p = 0.28). In 1989 35% of women were treated by high caseload surgeons. By 1999 this had risen to 82%. The results confirm that women treated by high caseload surgeons have better outcomes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What constitutes success in telehealth?

Before telehealth applications can be judged, there must be some general understanding about what constitutes success. At first sight it seems that defining success in a telehealth application should be relatively easy: a successful application is one that produces high-quality care at low cost. However, the calculation of cost requires some care, since it depends on assuming a particular financial perspective (the patient's, the health-care provider's, or society's) and is meaningless without a statement of the workload being handled. Other factors include the context in which the service is being delivered. Ultimately, the political imperative may override any rational judgement of success.

Guilty? An explanation of the Lockerbie trial. (Case notes)

The Lockerbie Trial, concerning the explosion of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988, took place in the Netherlands because of the fear that pre-trial publicity would make a fair trial impossible and also fears for the physical safety of the accused - case for the prosecution - application of Scottish law - report of an observer at the trial, Professor Kochler - the International Criminal Court - leave to appeal granted.

Is the irritable bladder associated with anterior compartment relaxation? A critical look at the 'integral theory of pelvic floor dysfunction'

The 'integral theory of pelvic floor dysfunction', first proposed by Petros and Ulmsten in 1990, claims that anterior vaginal wall relaxation is associated with symptoms of urgency, frequency, nocturia and urge incontinence. A retrospective study was designed to test this hypothesis. Imaging data and urodynamic reports from 272 women suffering from symptoms of lower urinary tract dysfunction were evaluated. Opening of the retrovesical angle, bladder neck descent, urethral rotation and descent of a cystocele during Valsalva were used to quantify anterior vaginal wall laxity None of the tested parameters were associated with symptoms and signs of detrusor overactivity. On the contrary, patients with higher grades of urethral and bladder descent were less likely to suffer from nocturia and urge incontinence and were less likely to leave sensory urgency and detrusor instability diagnosed on urodynamic testing. The findings of this study therefore do not support this hypothesis of the 'integral theory'.

Mark-recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.