Interval breast cancers in an Australian mammographic screening program

Objective: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurred in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammographic screening service. Design: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. Setting: The Central & Eastern Sydney Service of BreastScreen NSW. Participants: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. Main outcome measures: Interval-cancer rates per 10 000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). Results: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10 000 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 years age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the proportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Central & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas screening trials. Conclusion: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population. Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-cancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requires age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.

Likelihood-based estimation of the regression model with scrambled responses

A significant problem in the collection of responses to potentially sensitive questions, such as relating to illegal, immoral or embarrassing activities, is non-sampling error due to refusal to respond or false responses. Eichhorn & Hayre (1983) suggested the use of scrambled responses to reduce this form of bias. This paper considers a linear regression model in which the dependent variable is unobserved but for which the sum or product with a scrambling random variable of known distribution, is known. The performance of two likelihood-based estimators is investigated, namely of a Bayesian estimator achieved through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme, and a classical maximum-likelihood estimator. These two estimators and an estimator suggested by Singh, Joarder & King (1996) are compared. Monte Carlo results show that the Bayesian estimator outperforms the classical estimators in almost all cases, and the relative performance of the Bayesian estimator improves as the responses become more scrambled.

Evaluation of an immunoassay (EMIT) for mycophenolic acid in plasma from renal transplant recipients compared with a high-performance liquid chromatography assay

Mycophenolic acid is an immunosuppressant administered as a bioavailable ester, mycophenolate mofetil. The pharmacokinetics of mycophenolic acid have been reported to be variable. Accurate measurement of concentrations of this drug could be important to adjust doses. The aim of this study was to compare the enzyme-multiplied immunoassay technique (EMIT [Dade Behring; San Jose, CA, U.S.A.]) for mycophenolic acid with a high-performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) assay using samples collected from renal transplant recipients. The HPLC assay used solid phase extraction and a C18 stationary phase with ultraviolet (UV) detection (254 nm). The immunoassay required no manual sample preparation. Plasma samples (n = 102) from seven patients, collected at various times after a dose, were analyzed using both methods. Both assays fulfilled quality-control criteria. Higher concentrations were consistently measured in patient samples when using EMIT. The mean (+/- standard deviation [SD]) bias (EMIT-HPLC) was 1.88 +/- 0.86 mg/L. The differences in concentrations were higher in the middle of a dosage interval, suggesting that a metabolite might have been responsible for overestimation. Measurement of glucuronide concentrations by HPLC demonstrated only a weak correlation between assay differences and glucuronide concentrations. If the crossreacting substance is active, EMIT could provide a superior measure of immunosuppression; if inactive, further work is needed to improve antibody specificity. In conclusion, it was found that EMIT overestimates the concentration of mycophenolic acid in plasma samples from renal transplant recipients compared with HPLC analysis.

Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci: A new partial epilepsy syndrome with suggestion of linkage to chromosome 2

Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci (FPEVF) joins the recently recognized group of inherited partial epilepsies. We describe an Australian family with 10 individuals with partial seizures over four generations. Detailed electroclinical studies were performed on all affected and 17 clinically unaffected family members. The striking finding was that the clinical features of the seizures and interictal electroencephalographic foci differed among family members and included frontal, temporal, occipital, and centroparietal seizures. Mean age of seizure onset was 13 years (range, 0.75-43 years). Two individuals without seizures had epileptiform abnormalities on electroencephalographic studies. Penetrance of seizures was 62%. A genome-wide search failed to demonstrate definitive linkage, but a suggestion of linkage was found on chromosome 2q with a LOD score of 2.74 at recombination fraction of zero with the marker D2S133. FPEVF differs from the other inherited partial epilepsies where partial seizures in different family members are clinically similar. The inherited nature of this new syndrome may be overlooked because of relatively low penetrance and because of the variability in age at onset and electroclinical features between affected family members.

Bacteria in shrimp pond sediments: their role in mineralizing nutrients and some suggested sampling strategies

Strategies for sampling sediment bacteria were examined in intensive shrimp, Penaeus monodon (Fabricius), ponds in tropical Australia. Stratified sampling of bacteria at the end of the production season showed that the pond centre, containing flocculated sludge, had significantly higher bacterial counts (15.5 X 10(9) g(-1) dw) than the pond periphery (8.1 X 10(9) g(-1) dw), where the action of aerators had swept the pond floor. The variation in bacterial counts between these two zones within a pond was higher than that between sites within each zone or between ponds. Therefore, sampling effort should be focused within these zones: for example, sampling two ponds at six locations within each of the two zones resulted in a coefficient of variation of approximate to 5%. Bacterial numbers in the sediment were highly correlated with sediment grain size, probably because eroded soil particles and organic waste both accumulated in the centre of the pond. Despite high inputs of organic matter added to the ponds, principally as pelleted feeds, the mean bacterial numbers and nutrient concentrations (i.e. organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus) in the sediment were similar to those found in mangrove sediments. This suggests that bacteria are rapidly remineralizing particulates into soluble compounds. Bacterial numbers were highly correlated with organic carbon and total kjeldahl nitrogen in the sediment, suggesting that these were limiting factors to bacterial growth.

Variable temperature and pressure study of the aquation reactions of cobalt(III) and chromium(III) penta- and tetra-amines

Preparation of a series of specific penta- and tetra-amine derivatives of Co-III and Cr-III with a neutral leaving ligand has been carried out in order to accomplish a fine tuning of the associativeness/dissociativeness of their substitution reactions. Spontaneous aquation reactions of the neutral ligands have been studied at variable temperature and pressure. Although rate constants and thermal activation parameters show an important degree of scatter, the values determined for the activation volumes of the substitution process illustrate the mechanistic fine tuning that may be achieved for these reactions. In all cases, in the absence of important steric constraints in the molecule, electronic inductive effects seem to be the most important factor accounting for the dissociative shifts observed both for pentaamine (i.e.Delta V double dagger=+4.0 or +14.0 cm(3) mol(-1) and +5.2 or +16.5 cm(3) mol(-1) for the aquation of cis- or trans-[Co(MeNH2)(NH3)(4)(DMF)](3+) and cis- or trans-[CoL15(DMF)](3+) respectively, where L-15 represents a pentaamine macrocyclic ligand), and tetraamine systems (i.e.Delta V double dagger=+4.1 or +8.4 cm(3) mol(-1) and -10.8 or -7.4 cm(3) mol(-1) for the aquation of cis-[Co(NH3)(4)Cl(DMAC)](2+) (DMAC=dimethylacetamide) or cis-[Co(en)(2)Cl(DMAC)](2+) and cis-[Cr(NH3)(4)Cl(DMF)](2+) or cis -[Cr(en)(2)Cl(DMF)](2+)). From the results, clear evidence is obtained which indicates that, only when the situation is borderline I-a/I-d, or the steric demands are increased dramatically, dissociative shifts are observed; in all other cases electronic inductive effects seem to be dominant for such a tuning of the substitution process.

The serotonin transporter gene and Parkinson's disease

Dysfunction in the serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine) system and reduced serotonin concentrations have been reported in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Serotonin concentrations in neural tissue are controlled by a presynaptic serotonin transporter protein that is encoded by a single gene. Therefore, we investigated whether a polymorphic region in the serotonin transporter gene is associated with PD. Three variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) elements of the serotonin transporter gene were detected by polymerase chain reaction, those with 9, 10, 11 and 12 copies of the repeat element. The 10-copy VNTR element was significantly less common in patients with PD than controls in the univariate analysis (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed no significant differences between patients (n = 198) and controls (n = 200) in the distribution frequencies of 9-and 12-copy alleles and combined genotypes (odds ratio = 1.20; p = 1.71). A positive family history of PD was a strong predictor of disease risk (odds ratio = 2.98; 95% confidence interval 1.51-5.87; p = 0.001). Although slight differences were observed between patient and control groups, these data suggest that defects in serotonin concentrations in patients with PD are unlikely to be due to polymorphisms in the serotonin transporter gene in this large Australian cohort; however, the inverse association observed with the 10-copy allele warrants further investigation. Copyright (C) 2000 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Impact of increasing the re-supply interval on the seasonality of subsidised prescription use in Australia

Objective: To evaluate the impact of increasing the minimum resupply period for prescriptions on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in November 1994. The intervention was designed to reduce the stockpiling of medicines used for chronic medical conditions under the PBS safety net. Methods: Interrupted times series regression analyses were performed on 114 months of PBS drug utilisation data from January 1991 to June 2000. These analyses assessed whether there had been a significant interaction between the onset of the intervention in November 1994 and the extreme levels of drug utilisation in the months of December (peak utilisation) and January (lowest utilisation) respectively. Both serial and 12-month lag autocorrelations were controlled for. Results: The onset of the intervention was associated with a significant reduction in the December peak in drug utilisation; after the introduction of the policy there were 1,150,196 fewer proscriptions on average or that month (95% Cl 708,333-1,592,059). There was, however, no significant change in the low level of utilisation in January. The effect of the policy appears to be decreasing across successive postintervention years. though the odds of a prescription being dispensed in December remained significantly lower in 1999 compared to each of the pre-intervention years (11% vs. 14%) Conclusion: Analysis of the impact of increasing the re-supply period for PBS prescriptions showed that the magnitude of peak utilisation in December had been markedly reduced by the policy, though this effect appears to be decreasing over time. Continued monitoring and policy review is warranted in order to ensure that the initial effect of the intervention be maintained.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Acute high-intensity interval training improves T-vent and peak power output in highly trained males.

This study examined the effects of four high-intensity interval-training (HIT) sessions performed over 2 weeks on peak volume of oxygen uptake (VO2peak), the first and second ventilatory thresholds (UT VT2) and peak power output (PPO) in highly trained cyclists. Fourteen highly trained male cyclists (VO2peak = 67.5 +/- 3.7 ml . kg(-1) . min(-1)) performed a ramped cycle test to determine VO2peak VT1 VT2, and PPO. Subjects were divided equally into a HIT group and a control group. The HIT group performed four HIT sessions (20 x 60 s at PPO, 120 s recovery); the V-02peak test was repeated <I wk after the HIT program. Control subjects maintained their regular training program and were reassessed under the same timeline. There was no change in V0(2peak) for either group; however, the HIT group showed a significantly greater increase in VT1, (+22% vs. -3%), VT2 (+15% vs. -1%), and PPO (+4.3 vs. -.4%) compared to controls (all P <.05). This study has demonstrated that HIT can improve VT1, VT2,, and PPO, following only four HIT sessions in already highly trained cyclists.

Spatial data mining for enhanced soil map modelling

The principle of using induction rules based on spatial environmental data to model a soil map has previously been demonstrated Whilst the general pattern of classes of large spatial extent and those with close association with geology were delineated small classes and the detailed spatial pattern of the map were less well rendered Here we examine several strategies to improve the quality of the soil map models generated by rule induction Terrain attributes that are better suited to landscape description at a resolution of 250 m are introduced as predictors of soil type A map sampling strategy is developed Classification error is reduced by using boosting rather than cross validation to improve the model Further the benefit of incorporating the local spatial context for each environmental variable into the rule induction is examined The best model was achieved by sampling in proportion to the spatial extent of the mapped classes boosting the decision trees and using spatial contextual information extracted from the environmental variables.

Variable expression of mental retardation, autism, seizures, and dystonic hand movements in two families with an identical ARX gene mutation

Two families, originally diagnosed as having nonsyndromic X-linked mental retardation (NSXLMR), were reviewed when it was shown that they had a 24-bp duplication (428-45 1dup(24bp)) in the ARX gene [Stromme et al., 2002: Nat Genet 30:441-445]. This same duplication had also been found in three other families: one with X-linked infantile spasms and hypsarrhythmia (X-linked West syndrome, MIM 308350) and two with XLMR and dystonic movements of the hands (Partington syndrome, MIM 309510). On review, manifestations of both West and Partington syndromes were found in some individuals from both families. In addition, it was found that one individual had autism and two had autistic behavior, one of whom had epilepsy. The degree of mental retardation ranged from mild to severe. A GCG trinucleotide expansion (GCG)10+7 and a deletion of 1,517 by in the ARX gene have also been found in association with the West syndrome, and a missense mutation (1058C >T) in a family with a newly recognized form of myoclonic epilepsy, severe mental retardation, and spastic paraplegia [Scheffer et al., 2002: Neurology, in press]. Evidently all these disorders are expressions of mutations in the same gene. It remains to be seen what proportions of patients with infantile spasms, focal dystonia, autism, epilepsy, and nonsyndromic mental retardation are accounted for by mutations in the ARX gene. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Semiochemicals and social signaling in the wild European rabbit in Australia: II. Variations in chemical composition of chin gland secretion across sampling sites

The volatile components of the chin gland secretion of the wild European rabbit, Oryctolagus cuniculus (L.), were investigated with the use of gas chromatography. Studies of the chemical nature of this secretion by previous workers demonstrated that it was important in the maintenance of social structure in this species. This study identified 34 different volatile components that consist primarily of aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons. Especially common are a series of alkyl-substituted benzene derivatives that provide most of the compound diversity in the secretion. Samples of chin gland secretion collected from animals at three different geographical locations, separated by more than 100 km, showed significant differences in composition. This work suggests that variation among populations needs to be considered when undertaking semiochemical research. Alternate nonparametric methods are also used for the analysis of chromatographic data.