Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Hormonal factors and risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage - An international population-based, case-control study

Background and Purpose-Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is more common in women than in men, but the role of hormonal factors in its etiology remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hormonal factors and risk of SAH in women. Methods-This was a prospective, multicenter, population-based, case-control study performed in 4 major urban centers in Australia and New Zealand. Two hundred sixty-eight female cases of first-ever aneurysmal SAH occurred during 1995-1998. Controls were 286 frequency-matched women from the general population of each center. Outcome measures included risk of SAH associated with use of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs), hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and various endogenous hormonal factors including menstrual patterns, parity, age at birth of first child, and breast-feeding practices. Results-Cases and controls did not differ with regard to menstrual and reproductive history except in age at bir th of first child, where older age was associated with reduced risk of SAH (odds ratio [OR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43, 0.91). Relative to never use of HRT, the adjusted OR for over use of HRT was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.41, 0.98), which did not alter significantly after further adjustment for possible confounding factors. Borderline evidence of an inverse association was detected for past use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.30, 1.13) and current use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.40, 1.13), but there was no evidence of an association for use of OCPs (adjusted OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.58, 1.60). Conclusions-The risks of SAH are lower in women whose first pregnancy is at an older age and women who have ever used HRT but not OCPs. The findings suggest an independent etiologic role for hormonal factors in the pathogenesis of aneurysmal SAH and provide support for a protective role fur HRT on risk of SAH in postmenopausal women.

How to do safe sternal reentry and the risk factors of redo cardiac surgery: A 21-year review with zero major cardiac injury

Objectives: Resternotomy is a common part of cardiac surgical practice. Associated with resternotomy are the risks of cardiac injury and catastrophic hemorrhage and the subsequent elevated morbidity and mortality in the operating room or during the postoperative period. The technique of direct vision resternotomy is safe and has fewer, if any, serious cardiac injuries. The technique, the reduced need for groin cannulation and the overall low operative mortality and morbidity are the focus of this restrospective analysis. Methods: The records of 495 patients undergoing 546 resternotomies over a 21-year period to January 2000 were reviewed. All consecutive reoperations by the one surgeon comprised patients over the age of 20 at first resternotomy: M:F 343:203, mean age 57 years (range 20 to 85, median age 60). The mean NYHA grade was 2.3 [with 67 patients (1), 273 (11),159 (111), 43 (IV), and 4 (V classification)] with elective reoperation in 94.6%. Cardiac injury was graded into five groups and the incidence and reasons for groin cannulation estimated. The morbidity and mortality as a result of the reoperation and resternotomy were assessed. Results: The hospital/30 day mortality was 2.9% (95% Cl: 1.6%-4.4%) (16 deaths) over the 21 years. First (481), second (53), and third (12) resternotomies produced 307 uncomplicated technical reopenings, 203 slower but uncomplicated procedures, 9 minor superficial cardiac lacerations, and no moderate or severe cardiac injuries. Direct vision resternotomy is crystalized into the principle that only adhesions that are visualized from below are divided and only sternal bone that is freed of adhesions is sewn. Groin exposure was never performed prophylactically for resternotomy. Fourteen patients (2.6%) had such cannulation for aortic dissection/aneurysm (9 patients), excessive sternal adherence of cardiac structures (3 patients), presurgery cardiac arrest (1 patient), and high aortic cannulation desired and not possible (1 patient). The average postop blood loss was 594 mL (95% CI:558-631) in the first 12 hours. The need to return to the operating room for control of excessive bleeding was 2% (11 patients). Blood transfusion was given in 65% of the resternotomy procedures over the 21 years (mean 854 mL 95% Cl 765-945 mL) and 41% over the last 5 years. Conclusions: The technique of direct vision resternotomy has been associated with zero moderate or major cardiac injury/catastrophic hemorrhage at reoperation. Few patients have required groin cannulation. In the postoperative period, there was acceptable blood loss, transfusion rates, reduced morbidity, and moderate low mortality for this potentially high risk group.

Active and passive smoking and the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage - An international population-based case-control study

Background and Purpose - This study was undertaken to better clarify the risks associated with cigarette smoking and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods - The study included 432 incident cases of SAH frequency matched to 473 community SAH-free controls to determine dose-dependent associations of active and passive smoking ( at home) and smoking cessation with SAH. Results - Compared with never smokers not exposed to passive smoking, the adjusted odds ratio for SAH among current smokers was 5.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1 to 8.1); for past smokers, 1.2 ( 95% CI, 0.8 to 2.0); and for passive smokers, 0.9 ( 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.5). Current and lifetime exposures showed a clear dose-dependent effect, and risks appeared more prominent in women and for aneurysmal SAH. Approximately 1 in 3 cases of SAH could be attributed to current smoking, but risks decline quickly after smoking cessation, even among heavy smokers. Conclusions - A strong positive association was found between cigarette smoking and SAH, especially for aneurysmal SAH and women, which is virtually eliminated within a few years of smoking cessation. Large opportunities exist for preventing SAH through smoking avoidance and cessation programs.

In Australia are people born in other countries at higher risk of road trauma than locally born people?

This study examined whether people born in other countries had higher rates of death and hospitalization due to road crashes than people born in Australia. Data on deaths that occurred in the whole of Australia between 1994 and 1997 and hospitalizations that occurred in the state of New South Wales, Australia, between I July 1995 and 30 June 1997 due to road crashes were analyzed. The rates of death and hospitalization, adjusted for age and area of residence, were calculated using population data from the 1996 Australian census. The study categorized people born in other countries according to the language (English speaking, non-English speaking) and the road convention (left-hand side, right-hand side) of their country of birth. Australia has the left-hand side driving convention. The study found that drivers born in other countries had rates of death or hospitalization due to road trauma equal to or below those of Australian born drivers. In contrast, pedestrians born in other countries, especially older pedestrians had higher rates of death and hospitalization due to road crashes. Pedestrians aged 60 years or more born in non-English speaking countries where traffic travels on the right-hand side of the road had risks about twice those of Australian born pedestrians in the same age group. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.

(Review) Body mass index and risk of diabetes mellitus in the Asia-Pacific region

Few prospective data from the Asia Pacific region are available relating body mass index to the risk of diabetes. Our objective was to provide reliable age, sex and region specific estimates of the associations between body mass index and diabetes. Twenty-seven cohort studies from Asia, New Zealand and Australia, including 154,989 participants, contributed 1,244,793 person-years of follow-up. Outcome data included a combination of incidence of diabetes (based on blood glucose measurements) and fatal diabetes events. Hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models, stratified by sex and cohort, and adjusted for age at risk and smoking. During follow-up (mean = 8 years), 75 fatal diabetes events and 242 new cases of diabetes were documented. There were continuous positive associations between baseline body mass index and risk of diabetes with each 2 kg/m(2) lower body mass index associated with a 27% (23-30%) lower risk of diabetes. The associations were stronger in younger age groups, and regional comparisons demonstrated slightly stronger associations in Asian than in Australasian cohorts (P = 0.04). This overview provides evidence of a strong continuous association between body mass index and diabetes in the Asia Pacific region. The results indicate considerable potential for reduction in incidence of diabetes with population-wide lowering of body mass index in this region.

Overweight and obesity increase the risk of coronary heart disease: A pooled analysis of 30 prospective studies

The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Cigarette smoking and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (Australia)

Objectives: We studied the association between cigarette smoking and ovarian cancer in a population-based case-control study. Methods: A total of 794 women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer who were aged 18-79 years and resident in one of three Australian states were interviewed, together with 855 controls aged 18-79 years selected at random from the electoral roll from the same states. Information was obtained about cigarette smoking and other factors including age, parity, oral contraceptive use, and reproductive factors. We estimated the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with cigarette smoking, accounting for histologic type, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors. Results: Women who had ever smoked cigarettes were more likely to develop ovarian cancer than women who had never smoked (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.9). Risk was greater for ovarian cancers of borderline malignancy (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-4.1) than for invasive tumors (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) and the histologic subtype most strongly associated overall was the mucinous subtype among both current smokers (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.8-5.7) and past smokers (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-3.9). Conclusions: These data extend recent findings and suggest that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, especially mucinous and borderline mucinous types. From a public health viewpoint, this is one of the few reports of a potentially avoidable risk factor for ovarian cancer.

Dietary fat intake and risk of type 2 diabetes in women

Background: The long-term relations between specific types of dietary fat and risk of type 2 diabetes remain unclear. Objective: Our objective was to examine the relations between dietary fat intakes and the risk of type 2 diabetes. Design: We prospectively followed 84204 women aged 34–59 y with no diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer in 1980. Detailed dietary information was assessed at baseline and updated in 1984, 1986, and 1990 by using validated questionnaires. Relative risks of type 2 diabetes were obtained from pooled logistic models adjusted for nondietary and dietary covariates. Results: During 14 y of follow-up, 2507 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were documented. Total fat intake, compared with equivalent energy intake from carbohydrates, was not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes; for a 5% increase in total energy from fat, the relative risk (RR) was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.02). Intakes of saturated or monounsaturated fatty acids were also not significantly associated with the risk of diabetes. However, for a 5% increase in energy from polyunsaturated fat, the RR was 0.63 (0.53, 0.76; P < 0.0001) and for a 2% increase in energy from trans fatty acids the RR was 1.39 (1.15, 1.67; P = 0.0006). We estimated that replacing 2% of energy from trans fatty acids isoenergetically with polyunsaturated fat would lead to a 40% lower risk (RR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.75). Conclusions: These data suggest that total fat and saturated and monounsaturated fatty acid intakes are not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in women, but that trans fatty acids increase and polyunsaturated fatty acids reduce risk. Substituting nonhydrogenated polyunsaturated fatty acids for trans fatty acids would likely reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes substantially.

The microsomal epoxide hydrolase Tyr113His polymorphism: Association with risk of ovarian cancer

Functional significance has been demonstrated in vitro for the exon 3 T-->C Tyr113His amino acid substitution polymorphism of the microsomal epoxide hydrolase (EPHX) gene. The higher activity or fast TT genotype was previously reported to be associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer, and this association may reflect enhanced activation of endogenous or exogenous substrates to more reactive and mutagenic derivatives. Components of cigarette smoke are examples of exogenous substrates subject to such bioactivation, and smoking exposure may thus modify the risk associated with the EPHX polymorphism. We examined 545 cases of epithelial ovarian cancer and 287 unaffected controls for this EPHXT-C genetic variant to investigate whether, in the Australian population, the TT genotype was associated with (i) specific ovarian tumor characteristics; (ii) risk of ovarian cancer, overall or for specific subgroups; and (iii) risk of ovarian cancer in smokers specifically. Genotyping was carried out using the Perkin-Elmer ABI Prism 7700 Sequence Detection System for fluorogenic polymerase chain reaction allelic discrimination. Stratification of the ovarian cancer cases according to tumor behavior (low malignant potential or invasive), grade, stage, and p53 immunohistochemical status failed to show any heterogeneity with respect to the genotype defined by the EPHX polymorphism. There was a suggestion of heterogeneity with respect to histologic subtype (P= 0.03), largely due to a decreased frequency of the TT genotype in endometrioid tumors. EPHX genotype distribution did not differ significantly between unaffected controls and ovarian cancer cases (overall, low malignant potential, or invasive) either overall or after stratification by smoking status. However, the TT genotype was associated with a decreased risk of invasive ovarian cancer of the endometrioid subtype specifically (age-adjusted odds ratio = 0.38, 95% confidence interval=0.17-0.87). The results suggest that the proposed EPHX-mediated bioactivation of components of cigarette smoke to mutagenic forms is unlikely to be involved in the etiology of ovarian cancer in general but that a greater rate of EPHX-mediated detoxification may decrease the risk of endometrioid ovarian cancer. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Polymorphisms at the glutathione S-transferase GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTP1 loci: risk of ovarian cancer by histological subtype

The phase II glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) GSTT1, GSTM1 and GSTP1 catalyse glutathione-mediated reduction of exogenous and endogenous electrophiles. These GSTs have broad and overlapping substrate specificities and it has been hypothesized that allelic variants associated with less effective detoxification of potential carcinogens may confer an increased susceptibility to cancer. To assess the role of GST gene variants in ovarian cancer development, we screened 285 epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 299 unaffected controls for the GSTT1 deletion (null) variant, the GSTM1 deletion (null) variant and the GSTP1 codon 104 A-->G Ile-->Val amino acid substitution variant, The frequencies of the GSTT1, GSTM1 and GSTP1 polymorphic variants did not vary with tumour behaviour (low malignant potential or invasive) or p53 immunohistochemical status. There was a suggestion that ovarian cancers of the endometrioid or clear cell histological subtype had a higher frequency of the GSTT1 and GSTM1 deletion genotype than other histological subgroups. The GSTT1, GSTM1 and GSTP1 genotype distributions did not differ significantly between unaffected controls and ovarian cancer cases (overall or invasive cancers only). However, the GSTM1 null genotype was associated with increased risk of endometrioid/clear cell invasive cancer [age-adjusted OR (95% CI) = 2.04 (1.01-4.09), P = 0.05], suggesting that deletion of GSTM1 may increase the risk of ovarian cancer of these histological subtypes specifically. This marginally significant finding will require verification by independent studies.

No significant association between progesterone receptor exon 4 Val660Leu G/T polymorphism and risk of ovarian cancer

Epidemiological studies suggest that ovarian cancer is an endocrine-related tumour, and progesterone exposure specifically may decrease the risk of ovarian cancer. To assess whether the progesterone receptor (PR) exon 4 valine to leucine amino acid variant is associated with specific tumour characteristics or with overall risk of ovarian cancer, we examined 551 cases of epithelial ovarian cancer and 298 unaffected controls for the underlying G-->T nucleotide substitution polymorphism. Stratification of the ovarian cancer cases according to tumour behaviour (low malignant potential or invasive), histology, grade or stage failed to reveal any heterogeneity with respect to the genotype defined by the PR exon 4 polymorphism. Furthermore, the genotype distribution did not differ significantly between ovarian cancer cases and unaffected controls. Compared with the GG genotype, the age-adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for risk of ovarian cancer was 0.78 (0.57-1.08) for the GT genotype, and 1.39 (0.47-4.14) for the TT genotype. In conclusion, the PR exon 4 codon 660 leucine variant encoded by the T allele does not appear to be associated with ovarian tumour behaviour, histology, stage or grade. This variant is also not associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer, and is unlikely to be associated with a large decrease in ovarian cancer risk, although we cannot rule out a moderate inverse association between the GT genotype and ovarian cancer.

A single nucleotide polymorphism in the 5' untranslated region of RAD51 and risk of cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers

RAD51 colocalizes with both BRCA1 and BRCA2, and genetic variants in RAD51 would be candidate BRCA1/2 modifiers. We searched for RAD51 polymorphisms by sequencing 20 individuals. We compared the polymorphism allele frequencies between female BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with and without breast or ovarian cancer and between population-based ovarian cancer cases with BRCA1/2 mutations to cases and controls without mutations. We discovered two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at positions 135 g-->c and 172 g-->t of the 5' untranslated region. In an initial group of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, 14 (21%) of 67 breast cancer cases carried a c allele at RAD51:135 g-->c, whereas 8 (7%) of 119 women without breast cancer carried this allele. In a second set of 466 mutation carriers from three centers, the association of RAD51:135 g-->c with breast cancer risk was not confirmed. Analyses restricted to the 216 BRCA2 mutation carriers, however, showed a statistically significant association of the 135 c allele with the risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence limit, 1.4-40). BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with ovarian cancer were only about one half as likely to carry the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP. Analysis of the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP in 738 subjects from an Israeli ovarian cancer case-control study was consistent with a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with the c allele. We have identified a RAD51 5' untranslated region SNP that may be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA2 mutation carriers. The biochemical basis of this risk modifier is currently unknown.