Magma Flow Instabilities in a Volcanic Conduit: Implications for Long-Period Seismicity

Silicic volcanic eruptions are typically accompanied by repetitive Long-Period (LP) seismicity that originates from a small region of the upper conduit. These signals have the capability to advance eruption prediction, since they commonly precede a change in the eruption vigour. Shear bands forming along the conduit wall, where the shear stresses are highest, have been linked to providing the seismic trigger. However, existing computational models are unable to generate shear bands at the depths where the LP signals originate using simple magma strength models. Presented here is a model in which the magma strength is determined from a constitutive relationship dependent upon crystallinity and pressure. This results in a depth-dependent magma strength, analogous to planetary lithospheres. Hence, in shallow highly-crystalline regions a macroscopically discontinuous brittle type of deformation will prevail, whilst in deeper crystal-poor regions there will be a macroscopically continuous plastic deformation mechanism. This will result in a depth where the brittle-ductile transition occurs, and here shear bands disconnected from the free-surface may develop. We utilize the Finite Element Method and use axi-symmetric coordinates to model magma flow as a viscoplastic material, simulating quasi-static shear bands along the walls of a volcanic conduit. Model results constrained to the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, show the generation of two types of shear bands: upper-conduit shear bands that form between the free-surface to a few 100 metres below it and discrete shear bands that form at the depths where LP seismicity is measured to occur corresponding to the brittle-ductile transition and the plastic shear region. It is beyond the limitation of the model to simulate a seismic event, although the modelled viscosity within the discrete shear bands suggests a failure and healing cycle time that supports the observed LP seismicity repeat times. However, due to the paucity of data and large parameter space available these results can only be considered to be qualitative rather than quantitative at this stage.

Vaccine-induced Th1-type responses are dominant over Th2-type responses in the short term whereas pre-existing Th2 responses are dominant in the longer term

The effect of adjuvant on induction of human papillomavirus type 16 E7 protein-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) and immunoglobulin G (IgG)(2a) antibody was studied in C57BL/6 J mice immunized with various adjuvants and E7 protein. Quil-A adjuvant, but not complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA) or Algammulin, induced a T-helper 1 (Th1)-type response to E7, which was characterized by CTL activity against a tumour cell line transfected with E7 protein and by E7-specific IgG(2a). All tested adjuvants elicited comparable levels of E7-specific IgG(1). The longest duration and greatest magnitude of CTL response was seen following two immunizations with the highest dose of E7 and Quil-A. Simultaneous immunization with a Th1 and a T helper 2 (Th2)-promoting adjuvant gave a Th1-type response. However, E7 and Quil-A were unable to induce a Th1-type response (as measured by the inability to generate anti-E7 IgG(2a) antibody) in animals with a pre-existing Th2-type response to E7. These results suggest that saponin adjuvants may be suitable for immunotherapy in humans where a Th1-type response is sought, provided that there is no pre existing Th2-type response to the antigen.

A case-control study of employment status and mortality in a cohort of Australian youth

Recent studies have demonstrated a link in young populations between unemployment and ill health. The purpose of this study is to correlate mortality with employment status in two cohorts of young Australian males, aged 17-25 years, from 1984 to 1988. Two youth cohorts consisting of an initially unemployed sample (n = 1424 males) and a population sample (n = 4573 males), were surveyed annually throughout the study period. Those lost to follow-up during the survey period were matched with death registries across Australia. Employment status was determined from weekly diaries and death certificates and was designated as: employed or student; unemployed; not in the work force (excluding students). Conditional logistic regression, using age- and cohort- matched cases (deaths) and controls (alive), was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of dying with regard to employment status, taking into account potential confounders such as ethnicity, aboriginality, educational attainment, pre-existing health problems, socio-economic status of parents, and other factors. Twenty three male survey respondents were positively matched to death registry records. Compared to those employed or students (referent group), significantly elevated ORs were found to be associated with neither being in the workforce nor a student for all cause, external cause, and external cause mortality other than suicide. Odds ratios were adjusted for age, survey cohort, ethnicity, pre-existing physical and mental health status, education level, and socio-economic status of parent(s). A statistically significant increasing linear trend in odds ratios of male mortality for most cause groups was found across the employment categories, from those employed or student (lowest ORs), through those unemployed; to those not in the workforce (highest ORs). Suicide was higher, but not statistically significantly, in those unemployed or not in the workforce. Suicide also was associated, though not significantly, with the respondent not living with their parents when they were 14 years of age. No association was found between mortality and past unemployment experience, as measured by length of time spent unemployed, or the number of spells of unemployment experienced during the survey. The results of this study underscore the elevated risk to survival in young males as a consequence of being neither employed nor a student. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The knowledge gap: A perspective on trade, industry, technology and policy from pre-war Australian music technology manufacturing (1903-30)

Australia struggles to achieve economic competitiveness, prevent expansion of the trade deficit and develop value-added production despite applications of policy strategies from protectionism to trade liberalisation. This article argues that these problems were emerging at the turn of the century, and that an investigation of music technology manufacturing in the first two decades of this century reveals fundamental problems in the conduct of relevant policy analysis. Analysis has focused on the trade or technology gap which is only symptomatic of an underlying knowledge gap. The article calls for a knowledge policy approach which can allow protection without the negative effects of isolation from global markets and without having to resort to unworkable utopian free-trade dogma. A shift of focus from a 'goods traded' view to a knowledge transaction (or diffusion) perspective is advocated.

Whole-body pre-cooling and heat storage during self-paced cycling performance in warm humid conditions

The aim of this study was to establish the effect that pre-cooling the skin without a concomitant reduction in core temperature has on subsequent self-paced cycling performance under warm humid (31 degrees C and 60% relative humidity) conditions. Seven moderately trained males performed a 30 min self-paced cycling trial on two separate occasions. The conditions were counterbalanced as control or whole-body pre-cooling by water immersion so that resting skin temperature was reduced by approximate to 5-6 degrees C. After pre-cooling, mean skin temperature was lower throughout exercise and rectal temperature was lower (P < 0.05) between 15 and 25 min of exercise. Consequently, heat storage increased (P < 0.003) from 84.0 +/- 8.8 W . m(-2) to 153 +/- 13.1 W . m(-2) (mean +/- s((x) over bar)) after pre-cooling, while total body sweat fell from 1.7 +/- 0.1 1 . h(-1) to 1.2 +/- 0.1 1 . h(-1) (P < 0.05). The distance cycled increased from 14.9 +/- 0.8 to 15.8 +/- 0.7 km (P < 0.05) after pre-cooling. The results indicate that skin pre-cooling in the absence of a reduced rectal temperature is effective in reducing thermal strain and increasing the distance cycled in 30 min under warm humid conditions.

Does maintaining green leaf area in sorghum improve yield under drought? I. Leaf growth and senescence

Production of sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], an important cereal crop in semiarid regions of the world, is often limited by drought. When water is limiting during the grain-filling period, hybrids possessing the stay-green trait maintain more photosynthetically active leaves than hybrids not possessing this trait. To improve yield under drought, knowledge of the extent of genetic variation in green leaf area retention is required. Field studies were undertaken in north-eastern Australia on a cracking and self-mulching gray clay to determine the effects of water regime and hybrid on the components of green leaf area at maturity (GLAM). Nine hybrids varying in stay-green were grown under a fully irrigated control, postflowering water deficit, and terminal (pre- and postflowering) water deficit. Water deficit reduced GLAM by 67% in the terminal drought treatment compared with the fully irrigated control. Under terminal water deficit, hybrids possessing the B35 and KS19 sources of stay-green retained more GLAM (1260 cm(2) plant(-1)) compared with intermediate (780 cm(2) plant(-1)) and senescent (670 cm(2) plant(-1)) hybrids. RQL12 hybrids (KS19 source of stay-green) displayed delayed onset and reduced rate of senescence; A35 hybrids displayed only delayed onset. Visual rating of green leaf retention was highly correlated with measured GLAM, although this procedure is constrained by an inability to distinguish among the functional mechanisms determining the phenotype. Linking functional rather than phenotypic differences to molecular markers may improve the efficiency of selecting for traits such as stay-green.

Impact of increasing the re-supply interval on the seasonality of subsidised prescription use in Australia

Objective: To evaluate the impact of increasing the minimum resupply period for prescriptions on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in November 1994. The intervention was designed to reduce the stockpiling of medicines used for chronic medical conditions under the PBS safety net. Methods: Interrupted times series regression analyses were performed on 114 months of PBS drug utilisation data from January 1991 to June 2000. These analyses assessed whether there had been a significant interaction between the onset of the intervention in November 1994 and the extreme levels of drug utilisation in the months of December (peak utilisation) and January (lowest utilisation) respectively. Both serial and 12-month lag autocorrelations were controlled for. Results: The onset of the intervention was associated with a significant reduction in the December peak in drug utilisation; after the introduction of the policy there were 1,150,196 fewer proscriptions on average or that month (95% Cl 708,333-1,592,059). There was, however, no significant change in the low level of utilisation in January. The effect of the policy appears to be decreasing across successive postintervention years. though the odds of a prescription being dispensed in December remained significantly lower in 1999 compared to each of the pre-intervention years (11% vs. 14%) Conclusion: Analysis of the impact of increasing the re-supply period for PBS prescriptions showed that the magnitude of peak utilisation in December had been markedly reduced by the policy, though this effect appears to be decreasing over time. Continued monitoring and policy review is warranted in order to ensure that the initial effect of the intervention be maintained.

A medial to lateral shift in pre-movement cortical activity in hemi-Parkinson's disease

Objective: Recent evidence suggests that cortical activity associated with voluntary movement is relatively shifted from medial to lateral premotor areas in Parkinson's disease. This shift occurs bilaterally even for unilateral responses. It is not clear whether the shift in processing reflects an overall change in movement strategy, thereby involving alternate cortical areas, or reflects a compensatory change whereby, given the appropriate conditions, less impaired cortical areas are able to provide a similar function in compensation for those areas which are more impaired. This issue was examined in patients with hemi-Parkinson's disease, in whom basal ganglia impairment is most pronounced in one hemisphere. Methods: Fourteen patients with hemi-Parkinson's disease and 15 age-matched control subjects performed a Go/NoGo finger movement task and the contingent negative variation (CNV) was recorded from 21 scalp positions. Results and conclusions: Maximal CNV amplitudes were found over central medial regions for control subjects, but were shifted more frontally for Parkinson's disease patients, reduced in amplitude over the midline and lateralized towards the side ipsilateral to the greatest basal ganglia impairment. This shift in cortical activity from medial to lateral areas in Parkinson's disease patients appears to reflect a compensatory mechanism operating predominantly on the side of greatest basal ganglia impairment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.