Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.

Modeling diffraction and imaging of laser beams by the mode-expansion method

We present a new method of modeling imaging of laser beams in the presence of diffraction. Our method is based on the concept of first orthogonally expanding the resultant diffraction field (that would have otherwise been obtained by the laborious application of the Huygens diffraction principle) and then representing it by an effective multimodal laser beam with different beam parameters. We show not only that the process of obtaining the new beam parameters is straightforward but also that it permits a different interpretation of the diffraction-caused focal shift in laser beams. All of the criteria that we have used to determine the minimum number of higher-order modes needed to accurately represent the diffraction field show that the mode-expansion method is numerically efficient. Finally, the characteristics of the mode-expansion method are such that it allows modeling of a vast array of diffraction problems, regardless of the characteristics of the incident laser beam, the diffracting element, or the observation plane. (C) 2005 Optical Society of America.

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.

An equivalent distributed magnetic current based FDTD method for the calculation of e-fields induced by gradient coils in MRI

This paper evaluates a low-frequency FDTD method applied to the problem of induced E-fields/eddy currents in the human body resulting from the pulsed magnetic field gradients in MRI. In this algorithm, a distributed equivalent magnetic current (DEMC) is proposed as the electromagnetic source and is obtained by quasistatic calculation of the empty coil's vector potential or measurements therein. This technique circumvents the discretizing of complicated gradient coil geometries into a mesh of Yee cells, and thereby enables any type of gradient coil modeling or other complex low frequency sources. The proposed method has been verified against an example with an analytical solution. Results are presented showing the spatial distribution of gradient-induced electric fields in a multilayered spherical phantom model and a complete body model.

Evidence of a spotted fever-like rickettsia and a potential new vector from northeastern Australia

A spotted fever-like rickettsia was identified in a Hemaphysalis tick by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and sequencing of the 16S rDNA, ompA, and ompB genes. A comparison of these nucleotide sequences with those of other spotted fever group (SFG) rickettsiae revealed that the Hemaphysalis tick rickettsia was distinct from other previously reported strains. Phylogenetic analysis based on both ompA and ompB also indicates that the strain’s closest relatives are the agents of Thai tick typhus (Rickettsia honei strain TT-118) and Flinders Island spotted fever (R. honei). This study represents the first report of an R. honei-like agent from a Hemaphysalis tick in Australia and of a spotted fever group rickettsia from Cape York Peninsula, Queensland.

Prospects for control of African trypanosomiasis by tsetse vector manipulation

The extensive antigenic variation phenomena African trypanosomes display in their mammalian host have hampered efforts to develop effective vaccines against trypanosomiasis. Human disease management aims largely to treat infected hosts by chemotherapy, whereas control of animal diseases relies on reducing tsetse populations as well as on drug therapy. The control strategies for animal diseases are carried out and financed by livestock owners, who have an obvious economic incentive. Sustaining largely insecticide-based control at a local level and relying on drugs for treatment of infected hosts for a disease for which there is no evidence of acquired immunity could prove extremely costly in the long run. It is more likely that a combination of several methods in an integrated, phased and area-wide approach would be more effective in controlling these diseases and subsequently improving agricultural output. New approaches that are environmentally acceptable, efficacious and affordable are clearly desirable for control of various medically and agriculturally important insects including tsetse. Here, Serap Aksoy and colleagues discuss molecular genetic approaches to modulate tsetse vector competence.

Modification of arthropod vector competence via symbiotic bacteria

Some of the world's most devastating diseases are transmitted by arthropod vectors. Attempts to control these arthropods are currently being challenged by the widespread appearance of insecticide resistance. It is therefore desirable to develop alternative strategies to complement existing methods of vector control. In this review, Charles Beard, Scott O'Neill, Robert Tesh, Frank Richards and Serap Aksoy present an approach for introducing foreign genes into insects in order to confer refractoriness to vector populations, ie. the inability to transmit disease-causing agents. This approach aims to express foreign anti-parasitic or anti-viral gene products in symbiotic bacteria harbored by insects. The potential use of naturally occurring symbiont-based mechanisms in the spread of such refractory phenotypes is also discussed.

Modeling control objectives for business process compliance

Business process design is primarily driven by process improvement objectives. However, the role of control objectives stemming from regulations and standards is becoming increasingly important for businesses in light of recent events that led to some of the largest scandals in corporate history. As organizations strive to meet compliance agendas, there is an evident need to provide systematic approaches that assist in the understanding of the interplay between (often conflicting) business and control objectives during business process design. In this paper, our objective is twofold. We will firstly present a research agenda in the space of business process compliance, identifying major technical and organizational challenges. We then tackle a part of the overall problem space, which deals with the effective modeling of control objectives and subsequently their propagation onto business process models. Control objective modeling is proposed through a specialized modal logic based on normative systems theory, and the visualization of control objectives on business process models is achieved procedurally. The proposed approach is demonstrated in the context of a purchase-to-pay scenario.

Reactivity of chars and carbons: New insights through molecular modeling

A new model proposed for the gasification of chars and carbons incorporates features of the turbostratic nanoscale structure that exists in such materials. The model also considers the effect of initial surface chemistry and different reactivities perpendicular to the edges and to the faces of the underlying crystallite planes comprising the turbostratic structure. It may be more realistic than earlier models based on pore or grain structure idealizations when the carbon contains large amounts of crystallite matter. Shrinkage of the carbon particles in the chemically controlled regime is also possible due to the random complete gasification of crystallitic planes. This mechanism can explain observations in the literature of particle size reduction. Based on the model predictions, both initial surface chemistry and the number of stacked planes in the crystallites strongly influence the reactivity and particle shrinkage. Its test results agree well with literature data on the air-oxidation of Spherocarb and show that it accurately predicts the variation of particle size with conversion. Model parameters are determined entirely from rate measurements.

Modeling the optical constants of AlxGa1-xAs alloys

The extension of Adachi's model with a Gaussian-like broadening function, in place of Lorentzian, is used to model the optical dielectric function of the alloy AlxGa1-xAs. Gaussian-like broadening is accomplished by replacing the damping constant in the Lorentzian line shape with a frequency dependent expression. In this way, the comparative simplicity of the analytic formulas of the model is preserved, while the accuracy becomes comparable to that of more intricate models, and/or models with significantly more parameters. The employed model accurately describes the optical dielectric function in the spectral range from 1.5 to 6.0 eV within the entire alloy composition range. The relative rms error obtained for the refractive index is below 2.2% for all compositions. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-8979(99)00512-5].