Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Effect of rolling on dissipation in fault gouges

Sliding and rolling are two outstanding deformation modes in granular media. The first one induces frictional dissipation whereas the latter one involves deformation with negligible resistance. Using numerical simulations on two-dimensional shear cells, we investigate the effect of the grain rotation on the energy dissipation and the strength of granular materials under quasistatic shear deformation. Rolling and sliding are quantified in terms of the so-called Cosserat rotations. The observed spontaneous formation of vorticity cells and clusters of rotating bearings may provide an explanation for the long standing heat flow paradox of earthquake dynamics.

Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Fundamental Skills in Physics: Embedded Learning

Student attitudes towards a subject affect their learning. For students in physics service courses, relevance is emphasised by vocational applications. A similar strategy is being used for students who aspire to continued study of physics, in an introduction to fundamental skills in experimental physics – the concepts, computational tools and practical skills involved in appropriately obtaining and interpreting measurement data. An educational module is being developed that aims to enhance the student experience by embedding learning of these skills in the practicing physicist’s activity of doing an experiment (gravity estimation using a rolling pendulum). The group concentrates on particular skills prompted by challenges such as: • How can we get an answer to our question? • How good is our answer? • How can it be improved? This explicitly provides students the opportunity to consider and construct their own ideas. It gives them time to discuss, digest and practise without undue stress, thereby assisting them to internalise core skills. Design of the learning activity is approached in an iterative manner, via theoretical and practical considerations, with input from a range of teaching staff, and subject to trials of prototypes.