Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Sibling competition and parental control: Patterns of begging in parrots

Begging and food allocation patterns are the outcome of complex and repeated interactions between parents and young. In most systems studied, food allocation is regulated by begging and scramble competition. In contrast, little is understood about how nestling solicitation behaviours will evolve in systems where parents engage in complex patterns of food allocation. Parrots appear to be an excellent group in which to examine the shifting balance between sibling competition and parental control. Studies to date have shown that levels of sibling competition within parrot broods are low, possibly in response to parental control over food distribution. I assess what is known about the function of nestling begging in parrots and evaluate why begging signals appear to function differently in this group.

Rethinking the development, dissemination and adoption of agricultural technologies

This paper focuses on the higher order factors affecting successful adoption of technologies. Drawing on the "actor-oriented perspective" in rural sociology, it is argued that successful examples of adoption at this higher level result from a complex conjunction of people and events, with outcomes that may have been quite unanticipated at the outset. From this perspective, research and extension projects and programs are viewed as arenas in which social actors–village leaders, farmers, researchers (local and international), aid officials, municipal agents, extension workers, and traders–pursue their own short- and long-term objectives and strategies. To this end, they maneuver, negotiate, organize, cooperate, participate, coerce, obstruct, form coalitions, adopt, adapt, and reject, all within a specific geographical and historical context.

Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east cost humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

Management, conservation and farming of saltwater crocodiles: An Australian case study of sustainable commercial use

Opinions differ about what types of policies are likely to be most effective in conserving wildlife species. For example, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) is based on the premise that curbing the commercial use of endangered species favours their conservation, whereas the Convention on Biological Diversity envisages the possibility that such use may contribute to the conservation of species. In Australia, as illustrated in the case of the saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus), the governments of the Northern Territory and Western Australia have favoured the latter policy in recent years, whereas Queensland has favoured the former approach. The saltwater crocodile management plan of the Northern Territory provides an instructive case study of the consequences of adopting a commercial use strategy to promote wildlife conservation. The methodology used in this study, which involves a survey of crocodile farm managers and managers of cattle properties in the Northern Territory as well as secondary data, is outlined, after providing background on the conservation status of saltwater crocodiles in Australia and the saltwater crocodile management plan of the Northern Territory. In the results section, after outlining the nature and structure of the Northern Territory crocodile farming industry, evidence is presented on whether or not the crocodile management plan of the Northern Territory encourages pastoralists to conserve crocodiles on their properties. This study concludes with a discussion of the overall conservation effectiveness of the crocodile management scheme of the Northern Territory and considers its possible implications for saltwater crocodile management in areas of Asia where the species occurs.

Marine macroalgal biodiversity hotspots: why is there high species richness and endemism in southern Australian marine benthic flora?

The southern Australian marine macroalgal flora has the highest levels of species richness and endemism of any regional macroalgal flora in the world. Analyses of species composition and distributions for the southern Australian flora have identified four different floristic elements, namely the southern Australian endemic element, the widely distributed temperate element, the tropical element and a cold water element. Within the southern Australian endemic element, four species distribution patterns are apparent, thought to largely result from the Jurassic to Oligocene fragmentation of East Gondwana, the subsequent migration of Tethyan ancestors from the west Australian coast and the later invasion of high latitude Pacific species. Climatic deterioration from the late Eocene to the present is thought responsible for the replacement of the previous tropical south coast flora by an endemic temperate flora which has subsequently diversified in response to fluctuating environmental conditions, abundant rocky substrata and substantial habitat heterogeneity. High levels of endemism are attributed to Australia's long isolation and maintained, as is the high species richness, by the lack of recent mass extinction events. The warm water Leeuwin Current has had profound influence in the region since the Eocene, flowing to disperse macroalgal species onto the south coast as well as ameliorating the local environment. It is now evident that the high species richness and endemism we now observe in the southern Australian marine macroalgal flora can be attributed to a complex interaction of biogeographical, ecological and phylogenetic processes over the last 160 million years.