Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phenotypic and genetic analyses of a short measure of psychosis-proneness in a large-scale Australian twin study

Previous genetic analyses of psychosis proneness have been limited by their small sample size. For the purposes of large-scale screening, a 12-item questionnaire was developed through a two-stage process of reduction from the full Chapman and Chapman scales. 3685 individuals (including 1438 complete twin pairs) aged 18–25 years and enrolled in the volunteer Australian Twin Registry returned a mail questionnaire which included this psychosis proneness scale and the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire. Despite the brevity of the questionnaire, item and factor analysis identified four unambiguous and essentially uncorrelated scales. There were (1) Perceptual Aberration – Magical Ideation; (2) Hypomania – Impulsivity/Nonconformity; (3) Social Anhedonia and (4) Physical Anhedonia. Model-fitting analyses showed additive genetic and specific environmental factors were sufficient for three of the four scales, with the Social Anhedonia scale requiring also a parameter for genetic dominance. There was no evidence for the previously hypothesised sex differences in the genetic determination of psychosis-proneness. The potential value of multivariate genetic analysis to examine the relationship between these four scales and dimensions of personality is discussed. The growing body of longitudinal evidence on psychosis-proneness suggests the value of incorporating this brief measure into developmental twin studies.

Change in abundance of dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo and Exmouth Gulf, Western Australia: evidence for large-scale migration

The third in a series of five-yearly aerial surveys for dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf was conducted in July 1999. The first two surveys provided evidence of an apparently stable population of dugongs, with similar to 1000 animals in each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef, and 10000 in Shark Bay. We report estimates of less than 200 for each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef and similar to 14000 for Shark Bay. This is an apparent overall increase in the dugong population over this whole region, but with a distributional shift of animals to the south. The most plausible hypothesis to account for a large component of this apparent population shift is that animals in Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef moved to Shark Bay, most likely after Tropical Cyclone Vance impacted available dugong forage in the northern habitat. Bias associated with survey estimate methodology, and normal changes in population demographics may also have contributed to the change. The movement of large numbers of dugongs over the scale we suggest has important management implications. First, such habitat-driven shifts in regional abundance will need to be incorporated in assessing the effectiveness of marine protected areas that aim to protect dugongs and their habitat. Second, in circumstances where aerial surveys are used to estimate relative trends in abundance of dugongs, animal movements of the type we propose could lead to errors in interpretation.

Large-scale velocity structures in the Horologium-Reticulum supercluster

We present 547 optical redshifts obtained for galaxies in the region of the Horologium-Reticulum supercluster (HRS) using the 6 degrees field (6dF) multifiber spectrograph on the UK Schmidt Telescope at the Anglo-Australian Observatory. The HRS covers an area of more than 12 degrees x 12 degrees on the sky centered at approximately alpha = 03(h)19(m), delta = 50 degrees 02'. Our 6dF observations concentrate on the intercluster regions of the HRS, from which we describe four primary results. First, the HRS spans at least the redshift range from 17,000 to 22,500 km s(-1). Second, the overdensity of galaxies in the intercluster regions of the HRS in this redshift range is estimated to be 2.4, or delta rho/(rho) over bar similar to 1: 4. Third, we find a systematic trend of increasing redshift along a southeast-northwest spatial axis in the HRS, in that the mean redshift of HRS members increases by more than 1500 km s(-1) from southeast to northwest over a 12 degrees region. Fourth, the HRS is bimodal in redshift with a separation of similar to 2500 km s(-1) (35 Mpc) between the higher and lower redshift peaks. This fact is particularly evident if the above spatial-redshift trend is fitted and removed. In short, the HRS appears to consist of two components in redshift space, each one exhibiting a similar systematic spatial-redshift trend along a southeast-northwest axis. Lastly, we compare these results from the HRS with the Shapley supercluster and find similar properties and large-scale features.

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia: An example of the co-existence of significant marine mammal populations and large-scale coastal development

Recent analyses assert that large marine vertebrates such as marine mammals are now 'functionally or entirely extinct in most coastal ecosystems'. Moreton Bay is a large diverse marine ecosystem bordering the fastest growing area in Australia. The human population is over 1.6 million and increasing yearly by between 10% and 13% with resultant impacts upon the adjoining marine environment. Nonetheless, significant populations of three species of marine mammals are resident within Moreton Bay and a further 14 species are seasonal or occasional visitors. This paper reviews the current and historical distributions and abundance of these species in the context of the current management regime and suggests initiatives to increase the resilience of marine mammal populations to the changes wrought by the burgeoning human population in coastal environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical and numerical analysis of large-scale heat transfer problems with temperature-dependent pore-fluid densities

Purpose - In many scientific and engineering fields, large-scale heat transfer problems with temperature-dependent pore-fluid densities are commonly encountered. For example, heat transfer from the mantle into the upper crust of the Earth is a typical problem of them. The main purpose of this paper is to develop and present a new combined methodology to solve large-scale heat transfer problems with temperature-dependent pore-fluid densities in the lithosphere and crust scales. Design/methodology/approach - The theoretical approach is used to determine the thickness and the related thermal boundary conditions of the continental crust on the lithospheric scale, so that some important information can be provided accurately for establishing a numerical model of the crustal scale. The numerical approach is then used to simulate the detailed structures and complicated geometries of the continental crust on the crustal scale. The main advantage in using the proposed combination method of the theoretical and numerical approaches is that if the thermal distribution in the crust is of the primary interest, the use of a reasonable numerical model on the crustal scale can result in a significant reduction in computer efforts. Findings - From the ore body formation and mineralization points of view, the present analytical and numerical solutions have demonstrated that the conductive-and-advective lithosphere with variable pore-fluid density is the most favorite lithosphere because it may result in the thinnest lithosphere so that the temperature at the near surface of the crust can be hot enough to generate the shallow ore deposits there. The upward throughflow (i.e. mantle mass flux) can have a significant effect on the thermal structure within the lithosphere. In addition, the emplacement of hot materials from the mantle may further reduce the thickness of the lithosphere. Originality/value - The present analytical solutions can be used to: validate numerical methods for solving large-scale heat transfer problems; provide correct thermal boundary conditions for numerically solving ore body formation and mineralization problems on the crustal scale; and investigate the fundamental issues related to thermal distributions within the lithosphere. The proposed finite element analysis can be effectively used to consider the geometrical and material complexities of large-scale heat transfer problems with temperature-dependent fluid densities.

Towards the preparative and large-scale precision manafacture of virus-like particles

Virus-like particles (VLPs) are of interest in vaccination, gene therapy and drug delivery, but their potential has yet to be fully realized. This is because existing laboratory processes, when scaled, do not easily give a compositionally and architecturally consistent product. Research suggests that new process routes might ultimately be based on chemical processing by self-assembly, involving the precision manufacture of precursor capsomeres followed by in vitro VLP self-assembly and scale-up to required levels. A synergistic interaction of biomolecular design and bioprocess engineering (i.e. biomolecular engineering) is required if these alternative process routes and, thus, the promise of new VLP products, are to be realized.

Parallel implementation of stochastic simulation for large scale cellular processes

Experimental and theoretical studies have shown the importance of stochastic processes in genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes. Cellular networks and genetic circuits often involve small numbers of key proteins such as transcriptional factors and signaling proteins. In recent years stochastic models have been used successfully for studying noise in biological pathways, and stochastic modelling of biological systems has become a very important research field in computational biology. One of the challenge problems in this field is the reduction of the huge computing time in stochastic simulations. Based on the system of the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade that is activated by epidermal growth factor, this work give a parallel implementation by using OpenMP and parallelism across the simulation. Special attention is paid to the independence of the generated random numbers in parallel computing, that is a key criterion for the success of stochastic simulations. Numerical results indicate that parallel computers can be used as an efficient tool for simulating the dynamics of large-scale genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes