Response to price and production risk: The case of Australian wheat

A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constraints of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short-run and long-run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

A catalog of HI-selected galaxies from the south celestial cap region of sky

The first deep catalog of the H I Parkes All Sky Survey (HIPASS) is presented, covering the south celestial cap (SCC) region. The SCC area is similar to2400 deg(2) and covers delta < -62&DEG;. The average rms noise for the survey is 13 mJy beam(-1). Five hundred thirty-six galaxies have been cataloged according to their neutral hydrogen content, including 114 galaxies that have no previous cataloged optical counterpart. This is the largest sample of galaxies from a blind H I survey to date. Most galaxies in optically unobscured regions of sky have a visible optical counterpart; however, there is a small population of low-velocity H I clouds without visible optical counterparts whose origins and significance are unclear. The rms accuracy of the HIPASS positions is found to be 1.'9. The H I mass range of galaxies detected is from &SIM;10(6) to &SIM;10(11) M-.. There are a large number of late-type spiral galaxies in the SCC sample (66%), compared with 30% for optically selected galaxies from the same region in the NASA Extragalactic Database. The average ratio of H I mass to B luminosity of the sample increases according to optical type, from 1.8 M-./L-. for early types to 3.2 M-./L-. for late-type galaxies. The H I-detected galaxies tend to follow the large-scale structure traced by galaxies found in optical surveys. From the number of galaxies detected in this region of sky, we predict the full HIPASS catalog will contain &SIM;5000 galaxies, to a peak flux density limit of &SIM;39 mJy (3 σ), although this may be a conservative estimate as two large voids are present in the region. The H I mass function for this catalog is presented in a subsequent paper.

Indirect certainty equivalents for the firm facing price and production uncertainty

Producer decisionmaking under uncertainty is characterized using indirect objective functions. The characterization is for the class of producers with continuous and nondecreasing preferences over stochastic incomes who face both price and production uncertainty. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A randomized trial comparing hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and HRT plus calcitriol in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis with vertebral fractures: Benefit of the combination on total body and hip density

We report a prospective, randomized, multi-center, open-label 2-year trial of 81 postmenopausal women aged 53-79 years with at least one minimal-trauma vertebral fracture (VF) and low (T-score below 2) lumbar bone mineral density (BMD). Group HRT received piperazine estrone sulfate (PES) 0.625 - 1.25 mg/d +/- medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) 2.5 - 5 mg/d,- group HRT/D received HRT plus calcitriol 0.25 mug bd. All with a baseline dietary calcium (Ca) of < I g/d received Ca carbonate 0.6 g nocte. Final data were on 66 - 70 patients. On HRT/D, significant (P < 0.001) BNID increases from baseline by DXA were at total body - head, trochanter, Ward's, total hip, inter-trochanter and femoral shaft (% group mean Delta 4.2, 6.1, 9.3. 3.7. 3.3 and 3.3%, respectively). On HRT, at these significant Deltas were restricted to the trochanter and sites. si Wards. Significant advantages of HRT/D over HRT were in BMD of total body (- head), total hip and trochanter (all P = 0.01). The differences in mean Delta at these sites were 1.3, 2.6 and 3.9%. At the following, both groups Improved significantly -lumbar spine (AP and lateral), forearm shaft and ultradistal tibia/fibula. The weightbearing, site - specific benefits of the combination associated with significant suppression of parathyroid hormone-suggest a beneficial effect on cortical bone. Suppression of bone turnover was significantly greater on HRT/D (serum osteocalcin P = 0.024 and urinary hydroxyproline/creatinine ratio P = 0.035). There was no significant difference in the number of patients who developed fresh VFs during the trial (HRT 8/36, 22%; HRT/D 4/34, 12% - intention to treat); likewise in the number who developed incident nonvertebral fractures. This Is the first study comparing the 2 treatments in a fracture population. The results indicate a significant benefit of calcitriol combined with HRT on total body BMD and on BNID at the hip, the major site of osteoporotic fracture.

Cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine and methylphenidate for the treatment of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Objective: To analyze from a health sector perspective the cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine (DEX) and methylphenidate (MPH) interventions to treat childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), compared to current practice. Method: Children eligible for the interventions are those aged between 4 and 17 years in 2000, who had ADHD and were seeking care for emotional or behavioural problems, but were not receiving stimulant medication. To determine health benefit, a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials was performed for DEX and MPH, and the effect sizes were translated into utility values. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Simulation modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which is calculated in cost (in A$) per DALY averted. Results: The ICER for DEX is A$4100/DALY saved (95% UI: negative to A$14 000) and for MPH is A$15 000/DALY saved (95% UI: A$9100-22 000). DEX is more costly than MPH for the government, but much less costly for the patient. Conclusions: MPH and DEX are cost-effective interventions for childhood ADHD. DEX is more cost-effective than MPH, although if MPH were listed at a lower price on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme it would become more cost-effective. Increased uptake of stimulants for ADHD would require policy change. However, the medication of children and wider availability of stimulants may concern parents and the community.

Auction price anomalies: Evidence from wool auctions in Australia

Using detailed Australian wool auction data we test for further evidence of pricing anomalies at sequential auctions. We find that an anomaly frequently exists and order is frequently endogenously determined. Moreover, prices increase through some sales and decrease through others. We examine whether it is possible to explain the variation in the anomaly across sales and conclude that there is no systematic relationship between the direction of the price anomaly and the characteristics of the wool or the auction. We do, however, find evidence that an anomaly, is more likely in longer sales.

Reserve price commitments in auctions

It is well known that the optimal auction-one that maximizes the seller's expected revenue-can be implemented using a standard auction format with a suitably chosen reserve price. This reserve price is above the seller's value of retaining the object and the mechanism requires a commitment not to sell the object below the reserve. This commitment is what makes the reserve valuable to the seller. However, in practice, a reserve price commits the seller to sell the object if the reserve is reached, but does not commit her to withhold the object from sale if bidding falls short of the reserve. In this note we investigate whether reserve prices remain valuable for the seller when she may negotiate with the highest bidder if the reserve is not met. We show that the value of the reserve price may be completely undermined if the seller is a sufficiently weak bargainer. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Price regulation in Australia: How consistent has it been?

We assemble a database consisting of 52 regulatory decisions made by seven different regulators across five different industries. We examine how the proportion of firms' revenue requirements that were disallowed by the regulator vary by regulator, industry and time. Despite the differences in the implementation of price regulation across industries and across jurisdictions in Australia, outcomes are surprisingly consistent. For example, we show that it is not possible to reject the hypothesis that the regulators outcomes in South Australia, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria are similar despite the different regulatory approaches undertaken in these jurisdictions.

Sequential asymmetric auctions with endogenous participation

In this paper we suggest a model of sequential auctions with endogenous participation where each bidder conjectures about the number of participants at each round. Then, after learning his value, each bidder decides whether or not to participate in the auction. In the calculation of his expected value, each bidder uses his conjectures about the number of participants for each possible subgroup. In equilibrium, the conjectured probability is compatible with the probability of staying in the auction. In our model, players face participation costs, bidders may buy as many objects as they wish and they are allowed to drop out at any round. Bidders can drop out at any time, but they cannot come back to the auction. In particular we can determine the number of participants and expected prices in equilibrium. We show that for any bidding strategy, there exists such a probability of staying in the auction. For the case of stochastically independent objects, we show that in equilibrium every bidder who decides to continue submits a bid that is equal to his value at each round. When objects are stochastically identical, we are able to show that expected prices are decreasing.

A flux ratio theorem for multicomponent linear diffusion equations

Ussing [1] considered the steady flux of a single chemical component diffusing through a membrane under the influence of chemical potentials and derived from his linear model, an expression for the ratio of this flux and that of the complementary experiment in which the boundary conditions were interchanged. Here, an extension of Ussing's flux ratio theorem is obtained for n chemically interacting components governed by a linear system of diffusion-migration equations that may also incorporate linear temporary trapping reactions. The determinants of the output flux matrices for complementary experiments are shown to satisfy an Ussing flux ratio formula for steady state conditions of the same form as for the well-known one-component case. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.