The use of cusum analysis in the early detection and management of hospital bed occupancy crises

Objective: To assess the value of cusum analysis in hospital bed management. Design: Comparative analysis of medical patient flows, bed occupancy, and emergency department admission rates and access block over 2 years. Setting: Internal Medicine Services and Emergency Department in a teaching hospital. Interventions: Improvements in bed use and changes in the level of available beds. Main outcome measures: Average length of stay; percentage occupancy of available beds; number of patients waiting more than 8 hours for admission (access block); number of medical patients occupying beds in non-medical wards; and number of elective surgical admissions. Results: Cusum analysis provided a simple means of revealing important trends in patient flows that were not obvious in conventional time-series data. This prompted improvements in bed use that resulted in a decrease of 9500 occupied bed-days over a year. Unfortunately and unexpectedly, after some initial improvement, the levels of access block, medical ward congestion and elective surgical admissions all then deteriorated significantly. This was probably caused by excessive bed closures in response to the initial improvement in bed use. Conclusion: Cusum analysis is a useful technique for the early detection of significant changes in patient flows and bed use, and in determining the appropriate number of beds required for a given rate of patient flow.

Realtime telemedicine for paediatric otolaryngology pre-admission screening

We conducted a feasibility study to examine whether a paediatric patient at a regional hospital could be assessed by an ear, nose and throat (ENT) specialist via videoconference, therefore saving at least one journey to the tertiary hospital for a pre-admission appointment. A video-otoscope was used with standard videoconference equipment, and realtime images were transmitted at a bandwidth of 384 kbit/s. In all, 13 telepaediatric ENT clinics were conducted between November 2003 and April 2005, and 98 consultations were facilitated for 64 patients. The main reasons for referral were recurrent tonsillitis (25%) and obstructive sleep apnoea (23%). Of the 64 patients examined by telemedicine, 42 (66%) were recommended for surgery and placed on the surgical waiting list. About 12 patients (19%) required travel to the tertiary centre for further investigations and tests not available locally, while four patients (6%) were reviewed via videoconference during a scheduled clinic. Six patients (9%) required no further follow-up after their initial telepaedliatric consultation. Videoconferencing is an effective method of assessing ENT conditions of paediatric patients and for pre-screening potential surgical admissions to a tertiary hospital. Careful consideration of a number of economic and logistical factors needs to be made before large investments are made to expand the service.

Reduced between-hospital variation in short term survival after acute myocardial infarction: the result of improved cardiac care?

Objectives: To re-examine interhospital variation in 30 day survival after acute myocardial infarction ( AMI) 10 years on to see whether the appointment of new cardiologists and their involvement in emergency care has improved outcome after AMI. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Acute hospitals in Scotland. Participants: 61 484 patients with a first AMI over two time periods: 1988 - 1991; and 1998 - 2001. Main outcome measures: 30 day survival. Results: Between 1988 and 1991, median 30 day survival was 79.2% ( interhospital range 72.1 - 85.1%). The difference between highest and lowest was 13.0 percentage points ( age and sex adjusted, 12.1 percentage points). Between 1998 and 2001, median survival rose to 81.6% ( and range decreased to 78.0 - 85.6%) with a difference of 7.6 ( adjusted 8.8) percentage points. Admission hospital was an independent predictor of outcome at 30 days during the two time periods ( p< 0.001). Over the period 1988 - 1991, the odds ratio for death ranged, between hospitals, from 0.71 ( 95% confidence interval ( CI) 0.58 to 0.88) to 1.50 ( 95% CI 1.19 to 1.89) and for the period 1998 - 2001 from 0.82 ( 95% CI 0.60 to 1.13) to 1.46 ( 95% CI 1.07 to 1.99). The adjusted risk of death was significantly higher than average in nine of 26 hospitals between 1988 and 1991 but in only two hospitals between 1998 and 2001. Conclusions: The average 30 day case fatality rate after admission with an AMI has fallen substantially over the past 10 years in Scotland. Between-hospital variation is also considerably less notable because of better survival in the previously poorly performing hospitals. This suggests that the greater involvement of cardiologists in the management of AMI has paid dividends.

Do community treatment orders for mental illness reduce readmission to hospital? - An epidemiological study

Background It has been suggested that community treatment orders (CTOs) will prevent readmission to hospital, but controlled studies have been inconclusive. We aimed to test the hypothesis that hospital discharges made subject to CTOs are associated with a reduced risk of readmission. The use of such a measure is likely to change after its introduction as clinicians acquire familiarity with it, and we also tested the hypothesis that the characteristics of patients subject to CTOs changed over time in the first decade of their use in Victoria, Australia. Method A database from Victoria, Australia (total population 4.8 million) was used. Cox proportional hazard models compared the hazard ratios of readmission to hospital before the end of the study period (1992-2000) for 16,216 discharges subject to a CTO and 112,211 not subject to a CTO. Results Community treatment orders used on discharge from a first admission to hospital were associated with a higher risk of readmission, but CTOs following subsequent admissions were associated with lower readmission risk. The risk also declined over the study period. Conclusions The effect of using a CTO depends on the patient's history. At a population level their introduction may not reduce readmission to hospital. Their impact may change over time.

Pattern and correlates of inpatient admission during the initial acute phase of first-episode psychosis

Objectives: The first aim of this study was to examine the rate, pattern and correlates of inpatient admission during the first 3 months of treatment for first-episode psychosis (FEP). The second aim was to determine whether the pattern of inpatient admission during this period was associated with remission of psychotic symptoms or inpatient service use at 15-month follow-up. Method: One hundred and four consecutive patients with FEP at a specialist treatment service were approached to participate in a follow-up study. Patients were grouped on the basis of the pattern of inpatient admission (none, one, or multiple) during the first 3 months of treatment. Clinical ratings at baseline and 3-month follow-up, and ratings of remission of psychotic symptoms at 3 and 15-month follow-up, were available for two-thirds of the patients. Inpatient data for the 15-month follow-up period were derived from an electronic database for most patients (n = 98). Results: Eighty (76.9%) of the 104 patients were admitted to an inpatient unit during the first 3 months of treatment. Fifty-nine (56.7%) patients had a single admission and 21 (20.2%) had multiple admissions. At baseline, inpatient admission was associated with a diagnosis of affective psychosis and more severe behavioural and functional disturbance but not positive psychotic symptoms. Multiple admissions were associated with risks to self or others at baseline and 3-month follow-up, and lack of remission of positive symptoms at 3 and 15-month follow-up. There was no association between the pattern of inpatient admission during the initial 3-month period and inpatient service use during the following 12-month period. Conclusions: The substantial proportion of young patients with FEP admitted to hospital emphasizes the need for youth-friendly treatment environments and practices. Although patients with multiple admissions during the initial treatment period are less likely to achieve remission, these patients are no more likely to establish a pattern of revolving-door hospitalizations compared with other patients.