Role of cytokine gene polymorphisms in acute rejection and renal impairment after liver transplantation

Although immunosuppressive regimens are effective, rejection occurs in up to 50% of patients after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), and there is concern about side effects from long-term therapy. Knowledge of clinical and immunogenetic variables may allow tailoring of immunosuppressive therapy to patients according to their potential risks. We studied the association between transforming growth factor-beta, interleukin-10, and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) gene polymorphisms and graft rejection and renal impairment in 121 white liver transplant recipients. Clinical variables were collected retrospectively, and creatinine clearance was estimated using the formula of Cockcroft and Gault. Biallelic polymorphisms were detected using polymerase chain reaction-based methods. Thirty-seven of 121 patients (30.6%) developed at least 1 episode of rejection. Multivariate analysis showed that Child-Pugh score (P =.001), immune-mediated liver disease (P =.018), normal pre-OLT creatinine clearance (P =.037), and fewer HLA class 1 mismatches (P =.038) were independently associated with rejection, Renal impairment occurred in 80% of patients and was moderate or severe in 39%, Clinical variables independently associated with renal impairment were female sex (P =.001), pre-OLT renal dysfunction (P =.0001), and a diagnosis of viral hepatitis (P =.0008), There was a significant difference in the frequency of TNF-alpha -308 alleles among the primary liver diseases. After adjustment for potential confounders and a Bonferroni correction, the association between the TNF-alpha -308 polymorphism and graft rejection approached significance (P =.06). Recipient cytokine genotypes do not have a major independent role in graft rejection or renal impairment after OLT, Additional studies of immunogenetic factors require analysis of large numbers of patients with appropriate phenotypic information to avoid population stratification, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions.

Effects of moist chilling and solid matrix priming on germination of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) seeds

Loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) seeds from sources with a mild climate under maritime influence (North Carolina) required shorter moist chilling to achieve maximum germination vigor than seeds from sources with a harsher continental climate (Oklahoma). Solid matrix priming (SMP) for 6 d achieved as much as 60 d of moist chilling to improve rapidity, synchrony and completeness of germination for three of the four families studied. SMP after moist chilling increased the rapidity, synchrony and completeness of germination. The benefit of SMP was greatest for non-stratified seeds and the benefit decreased with length of moist chilling. In general, delaying planting for one week after SMP had minor effects on germination when seeds were kept in the SMP matrix at 4 degreesC. Delayed planting after SMP can increase germination rapidity and synchrony of seeds that have received long moist chilling and reduce the benefit of SMP in non-moist-chilled seeds.

Sun exposure and interaction with family history in risk of melanoma, Queensland, Australia

Sun exposure is the main environmental risk factor for melanoma, but the timing of exposure during life that confers increased risk is controversial. Here we provide the first report of the association between lifetime and age-specific cumulative ultraviolet exposure and cutaneous melanoma in Queensland, Australia, an area of high solar radiation, and examine the association separately for families at high, intermediate and low familial melanoma risk. Subjects were a population-based sample of melanoma cases diagnosed and registered in Queensland between 1982 and 1990 and their relatives. The analysis included 1,263 cases and relatives with confirmed cutaneous melanoma and 3,111 first-degree relatives without melanoma as controls. Data an lifetime residence and sun exposure, family history and other melanoma risk factors were collected by a mailed questionnaire. Using conditional multiple logistic regression with stratification by family, cumulative sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood after age 20 was significantly associated with melanoma, with estimated relative risks of 1.15 per 5,000 minimal erythemal doses (MEDs) from age 5 to 12 years, and 1.52 per 5 MEDs/day from age 20. There was no association with sun exposure in families at high familial melanoma risk. History of nonmelanoma skin cancer (relative risk [RR] = 1.26) and multiple sunburns (RR = 1.31) were significant risk factors. These findings indicate that sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood are important determinants of melanoma but not in those rare families with high melanoma susceptibility, in which genetic factors are likely to be more important. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Combined hydraulic and biological modelling and full-scale validation of SBR process

The biological reactions during the settling and decant periods of Sequencing Batch Reactors (SBRs) are generally ignored as they are not easily measured or described by modelling approaches. However, important processes are taking place, and in particular when the influent is fed into the bottom of the reactor at the same time (one of the main features of the UniFed process), the inclusion of these stages is crucial for accurate process predictions. Due to the vertical stratification of both liquid and solid components, a one-dimensional hydraulic model is combined with a modified ASM2d biological model to allow the prediction of settling velocity, sludge concentration, soluble components and biological processes during the non-mixed periods of the SBR. The model is calibrated on a full-scale UniFed SBR system with tracer breakthrough tests, depth profiles of particulate and soluble compounds and measurements of the key components during the mixed aerobic period. This model is then validated against results from an independent experimental period with considerably different operating parameters. In both cases, the model is able to accurately predict the stratification and most of the biological reactions occurring in the sludge blanket and the supernatant during the non-mixed periods. Together with a correct description of the mixed aerobic period, a good prediction of the overall SBR performance can be achieved.

Use of stress echocardiography to predict mortality in patients with diabetes and known or suspected coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVE - This study sought to determine whether stress echocardiography using exercise (when feasible) or dobutamine echo could be used to predict mortality in patients with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Stress echo was performed in 937 patients with diabetes (aged 59 +/- 13 years, 529 men) for symptom evaluation (42%) and follow-up of known coronary artery disease (CAD) (58%). Stress echocardiography using exercise was performed in 333 patients able to exercise maximally, and dobutamine echo using a standard dobutamine stress was used in 604 patients. Patients were followed for less than or equal to9 years (mean 3.9 +/- 2.3) for all-cause mortality. RESULTS - Normal studies were obtained in 567 (60%) patients; 29% had resting left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, and 25% had ischemia. Abnormalities were confined to one territory in 183 (20%) patients and to multiple territories in 187 (20%) patients. Death (in 275 [29%] patients) was predicted by referral for pharmacologic stress (hazard ratio [HR] 3.94, P < 0.0001), ischemia (1.77, P <0.0001), age (1.02, P = 0.002), and heart failure (1.54, P = 0.01). The risk of death in patients With a normal scan was 4% per year, and this was associated with age and selection for pharmacologic stress testing. In stepwise models replicating the sequence of clinical evaluation, the predictive power of independent clinical predictors (age, selection for pharmacologic stress, previous infarction, and heart failure; model chi(2) = 104.8) was significantly enhanced by addition of stress echo data (model chi(2) = 122.9). CONCLUSIONS - The results of stress echo are independent predictors of death in diabetic patients with known or suspected CAD.. Ischemia adds risk that is incremental to clinical risks and LV dysfunction.

Prediction of outcomes in hypertensive patients with suspected coronary disease

Stress echocardiography has been shown to improve the diagnosis of coronary artery disease in the presence of hypertension, but its value in prognostic evaluation is unclear. We sought to determine whether stress echocardiography could be used to predict mortality in 2363 patients with hypertension, who were followed for up to 10 years (mean 4.0+/-1.8) for death and revascularization. Stress echocardiograms were normal in 1483 patients (63%), 16% had resting left ventricular (LV) dysfunction alone, and 21% had ischemia. Abnormalities were confined to one territory in 489 patients (21%) and to multiple territories in 365 patients (15%). Cardiac death was less frequent among the patients able to exercise than among those undergoing dobutamine echocardiography (4% versus 7%, P<0.001). The risk of death in patients with a negative stress echocardiogram was <1% per year. Ischemia identified by stress echocardiography was an independent predictor of mortality in those able to exercise (hazard ratio 2.21, 95% confidence intervals 1.10 to 4.43, P=0.0001) as well as those undergoing dobutamine echo (hazard ratio 2.39, 95% confidence intervals 1.53 to 3.75, P=0.0001); other predictors were age, heart failure, resting LV dysfunction, and the Duke treadmill score. In stepwise models replicating the sequence of clinical evaluation, the results of stress echocardiography added prognostic power to models based on clinical and stress-testing variables. Thus, the results of stress echocardiography are an independent predictor of cardiac death in hypertensive patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease, incremental to clinical risks and exercise results.

Usefulness of clinical risk markers and ischemic threshold to stratify risk in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery

The risk of cardiac events in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery is dependent on their clinical characteristics and the results of stress testing. The purpose of this study was to develop a composite approach to defining levels of risk and to examine whether different approaches to prophylaxis influenced this prediction of outcome. One hundred forty-five consecutive patients (aged 68 +/- 9 years, 79 men) with >1 clinical risk variable were studied with standard dobutamine-atropine stress echo before major noncardiac surgery. Risk levels were stratified according to the presence of ischemia (new or worsening wall motion abnormality), ischemic threshold (heart rate at development of ischemia), and number of clinical risk variables. Patients were followed for perioperative events (during hospital admission) and death or infarction over the subsequent 16 10 months. Ten perioperative events occurred in 105 patients who proceeded to surgery (10%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5% to 17%), 40 being cancelled because of cardiac or other risk. No ischemia was identified in 56 patients, 1 of whom (1.8%) had a perioperative infarction. Of the 49 patients with ischemia, 22 (45%) had 1 or 2 clinical risk factors; 2 (9%, 95% CI 1% to 29%) had events. Another 15 patients had a high ischemic threshold and 3 or 4 risk factors; 3 (20%, 95% Cl 4% to 48%) had events. Twelve patients had a low ischemic threshold and 3 or 4 risk factors; 4 (33%, 95% CI 10% to 65%) had events. Preoperative myocardial revascularization was performed in only 3 patients, none of whom had events. Perioperative and long-term events occurred despite the use of beta blockers; 7 of 41 eta blocker-treated patients had a perioperative event (17%, 95% CI 7% to 32%); these treated patients were at higher anticipated risk than untreated patients (20 +/- 24% vs 10 +/- 19%, p = 0.02). The total event rate over late follow-up was 13%, and was predicted by dobutamine-atropine stress echo results and heart rate response. (C) 2002 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Analysis of the wind field and heat budget in an alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions

Observational data collected in the Lake Tekapo hydro catchment of the Southern Alps in New Zealand are used to analyse the wind and temperature fields in the alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions. Measurements from surface stations, pilot balloon and tethersonde soundings, Doppler sodar and an instrumented light aircraft provide evidence of multi-scale interacting wind systems, ranging from microscale slope winds to mesoscale coast-to-basin flows. Thermal forcing of the winds occurred due to differential heating as a consequence of orography and heterogeneous surface features, which is quantified by heat budget and pressure field analysis. The daytime vertical temperature structure was characterised by distinct layering. Features of particular interest are the formation of thermal internal boundary layers due to the lake-land discontinuity and the development of elevated mixed layers. The latter were generated by advective heating from the basin and valley sidewalls by slope winds and by a superimposed valley wind blowing from the basin over Lake Tekapo and up the tributary Godley Valley. Daytime heating in the basin and its tributary valleys caused the development of a strong horizontal temperature gradient between the basin atmosphere and that over the surrounding landscape, and hence the development of a mesoscale heat low over the basin. After noon, air from outside the basin started flowing over mountain saddles into the basin causing cooling in the lowest layers, whereas at ridge top height the horizontal air temperature gradient between inside and outside the basin continued to increase. In the early evening, a more massive intrusion of cold air caused rapid cooling and a transition to a rather uniform slightly stable stratification up to about 2000 m agl. The onset time of this rapid cooling varied about 1-2 h between observation sites and was probably triggered by the decay of up-slope winds inside the basin, which previously countered the intrusion of air over the surrounding ridges. The intrusion of air from outside the basin continued until about mid-night, when a northerly mountain wind from the Godley Valley became dominant. The results illustrate the extreme complexity that can be caused by the operation of thermal forcing processes at a wide range of spatial scales.

An assessment of maturity from anthropometric measurements

Purpose: The range of variability between individuals of the same chronological age (CA) in somatic and biological maturity is large and especially accentuated around the adolescent growth spurt. Maturity assessment is an important consideration when dealing with adolescents, from both a research perspective and youth sports stratification. A noninvasive, practical method predicting years from peak height velocity (a maturity offset value) by using anthropometric variables is developed in one sample and cross-validated in two different samples. Methods: Gender specific multiple regression equations were calculated on a sample of 152 Canadian children aged 8-16 yr (79 boys; 73 girls) who were followed through adolescence from 1991 to 1997, The equations included three somatic dimensions (height, sitting height, and leg length), CA, and their interactions. The equations were cross-validated on a Combined sample of Canadian (71 boys, 40 girls measured from 1964 through 1973) and Flemish children (50 boys, 48 girls measured from 1985 through 1999). Results: The coefficient of determination (R2) for the boys' model was 0.92 and for the girls' model 0.91 the SEEs were 0.49 and 0.50, respectively, Mean difference between actual and predicted maturity offset for the verification samples was 0.24 (SD 0.65) yr in boys and 0,001 (SD 0.68) yr in girls. Conclusion: Although the cross-validation meets statistical standards or acceptance, caution 1, warranted with regard to implementation. It is recommended that maturity offset be considered as a categorical rather than a continuous assessment. Nevertheless, the equations presented are a reliable, noninvasive and a practical solution for the measure of biological maturity for matching adolescent athletes.

Transport safety for older people: A study of their experiences, perceptions and management needs

With evidence of increasing accident risk due to age-related declines in health and cognition affecting driver performance, there is a need for research promoting safe mobility of older people. The present study aimed to identify transport options and licensing issues for a group of older people in an Australian community. Ninety-five participants aged 75 and over were interviewed about their driving status and accident record and tested for cognitive ability. After stratification on cognitive level and driver status (current, ex-driver or non-driver), 30 were selected for further in-depth interviews concerning demographics, licence status and impact of change, travel options available and used, and travel characteristics. Considerable reliance on the motor vehicle as the mode of transport and the decision to cease driving were major quality-of-life issues. There was little evidence of planning and support in making the decision to stop driving. Some differences in transport decisions on the basis of cognitive level were evident; however, people with severely compromised cognitive ability (and, therefore, unable to give informed consent) had been excluded. The study suggested the need for resources to assist older people/carers/health professionals to plan for the transition from driver to non-driver and to manage alternative transport options more effectively

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Use of an accelerated chest pain assessment protocol in patients at intermediate risk of adverse cardiac events

Objective: To determine the feasibility, safety and effectiveness of a structured clinical pathway for stratification and management of patients presenting with chest pain and classified as having intermediate risk of adverse cardiac outcomes in the subsequent six months. Design: Prospective clinical audit. Participants and setting: 630 consecutive patients who presented to the emergency department of a metropolitan tertiary care hospital between January 2000 and June 2001 with chest pain and intermediate-risk features. Intervention: Use of the Accelerated Chest Pain Assessment Protocol (ACPAP), as advocated by the Management of unstable angina guidelines - 2000 from the National Heart Foundation and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand. Main outcome measure: Adverse cardiac events during six-month follow-up. Results: 409 patients (65%) were reclassified as low risk and discharged at a mean of 14 hours after assessment in the chest pain unit. None had missed myocardial infarctions, while three (1%) had cardiac events at six months (all elective revascularisation procedures, with no readmissions with acute coronary syndromes). Another 110 patients (17%) were reclassified as high risk, and 21 (19%) of these had cardiac events (mainly revascularisations) by six months. Patients who were unable to exercise or had non-diagnostic exercise stress test results (equivocal risk) had an intermediate cardiac event rate (8%). Conclusions: This study validates use of ACPAP. The protocol eliminated missed myocardial infarction; allowed early, safe discharge of low-risk patients; and led to early identification and management of high-risk patients.