Identifying and predicting adolescent smokers' developmental trajectories

Very few studies have defined trajectories of smoking. In the present study, we modeled growth in adolescent smoking and empirically identified prototypical trajectories. We conceptualized escalation of smoking as a growth process and modeled rates of change and heterogeneity of these patterns using latent growth mixture modeling. The analysis identified six trajectories with low ambiguity about group membership (early rapid escalators, late rapid escalators, late moderate escalators, late slow escalators-smokers, stable puffers, and late slow escalators-puffers). A trajectory of quitters was not identified. We also examined predictors of the smoking trajectories. The predictors were assessed across the adolescent years and included variables related to smoking and other substance use, as well as a range of variables related to sociodemographic factors and mental health. Observed change in the pattern of predictors across age has implications for the mechanism of effect of these variables in relation to smoking trajectories, including predictors that differentiated among daily smokers, variables that may determine the trajectory (e.g., friends smoking), and variables that may result from the trajectory (e.g., marijuana use, less attachment to friends).

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Will nicotine genetics and a nicotine vaccine prevent cigarette smoking and smoking-related diseases?

This paper briefly explains why it would be unwise to use genetic and neurobiological knowledge to prevent cigarette smoking and tobacco-related disease. However implausible these uses may seem to those who are well informed about the genetics of tobacco use or tobacco-control policy, it is the preventive uses of genetic information and nicotine vaccines that most excite the interest of the media and the public. The major challenges that these approaches face need to be widely understood if we are to prevent these superfi cially attractive but controversial uses from undermining effective control policies and the development of better methods of helping smokers to quit.

Increasing the efficacy of Judas goats by sterilisation and pregnancy termination

The use of Judas goats to locate remnant animals is a potentially powerful tool for enhancing goat-eradication efforts, which are especially important to island conservation. However, current Judas goat methodology falls short of its potential efficacy. Female Judas goats are often pregnant at the time of deployment or become impregnated in the field; pregnant females leave associated goats to give birth, causing downtime of Judas goat operations. Further, male Judas goats may inseminate remnant females. Sterilising Judas goats prior to deployment removes these inefficiencies. Here, we describe two methods (epididymectomy for males and tubal occlusion for females) that sterilise Judas goats while still maintaining sexual motivation and other behaviours associated with intact animals. These surgeries are straightforward, time efficient, and may be conducted in the field by staff with minimal training. Given the widespread and deleterious impacts of non-native herbivores to ecosystems and the importance of Judas operations in detecting animals at low densities, sterilisation and termination of pregnancy should be applied routinely in Judas goat (and possibly other species) programs to increase the efficacy of low-density control operations and eradication campaigns.

Student expectations of TESOL programs: Student and teacher perspectives

Most practitioners teaching English to speakers of other languages (TESOL) will agree that students come with some expectations about course content and teaching methodology and that these expectations play a vital role in student motivation and learning. However, the study of student expectations has been a surprising omission from Second Language Acquisition research. In the studies reported here, the authors develop a model of student expectations by adapting the Expectation Disconfirmation paradigm, widely used in consumer psychology. Student and teacher perspectives on student expectations were gathered by interviews. Responses shed light on the nature of expectations, factors causing expectations and effects of expectation fulfilment (or lack of it). The findings provide new avenues for research on affective factors as well as clarify some ambiguities in motivational research in second language acquisition. The model presented here can be used by teachers or institutions to conduct classroom-based research, thus optimising students' learning and performance, and enhancing student morale.

'Occasional' and 'social' smokers: Potential target groups for smoking cessation campaigns?

Objective: To describe the characteristics [of self-described 'occasional' and 'social' Australian smokers. Design: Analysis of a national cross-sectional survey of smoking patterns, conducted in Australia in 2004. Setting and participants: Australian adults in 2004 who responded to a survey question about self-described smoking status. Main outcome measures: Demographic characteristics, patterns of alcohol and tobacco use, smoking cessation attempts in the past year, and interest in cessation. Results: Smokers who described themselves as 'occasional' and 'social' smokers comprised 29% of all smokers. A significant proportion of occasional and social smokers had been daily smokers, but the majority either believed that they had 'already quit' or had no intention of quitting smoking. Conclusions: Self-ascribed occasional and social smokers potentially represent an important target group for cessation. These types of smokers may be more resistant to public health messages regarding cessation because they do not view their smoking behaviour as presenting a high risk.

Learning for fun: The unique contribution of educational leisure experiences

What do visitors want or expect from an educational leisure activity such as a visit to a museum, zoo, aquarium or other such experience? Is it to learn something or to experience learning? This paper uses the term 'learning for fun' to refer to the phenomenon in which visitors engage in a learning experience because they value and enjoy the process of learning itself. Five propositions regarding the nature of learning for fun are discussed, drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from visitors to a range of educational leisure activities. The commonalities between learning for fun and other theoretical constructs such as 'experience,' 'flow', 'intrinsic motivation', and 'curiosity' are explored. It is concluded that learning for fun is a unique and distinctive offering of educational leisure experiences, with implications for future research and experience design.

Elite athletes: Why does the 'fire' burn so brightly?

Background and Purpose: What drives some athletes to achieve at the highest level whilst other athletes fail to achieve their physical potential? Why does the ‘fire’ burn so brightly for some elite athletes and not for others? A good understanding of an athlete’s motivation is critical to a coach designing an appropriate motivational climate to realize an athlete’s physical talent. This paper examines the motivational processes of elite athletes within the framework of three major social-cognitive theories of motivation. Method: Participants were five male and five female elite track and field athletes from Australia who had finished in the top ten at either the Olympic Games and/or the World Championships in the last six years. Qualitative data were collected using semi-structured interviews. Results and Discussion: Inductive analyses revealed several major themes associated with the motivational processes of elite athletes: (a) they were highly driven by personal goals and achievement, (b) they had strong self-belief, and (c) track and field was central to their lives. The findings are discussed in light of recent social-cognitive theories of motivation, namely, self-determination theory, the hierarchical model of motivation, and achievement goal theory. Self-determined forms of motivation characterised the elite athletes in this study and, consistent with social-cognitive theories of motivation, it is suggested that goal accomplishment enhances perceptions of competence and consequently promotes self-determined forms of motivation.

The effects of Australian tall poppy attitudes on American value based leadership theory

A survey study of twenty-two Australian CEOs and their subordinates assessed relationships between Australian leader motives, Australian value based leader behaviour, subordinate tall poppy attitudes and subordinate commitment, effectiveness, motivation and satisfaction (CEMS). On the whole, the results showed general support for value based leadership processes. Subsequent regression analyses of the second main component of Value Based Leadership Theory, value based leader behaviour, revealed that the collectivistic, inspirational, integrity and visionary behaviour sub-scales of the construct were positively related with subordinate CEMS. Although the hypothesis that subordinate tall poppy attitudes would moderate value based leadership processes was not clearly supported, subsequent regression analyses found that subordinate tall poppy attitudes were negatively related with perceptions of value based leader behaviour and CEMS. These findings suggest complex relationships between the three constructs, and the proposed model for the Australian context is accordingly amended. Overall, the research supports the need to consider cultural-specific attitudes in management development.

Characteristics of long-term cannabis users in Sydney, Australia

Two hundred long-term cannabis users (58% male) were interviewed on their characteristics and experience of use. Respondents had been regularly using cannabis for an average of 11 years and more than half used daily (56%). The most common route of administration was in a waterpipe, and nearly all (93%) smoked the flowering heads ot the plant. One in 5 (21%) had a cannabis-related conviction. The benefits of use were perceived to be its relaxing, mood-enhancing effects, and its ability to alter consciousness. The most commonly cited negative aspects of use were cost, negative psychological effects and legal status. Polydrug use was common, with alcohol and tobacco almost universally used on a regular basis. More than half the drinkers in the sample were consuming alcohol at hazardous or harmful levels.