Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

Validation of a food-frequency questionnaire assessment of carotenoid and vitamin E intake using weighed food records and plasma biomarkers: The method of triads model

Background: Reliability or validity studies are important for the evaluation of measurement error in dietary assessment methods. An approach to validation known as the method of triads uses triangulation techniques to calculate the validity coefficient of a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Objective: To assess the validity of an FFQ estimates of carotenoid and vitamin E intake against serum biomarker measurements and weighed food records (WFRs), by applying the method of triads. Design: The study population was a sub-sample of adult participants in a randomised controlled trial of beta-carotene and sunscreen in the prevention of skin cancer. Dietary intake was assessed by a self-administered FFQ and a WFR. Nonfasting blood samples were collected and plasma analysed for five carotenoids (alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein, lycopene) and vitamin E. Correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the dietary methods and the validity coefficient was calculated using the method of triads. The 95% confidence intervals for the validity coefficients were estimated using bootstrap sampling. Results: The validity coefficients of the FFQ were highest for alpha-carotene (0.85) and lycopene (0.62), followed by beta- carotene (0.55) and total carotenoids (0.55), while the lowest validity coefficient was for lutein (0.19). The method of triads could not be used for b- cryptoxanthin and vitamin E, as one of the three underlying correlations was negative. Conclusions: Results were similar to other studies of validity using biomarkers and the method of triads. For many dietary factors, the upper limit of the validity coefficients was less than 0.5 and therefore only strong relationships between dietary exposure and disease will be detected.

Hypermethylation of the 5 ' CpG island of the gene encoding the serine protease Testisin promotes its loss in testicular tumorigenesis

The Testisin gene (PRSS21) encodes a glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-linked serine protease that exhibits testis tissue-specific expression. Loss of Testisin has been implicated in testicular tumorigenesis, but its role in testis biology and tumorigenesis is not known. Here we have investigated the role of CpG methylation in Testisin gene inactivation and tested the hypothesis that Testisin may act as a tumour suppressor for testicular tumorigenesis. Using sequence analysis of bisulphite-treated genomic DNA, we find a strong relationship between hypermethylation of a 385 bp 50 CpG rich island of the Testisin gene, and silencing of the Testisin gene in a range of human tumour cell lines and in 100% (eight/eight) of testicular germ cell tumours. We show that treatment of Testisin-negative cell lines with demethylating agents and/or a histone deacetylase inhibitor results in reactivation of Testisin gene expression, implicating hypermethylation in Testisin gene silencing. Stable expression of Testisin in the Testisin-negative Tera-2 testicular cancer line suppressed tumorigenicity as revealed by inhibition of both anchorage-dependent cell growth and tumour formation in an SCID mouse model of testicular tumorigenesis. Together, these data show that loss of Testisin is caused, at least in part, by DNA hypermethylation and histone deacetylation, and suggest a tumour suppressor role for Testisin in testicular tumorigenesis.

Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Analysis of the error performance of adaptive array antennas for CDMA with noncoherent M-ary orthogonal modulation in Nakagami fading

This letter presents an analytical model for evaluating the Bit Error Rate (BER) of a Direct Sequence Code Division Multiple Access (DS-CDMA) system, with M-ary orthogonal modulation and noncoherent detection, employing an array antenna operating in a Nakagami fading environment. An expression of the Signal to Interference plus Noise Ratio (SINR) at the output of the receiver is derived, which allows the BER to be evaluated using a closed form expression. The analytical model is validated by comparing the obtained results with simulation results.

Artificial pumping errors in the Kool-Parker scaling model of soil moisture hysteresis

Hysteresis models that eliminate the artificial pumping errors associated with the Kool-Parker (KP) soil moisture hysteresis model, such as the Parker-Lenhard (PL) method, can be computationally demanding in unsaturated transport models since they need to retain the wetting-drying history of the system. The pumping errors in these models need to be eliminated for correct simulation of cyclical systems (e.g. transport above a tidally forced watertable, infiltration and redistribution under periodic irrigation) if the soils exhibit significant hysteresis. A modification is made here to the PL method that allows it to be more readily applied to numerical models by eliminating the need to store a large number of soil moisture reversal points. The modified-PL method largely eliminates any artificial pumping error and so essentially retains the accuracy of the original PL approach. The modified-PL method is implemented in HYDRUS-1D (version 2.0), which is then used to simulate cyclic capillary fringe dynamics to show the influence of removing artificial pumping errors and to demonstrate the ease of implementation. Artificial pumping errors are shown to be significant for the soils and system characteristics used here in numerical experiments of transport above a fluctuating watertable. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Operator quantum error correction

This paper is an expanded and more detailed version of the work [1] in which the Operator Quantum Error Correction formalism was introduced. This is a new scheme for the error correction of quantum operations that incorporates the known techniques - i.e. the standard error correction model, the method of decoherence-free subspaces, and the noiseless subsystem method - as special cases, and relies on a generalized mathematical framework for noiseless subsystems that applies to arbitrary quantum operations. We also discuss a number of examples and introduce the notion of unitarily noiseless subsystems.

Salicylic acid mediates resistance to the vascular wilt pathogen Fusarium oxysporum in the model host Arabidopsis thaliana

Fusarium oxysporum is a soilborne fungal pathogen that causes major economic losses by inducing necrosis and wilting symptoms in many crop plants. In this study, the interaction between F. oxysporum and the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana has been investigated to better understand the nature of host defences that are effective against the Fusarium wilt pathogen. The expression of salicylate- and jasmonate-responsive defence genes in F. oxysporum-challenged roots of A. thaliana plants as well as in the roots of plants whose leaves were treated with salicylate or jasmonate was analysed. Unexpectedly, genes (e.g. PR1, PDF1.2, and CHIB) encoding proteins with defensive functions or transcription factors (e.g. ERF1, AtERF2, AtERF4 and AtMYC2) known to positively or negatively regulate defences against F. oxysporum were not activated in F. oxysporum-inoculated roots. In contrast, the jasmonate-responsive defence gene PDF1.2 was induced in the leaves of plants whose roots were challenged with F. oxysporum, but the salicylate- responsive PR1 gene was not induced in the leaves of inoculated plants. Exogenous salicylic acid treatment prior to inoculation, however, activated PR1 and BGL2 defence gene expression in leaves and provided increased F. oxysporum resistance as evidenced by reduced foliar necrosis and plant death. Exogenous salicylic acid treatment of the foliar tissue did not activate defence gene expression in the roots of plants. This suggests that salicylate- dependent defences may function in foliar tissue to reduce the development of pathogen-induced wilting and necrosis. Despite the induction of defence gene expression in the leaves by jasmonate, this treatment did not lead to increased resistance to F. oxysporum. Overall, the results presented here suggest that the genetic manipulation of plant defence signalling pathways is a useful strategy to provide increased Fusarium wilt resistance.

Model checking Z specifications using SAL

The Symbolic Analysis Laboratory (SAL) is a suite of tools for analysis of state transition systems. Tools supported include a simulator and four temporal logic model checkers. The common input language to these tools was originally developed with translation from other languages, both programming and specification languages, in mind. It is, therefore, a rich language supporting a range of type definitions and expressions. In this paper, we investigate the translation of Z specifications into the SAL language as a means of providing model checking support for Z. This is facilitated by a library of SAL definitions encoding the Z mathematical toolkit.

Making Fedora easier to implement with Fez: A free open source content model and workflow management front-end to Fedora

The University of Queensland, Australia has developed Fez, a world-leading user-interface and management system for Fedora-based institutional repositories, which bridges the gap between a repository and users. Christiaan Kortekaas, Andrew Bennett and Keith Webster will review this open source software that gives institutions the power to create a comprehensive repository solution without the hassle..

A modified discrete random pore model allowing for different initial surface reactivity

We investigate here a modification of the discrete random pore model [Bhatia SK, Vartak BJ, Carbon 1996;34:1383], by including an additional rate constant which takes into account the different reactivity of the initial pore surface having attached functional groups and hydrogens, relative to the subsequently exposed surface. It is observed that the relative initial reactivity has a significant effect on the conversion and structural evolution, underscoring the importance of initial surface chemistry. The model is tested against experimental data on chemically controlled char oxidation and steam gasification at various temperatures. It is seen that the variations of the reaction rate and surface area with conversion are better represented by the present approach than earlier random pore models. The results clearly indicate the improvement of model predictions in the low conversion region, where the effect of the initially attached functional groups and hydrogens is more significant, particularly for char oxidation. It is also seen that, for the data examined, the initial surface chemistry is less important for steam gasification as compared to the oxidation reaction. Further development of the approach must also incorporate the dynamics of surface complexation, which is not considered here.

Adsorption in mesopores: A molecular-continuum model with application to MCM-41

The classical model of surface layering followed by capillary condensation during adsorption in mesopores, is modified here by consideration of the adsorbate solid interaction potential. The new theory accurately predicts the capillary coexistence curve as well as pore criticality, matching that predicted by density functional theory. The model also satisfactorily predicts the isotherm for nitrogen adsorption at 77.4 K on MCM-41 material of various pore sizes, synthesized and characterized in our laboratory, including the multilayer region, using only data on the variation of condensation pressures with pore diameter. The results indicate a minimum mesopore diameter for the surface layering model to hold as 14.1 Å, below which size micropore filling must occur, and a minimum pore diameter for mechanical stability of the hemispherical meniscus during desorption as 34.2 Å. For pores in-between these two sizes reversible condensation is predicted to occur, in accord with the experimental data for nitrogen adsorption on MCM-41 at 77.4 K.

A Nonstationary Model of Newborn EEG

The detection of seizure in the newborn is a critical aspect of neurological research. Current automatic detection techniques are difficult to assess due to the problems associated with acquiring and labelling newborn electroencephalogram (EEG) data. A realistic model for newborn EEG would allow confident development, assessment and comparison of these detection techniques. This paper presents a model for newborn EEG that accounts for its self-similar and non-stationary nature. The model consists of background and seizure sub-models. The newborn EEG background model is based on the short-time power spectrum with a time-varying power law. The relationship between the fractal dimension and the power law of a power spectrum is utilized for accurate estimation of the short-time power law exponent. The newborn EEG seizure model is based on a well-known time-frequency signal model. This model addresses all significant time-frequency characteristics of newborn EEG seizure which include; multiple components or harmonics, piecewise linear instantaneous frequency laws and harmonic amplitude modulation. Estimates of the parameters of both models are shown to be random and are modelled using the data from a total of 500 background epochs and 204 seizure epochs. The newborn EEG background and seizure models are validated against real newborn EEG data using the correlation coefficient. The results show that the output of the proposed models has a higher correlation with real newborn EEG than currently accepted models (a 10% and 38% improvement for background and seizure models, respectively).

Parliament House Competition Model, Canberra

View of model for competition entry.