Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Male-by-female interactions influence fertilization success and mediate the benefits of polyandry in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma

Numerous studies have reported that females benefit from mating with multiple males (polyandry) by minimizing the probability of fertilization by genetically incompatible sperm. Few, however, have directly attributed variation in female reproductive success to the fertilizing capacity of sperm. In this study we report on two experiments that investigated the benefits of polyandry and the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization in the free-spawning Australian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma. In the first experiment we used a paired (split clutch) experimental design and compared fertilization rates within female egg clutches under polyandry (eggs exposed to the sperm from two males simultaneously) and monandry (eggs from the same female exposed to sperm from each of the same two males separately). Our analysis revealed a significant fertilization benefit of polyandry and strong interacting effects of males and females at fertilization. Further analysis of these data strongly suggested that the higher rates of fertilization in the polyandry treatment were due to an overrepresentation of fertilizations due to the most compatible male. To further explore the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization we performed a second factorial experiment in which four mates were crossed with two females (in all eight combinations). In addition to confirming that fertilization success is influenced by male X female interactions, this latter experiment revealed that both sexes contributed significant variance to the observed patterns of fertilization. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of male X female interactions at fertilization and suggest that polyandry will enable females to reduce the cost of fertilization by incompatible gametes.

Distribution of an asymmetrical copepod, Hatschekia plectropomi, on the gills of Plectropomus leopardus

Hatschekia plectropomi, an ectoparasitic copepod found on the gills, infected Plectropomus leopardus from Heron Island Reef with 100% prevalence (n = 32) and a mean +/- S.E. infection intensity of 131.9 +/- 22.1. The distribution of 4222 adult female parasites across 32 individual host fish was investigated at several organizational levels ranging from the level of holobranch pairs to that of individual filaments. Parasites demonstrated a site preference for the two central holobranchs (2 and 3). Along the lengths of hemibranchs, filaments near the dorsal and ventral ends and those in the proximity of the bend region were rarely occupied. The probability of coming into contact with a suitable attachment site and the ability to withstand ventilation forces at that site were proposed as the major factors affecting distribution. Two H. plectropomi morphotypes were identified based on the direction of body curvature. Regardless of morphotype, 99.9% of individuals were attached such that the convex side of the body was oriented towards the oncoming ventilating water currents. Further, 93.3% of individuals attached to the posterior faces of filaments, leading to a predictable pattern of attachment for this species. It is suggested that the direction of body curvature develops in response to the direction of the ventilating water currents. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Use of methotrexate in older patients - A risk-benefit assessment

Methotrexate is eliminated almost entirely by the kidneys. The risk of methotrexate toxicity is therefore increased in patients with poor renal function, most likely as a result of drug accumulation. Declining renal function with age may thus be an important predictor of toxicity to methotrexate. Up to 60% of all patients who receive methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) discontinue taking it because of adverse effects, most of which occur during the first year of therapy. Gastrointestinal complications are the most common adverse effects of methotrexate, but hepatotoxicity, haematological toxicity, pulmonary toxicity, lymphoproliferative disorders and exacerbation of rheumatic nodules have all been reported, Decreased renal function as a result of disease and/or aging appears to be an important determinant of hepatic, lymphoproli ferative and haematological toxicity, Concomitant use of low doses of folic acid has been recommended as an approach to limiting toxicity. Interactions between methotrexate and several nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been reported, but they may not be clinically significant. However, caution is advised in the use of such combinations in patients with reduced renal function. More serious toxicities (e.g. pancytopenia) may result when other inhibitors of folate utilisation [e.g. cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole)] or inhibitors of renal tubular secretion (e.g. probenecid) are combined with methotrexate. Before starting low dose methotrexate therapy in patients with RA, a full blood count, liver function tests, renal function tests and chest radiography should be performed. Blood counts and liver function tests should be repeated at regular intervals. Therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate has also been suggested as a means of limiting toxicity. Patients with RA usually respond very favourably to low dose methotrexate therapy, and the probability of patients continuing their treatment beyond 5 years is greater than for other slow-acting antirheumatic drugs. Thus, given its sustained clinical utility and relatively predictable toxicity profile, low dose methotrexate is a useful addition to the therapy of RA.

An analysis of valve re-replacement after aortic valve replacement with biologic devices

Biologic valve re-replacement was examined in a series of 1343 patients who underwent aortic valve replacement at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, with a cryopreserved or 4 degrees C stored allograft valve or a xenograft valve, A parametric model approach was used to simultaneously model the competing risks of death without re-replacement and re-replacement before death, One hundred eleven patients underwent a first re-replacement for a variety of reasons (69 patients with xenograft valves, 28 patients with 4 degrees C stored allograft valves, and 14 patients with cryopreserved allograft valves), By multivariable analysis younger age at operation was associated with xenograft, 4 degrees C stored allograft, and cryopreserved allograft valve re-replacement, However, this effect was examined in the context of longer survival of younger patients, which increases their exposure to the risk of re-replacement as compared with that in older patients whose decreased survival reduced their probability of requiring valve re-replacement, In patients older than 60 years at the time of aortic valve replacement, the probability of re-replacement (for any reason) before death was similar for xenografts and cryopreserved allograft valves but higher for 4 degrees C stored valves, However, in patients younger than 60 years, the probability of re-replacement at any time during the remainder of the life of the patient was lower with the cryopreserved allograft valve compared with the xenograft valve and 4 degrees C stored allografts.

On the decay rates of buffers in continuous flow lines

Consider a tandem system of machines separated by infinitely large buffers. The machines process a continuous flow of products, possibly at different speeds. The life and repair times of the machines are assumed to be exponential. We claim that the overflow probability of each buffer has an exponential decay, and provide an algorithm to determine the exact decay rates in terms of the speeds and the failure and repair rates of the machines. These decay rates provide useful qualitative insight into the behavior of the flow line. In the derivation of the algorithm we use the theory of Large Deviations.

Detecting environmental impacts on metapopulations of mound spring invertebrates - Assessing an incidence function model

We use a stochastic patch occupancy model of invertebrates in the Mound Springs ecosystem of South Australia to assess the ability of incidence function models to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations. We assume that the probability of colonisation decreases with increasing isolation and the probability of extinction is constant across spring vents. We run the models to quasi-equilibrium, and then impose an impact by increasing the local extinction probability. We sample the output at various times pre- and postimpact, and examine the probability of detecting a significant change in population parameters. The incidence function model approach turns out to have little power to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations with small numbers of patches. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Predictors of non-response to a questionnaire survey of a volunteer twin panel: Findings from the Australian 1989 twin cohort

Questionnaire surveys, while more economical, typically achieve poorer response rates than interview surveys. We used data from a national volunteer cohort of young adult twins, who were scheduled for assessment by questionnaire in 1989 and by interview in 1996-2000, to identify predictors of questionnaire non-response. Out of a total of 8536 twins, 5058 completed the questionnaire survey (59% response rate), and 6255 completed a telephone interview survey conducted a decade later (73% response rate). Multinomial logit models were fitted to the interview data to identify socioeconomic, psychiatric and health behavior correlates of non-response in the earlier questionnaire survey. Male gender, education below University level, and being a dizygotic rather than monozygotic twin, all predicted reduced likelihood of participating in the questionnaire survey. Associations between questionnaire response status and psychiatric history and health behavior variables were modest, with history of alcohol dependence and childhood conduct disorder predicting decreased probability of returning a questionnaire, and history of smoking and heavy drinking more weakly associated with non-response. Body-mass index showed no association with questionnaire non-response. Despite a poor response rate to the self-report questionnaire survey, we found only limited sampling biases for most variables. While not appropriate for studies where socioeconomic variables are critical, it appears that survey by questionnaire, with questionnaire administration by telephone to non-responders, will represent a viable strategy for gene-mapping studies requiring that large numbers of relatives be screened.

A for stage III and IV squamous carcinoma of the head and neck: a Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group Study

Purpose: The aims of this randomized controlled trial were to determine whether there were differences in the disease-free survival (DFS) and toxicity between conventional radiotherapy (CRT) and a continuous 3 week accelerated radiotherapy regimen (ART) in stage III and IV squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx and hypopharynx. Patients and methods: Patients from 14 centres throughout Australia and New Zealand were randomly assigned to either CRT, using a single 2 Gy/day to a dose of 70 Gy in 35 fractions in 49 days or to ART, using 1.8 Gy twice a day to a dose of 59.4 Gy in 33 fractions in 24 days. Treatment allocation was stratified for site and stage. The accrual began in 1991 and the trial was closed in 1998 when the target of 350 patients was reached. Results: The median potential follow-up time was 53 months (range, 14-101). The DFS at 5 years was 41% (95% CI, 33-50%) for ART and 35% (95% CI, 27-43%) for CRT (P = 0.323) and the hazard ratio was 0.87 in favour of ART (95% CI, 0.66-1.15). The 5-year disease-specific survival rates were 40% for CRT and 46% for ART (P = 0.398) and the loco-regional control was 47% for CRT vs. 52% for ART (P = 0.300). The respective hazard ratios were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.65-1.2) and 0.85 (0.62-1.16), favouring the accelerated arm. In the ART arm, confluent mucositis was more severe (94 vs. 71%; P < 0.001) and peaked about 3 weeks earlier than in the CRT arm, but healing appeared complete in all cases. There were statistically significant reductions in the probability of grade 2 or greater late soft tissue effects over time in the ART arm (P < 0.05), except for the mucous membrane where late effects were similar in both arms. Conclusions: Differences in DFS, disease-specific survival and loco-regional control have not been demonstrated. ART resulted in more acute mucosal toxicity, but this did not result in greater prolongation of the treatment time compared with the CRT arm. There were less late effects in the ART arm, with the exception of late mucosal effects. This trial has confirmed that tumour cell repopulation occurs during conventionally fractionated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer. However, it has also provided additional evidence that overall improvements in the therapeutic ratio using accelerated fractionation strategies are seriously constrained by the need to limit total doses to levels that do not exceed acute mucosal tolerance. The accelerated schedule tested has been shown in this trial to be an acceptable alternative to conventionally fractionated irradiation to 70 Gy. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated treatment of shrimp effluent by sedimentation, oyster filtration and macroalgal absorption: a laboratory scale study

Effluent water from shrimp ponds typically contains elevated concentrations of dissolved nutrients and suspended particulates compared to influent water. Attempts to improve effluent water quality using filter feeding bivalves and macroalgae to reduce nutrients have previously been hampered by the high concentration of clay particles typically found in untreated pond effluent. These particles inhibit feeding in bivalves and reduce photosynthesis in macroalgae by increasing effluent turbidity. In a small-scale laboratory study, the effectiveness of a three-stage effluent treatment system was investigated. In the first stage, reduction in particle concentration occurred through natural sedimentation. In the second stage, filtration by the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea commercialis (Iredale and Roughley), further reduced the concentration of suspended particulates, including inorganic particles, phytoplankton, bacteria, and their associated nutrients. In the final stage, the macroalga, Gracilaria edulis (Gmelin) Silva, absorbed dissolved nutrients. Pond effluent was collected from a commercial shrimp farm, taken to an indoor culture facility and was left to settle for 24 h. Subsamples of water were then transferred into laboratory tanks stocked with oysters and maintained for 24 h, and then transferred to tanks containing macroalgae for another 24 h. Total suspended solid (TSS), chlorophyll a, total nitrogen (N), total phosphorus (P), NH4+, NO3-, and PO43-, and bacterial numbers were compared before and after each treatment at: 0 h (initial); 24 h (after sedimentation); 48 h (after oyster filtration); 72 h (after macroalgal absorption). The combined effect of the sequential treatments resulted in significant reductions in the concentrations of all parameters measured. High rates of nutrient regeneration were observed in the control tanks, which did not contain oysters or macroalgae. Conversely, significant reductions in nutrients and suspended particulates after sedimentation and biological treatment were observed. Overall, improvements in water quality (final percentage of the initial concentration) were as follows: TSS (12%); total N (28%); total P (14%); NH4+ (76%); NO3- (30%); PO43-(35%); bacteria (30%); and chlorophyll a (0.7%). Despite the probability of considerable differences in sedimentation, filtration and nutrient uptake rates when scaled to farm size, these results demonstrate that integrated treatment has the potential to significantly improve water quality of shrimp farm effluent. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Marker concentration patterns of labelled leaf and stem particles in the rumen of cattle grazing bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon) analysed by reference to a raft model

Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

Effect of chronic morphine treatment on alpha(2)-adrenoceptor mediated autoinhibition of transmitter release from sympathetic varicosities of the mouse vas deferens

1 The effect of chronic morphine treatment (CMT) on sympathetic innervation of the mouse vas deferens and on alpha (2)-adrenoceptor mediated autoinhibition has been examined using intracellular recording of excitatory junction potentials (EJPs) and histochemistry. 2 In chronically saline treated (CST) preparations. morphine (1 muM) and the alpha (2)-adrenoceptor agonist (clonidine, 1 muM) decreased the mean amplitude of EJPs evoked with 0.03 Hz stimulation by 81+/-8% (n=16) and 92+/-6% (n=7) respectively. In CMT preparations, morphine (1 muM) and clonidine (1 muM) decreased mean EJP amplitude by 68+/-8% (n = 7) and 79+/-8% (n = 7) respectively. 3 When stimulating the sympathetic axons at 0.03 Hz. the mean EJP amplitude recorded from smooth muscles acutely withdrawn from CMT was four times greater than for CST smooth muscles (40.7+/-3.8 mV, n = 7 compared with 9.9+/-0.3 mV, n = 7). 4 Part of the increase in mean EJP amplitude following CMT was produced by a 31% increase in the density of sympathetic axons and varicosities innervating the smooth muscle. 5 Results from the present study indicate that the effectiveness of alpha (2)-adrenocrptor mediated autoinhibition is only slightly reduced in CMT preparations. Most of the cross tolerance which develops between morphine, clonidine and alpha (2)-adrenoceptor mediated autoinhibition occurs as a consequence of increased efficacy of neuromuscular transmission which is produced by an increase in the probability of transmitter release and an increase in the density of sympathetic innervation.

Time of treatment influences the appearance of drug-resistant parasites in Plasmodium falciparum infections

A deterministic mathematical model which predicts the probability of developing a new drug-resistant parasite population within the human host is reported, The model incorporates the host's specific antibody response to PfEMP1, and also investigates the influence of chemotherapy on the probability of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population within the host. Results indicate that early, treatment, and a high antibody threshold coupled with a long lag time between antibody stimulation and activity, are risk factors which increase the likelihood of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population. High parasite mutation rates and fast PfEMP1 var gene switching are also identified as risk factors. The model output allows the relative importance of the various risk factors as well as the relationships between them to be established, thereby increasing the understanding of the conditions which favour the development of a new drug-resistant parasite population.