An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Wave-induced seepage flux into anisotropic seabeds

Considerable effort has been devoted to quantifying the wave-induced soil response in a porous seabed in the last few decades. Most previous investigations have focused on the analysis of pore pressure and effective stresses within isotropic sediments, despite strong evidence of anisotropic soil behaviour reported in the literature. Furthermore, the seepage flux, which is important in the context of contaminant transport, has not been examined. In this paper, we focus on water wave-driven seepage in anisotropic marine sediments of finite thickness. The numerical results predict that the effects of hydraulic anisotropy and anisotropic soil behaviour on the wave-driven seepage in marine sediment are significant. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Apparent strain localization and shear wave dispersion in elastic fault gouge with microrotations

Shear deformation of fault gouge or other particulate materials often results in observed strain localization, or more precisely, the localization of measured deformation gradients. In conventional elastic materials the strain localization cannot take place therefore this phenomenon is attributed to special types of non-elastic constitutive behaviour. For particulate materials however the Cosserat continuum which takes care of microrotations independent of displacements is a more appropriate model. In elastic Cosserat continuum the localization in displacement gradients is possible under some combinations of the generalized Cosserat elastic moduli. The same combinations of parameters also correspond to a considerable dispersion in shear wave propagation which can be used for independent experimental verification of the proposed mechanism of apparent strain localization in fault gouge.

Beach water table fluctuations due to wave run-up: Capillarity effects

High-frequency beach water table fluctuations due to wave run-up and rundown have been observed in the field [Waddell, 1976]. Such fluctuations affect the infiltration/exfiltration process across the beach face and the interstitial oxygenation process in the beach ecosystem. Accurate representation of high-frequency water table fluctuations is of importance in the modeling of (1) the interaction between seawater and groundwater, more important, the effects on swash sediment transport and (2) the biological activities in the beach ecosystem. Capillarity effects provide a mechanism for high-frequency water table fluctuations. Previous modeling approaches adopted the assumption of saturated flow only and failed to predict the propagation of high-frequency fluctuations in the aquifer. In this paper we develop a modified kinematic boundary condition (kbc) for the water table which incorporates capillarity effects. The application of this kbc in a boundary element model enables the simulation of high-frequency water table fluctuations due to wave run-up. Numerical tests were carried out for a rectangular domain with small-amplitude oscillations; the behavior of water table responses was found to be similar to that predicted by an analytical solution based on the one-dimensional Boussinesq equation. The model was also applied to simulate the water table response to wave run-up on a doping beach. The results showed similar features of water table fluctuations observed in the field. In particular, these fluctuations are standing wave-like with the amplitude becoming increasingly damped inland. We conclude that the modified kbc presented here is a reasonable approximation of capillarity effects on beach water table fluctuations. However, further model validation is necessary before the model can confidently be used to simulate high-frequency water table fluctuations due to wave run-up.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Infrared seeded parametric four-wave mixing for sensitive detection of molecules

We have developed a sensitive resonant four-wave mixing technique based on two-photon parametric four-wave mixing with the addition of a phase matched ''seeder'' field. Generation of the seeder field via the same four-wave mixing process in a high pressure cell enables automatic phase matching to be achieved in a low pressure sample cell. This arrangement facilitates sensitive detection of complex molecular spectra by simply tuning the pump laser. We demonstrate the technique with the detection of nitric oxide down to concentrations more than 4 orders of magnitude below the capability of parametric four-wave mixing alone, with an estimated detection threshold of 10(12) molecules/cm(3).

A simple solution of the laminar dam break wave

The sudden release of a mass of fluid in a channel generates a highly unsteady flow motion, called dam break wave. While industrial fluids exhibit sometimes non-Newtonian behaviours, the viscous fluid flow assumption remains a useful approximation for simplified analyses. In this study, new solutions of laminar dam break wave are proposed for a semi-infinite reservoir based upon the method of characteristics. The solutions yield simple explicit expressions of the wave front location, wave front celerity and instantaneous free-surface profiles that compare favourably with experimental observations. Both horizontal and sloping channel configurations are treated. The simplicity of the equations may allow future extension to more complicated fluid flows.

Analytical solution and numerical model for the interface in a stratified long wave system

For a two layered long wave propagation, linearized governing equations, which were derived earlier from the Euler equations of mass and momentum assuming negligible friction and interfacial mixing are solved analytically using Fourier transform. For the solution, variations of upper layer water level is assumed to be sinosoidal having known amplitude and variations of interface level is solved. As the governing equations are too complex to solve it analytically, density of upper layer fluid is assumed as very close to the density of lower layer fluid to simplify the lower layer equation. A numerical model is developed using the staggered leap-forg scheme for computation of water level and discharge in one dimensional propagation having known amplitude for the variations of upper layer water level and interface level to be solved. For the numerical model, water levels (upper layer and interface) at both the boundaries are assumed to be known from analytical solution. Results of numerical model are verified by comparing with the analytical solutions for different time period. Good agreements between analytical solution and numerical model are found for the stated boundary condition. The reliability of the developed numerical model is discussed, using it for different a (ratio of density of fluid in the upper layer to that in the lower layer) and p (ratio of water depth in the lower layer to that in the upper layer) values. It is found that as ‘CX’ increases amplification of interface also increases for same upper layer amplitude. Again for a constant lower layer depth, as ‘p’ increases amplification of interface. also increases for same upper layer amplitude.