Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis?

This paper studies life-cycle preferences over consumption and health status. We show that cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis if the Lifetime utility function is additive over time, multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status, and if the utility of consumption is constant over time. We derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form, both under expected utility theory and under rank-dependent utility theory, which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory. If cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis, it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The willingness to pay for QALYs depends on wealth, remaining life expectancy, health status, and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proposal for the interaction of non-conventional partial agonists and catecholamines with the 'putative beta(4)-adrenoceptor' in mammalian heart

1. Evidence for a 'putative beta(4)-adrenoceptor' originated over 20 years ago when cardiostimulant effects were observed to nonconventional partial agonists, These agonists were originally described as beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenoceptor antagonists; however, they cause cardiostimulant effects at much higher concentrations than those required to block beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenoceptors. Cardiostimulant effects of non-conventional partial agonists have been observed in mouse, rat, guinea-pig, cat, ferret and human heart tissues, 2. The receptor is expressed in several heart regions, including the sinoatrial node, atrium and ventricle, 3. The receptor is resistant to blockade by most antagonists that possess high affinity for beta(1)- and beta(2)- adrenoceptors, but is blocked with moderate affinity by (-)-bupranolol and CGP 20712A. 4. The receptor is pharmacologically distinct from the beta(3)-adrenoceptor. Micromolar concentrations of beta(3)-adrenoceptor agonists have no agonist or blocking activity, The receptor is also resistant to blockade by a beta(3)-adrenoceptor-selective antagonist. 5. The receptor mediates increases in cAMP levels and cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PK) A activity in cardiac tissues. Phosphodiesterase inhibition potentiates the positive chronotropic and inotropic effects of non-conventional partial agonists. 6. The receptor mediates hastening of atrial and ventricular relaxation, which is consistent with involvement of a cAMP-dependent pathway. 7. The non-conventional partial agonist (-)-[H-3]-CGP 12177A labels the cardiac putative beta(4)-adrenoceptor, Non-conventional partial agonists compete for binding with affinities that are closely similar to their agonist potencies, Catecholamines compete for binding in a stereoselective manner with a rank order of affinity of (-)-R0363 > (-)-isoprenaline > (-)-noradrenaline greater than or equal to (-)-adrenaline much greater than (-)-isoprenaline, suggesting that catecholamines can interact with the receptor. 8. The putative beta(4)-adrenoceptor appears to be coupled to the G(s)-adenylyl cyclase system, which could serve as a guide to its future cloning, Activation of the receptor may plausibly improve diastolic function but could also mediate arrhythmias.

Effect of resinite on the combustion of New Zealand subbituminous coal

Oligocene resin from New Zealand's Rotowaro coalfield displays DTA and DTG traces similar to those of other fossil resins. It modifies the thermal behaviour of low rank coal in raising the peak combustion temperature and lowering its rate of combustion, a behaviour that may be common among liptinite macerals. The effect is not additive and unlike other coal constituents the resinite component does not deteriorate with time. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Public choice of species for the ark: Phylogenetic similarity and preferred wildlife species for survival

Humans play a role in deciding the fate of species in the current extinction wave. Because of the previous Similarity Principle, physical attractiveness and likeability, it has been argued that public choice favours the survival of species that satisfy these criteria at the expense of other species. This paper empirically tests this argument by considering a hypothetical ‘Ark’ situation. Surveys of 204 members of the Australian public inquired whether they are in favour of the survival of each of 24 native mammal, bird and reptile species (prior to and after information provision about each species). The species were ranked by percentage of ‘yes’ votes received. Species composition by taxon in various fractions of the ranking was determined. If the previous Similarity Principle holds, mammals should rank highly and dominate the top fractions of animals saved in the hierarchical list. We find that although mammals would be over-represented in the ‘Ark’, birds and reptiles are unlikely to be excluded when social choice is based on numbers ‘voting’ for the survival of each species. Support for the previous Similarity Principle is apparent particularly after information provision. Public policy implications of this are noted and recommendations are given.

The ratio of messenger RNA levels of receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand to osteoprotegerin correlates with bone remodeling indices in normal human cancellous bone but not in osteoarthritis

skeletal disease. Bone remodeling is initiated by osteoclastic resorption followed by osteoblastic formation of new bone. Receptor activator of nuclear factor KB ligand (RANKL) is a newly described regulator of osteoclast formation and function, the activity of which appears to be a balance between interaction with its receptor RANK and with an antagonist binding protein osteoprotegerin (OPG). Therefore, we have examined the relationship between the expression of RANKL, RANK, and OPG and indices of bone structure and turnover in human cancellous bone from the proximal femur. Bone samples were obtained from individuals with osteoarthritis (OA) at joint replacement surgery and from autopsy controls. Histomorphometric analysis of these samples showed that eroded surface (ES/BS) and osteoid surface (OS/BS) were positively associated in both control (p < 0.001) and OA (p < 0.02), indicating that the processes of bone resorption and bone formation remain coupled in OA, as they are in controls. RANKL, OPG, and RANK messenger RNA, (mRNA) were abundant in human cancellous bone, with significant differences between control and OA individuals. In coplotting the molecular and histomorphometric data, strong associations were found between the ratio of RANKL/OPG mRNA and the indices of bone turnover (RANKL/OPG vs. ES/BS: r = 0.93, p < 0.001; RANKL/OPG vs. OS/BS: r = 0.80, p < 0.001). These relationships were not evident in trabecular bone from severe OA, suggesting that bone turnover may be regulated differently in this disease. We propose that the effective concentration of RANKL is related causally to bone turnover.

Randomized controlled trial of two cigarette quit programmes in coronary care patients after acute myocardial infarction

Background: Tobacco cessation after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) substantially improves outcome but how effective individual programmes are needs to be established. To date, few studies have examined this factor. Aims: To assess the outcome of two smoking cessation programmes after AMI. Methods: One hundred and ninety-eight current smokers admitted to coronary care with an AMI participated in a randomized controlled study comparing two outpatient tobacco interventions, the Stanford Heart Attack Staying Free (SF) programme and a Usual Care (UC) programme. Results: Log-rank analyses revealed that patients in the SF programme were retained longer (P < 0.001) and had higher cotinine validated abstinence rates (P < 0.001) compared with patients in the UC programme. Twelve months after intervention, 39% of the SF programme compared with 2% of the UC programme demonstrated cotinine validated tobacco cessation, representing a significant reduced relapse rate in the SF programme (chi (2), P < 0.001). Conclusions: The SF smoking cessation programme initiated in hospital can significantly reduce smoking rates at 12 months after myocardial infarction. Although superior to the UC quit programme, Australian outcomes were lower than the American programme originators' published outcomes.

Slagging propensities of blended coals

This paper presents the experimental results on the slagging propensity of three pairs of blended coals tested in the Australian Coal Industry Research Laboratory furnace. The results showed that none of the coals or blends produced strongly molten deposit. At worst, the deposits contained some moderately sintered material. Most of the blends have (slightly) worse slagging behavior than the component coals. In order to rank the slagging propensity numerically, we defined the minimum heat flux ratio and total heat flux ratio based on the heat flux profiles. They are better in ranking the slagging propensities than other measures such as the build-up rate and visual physical characteristics. The Fe2O3/CaO molar ratio correlates the slagging propensity for five coals and six blends of this study. The worst slagging occurs when the ratio approaches 1.0. This ratio provides explanation of why the blends had worse slagging than the component coals for the pairs of blends: A-B and C-D. However, we note that there are causes of slagging other than the Fe2O3/CaO molar ratio. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Timing and magnitude of peak height velocity and peak tissue velocities for early, average, and late maturing boys and girls

Height, weight, and tissue accrual were determined in 60 male and 53 female adolescents measured annually over six years using standard anthropometry and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Annual velocities were derived, and the ages and magnitudes of peak height and peak tissue velocities were determined using a cubic spline fit to individual data. Individuals were rank ordered on the basis of sex and age at peak height velocity (PHV) and then divided into quartiles: early (lowest quartile), average (middle two quartiles), and late (highest quartile) maturers. Sex- and maturity-related comparisons in ages and magnitudes of peak height and peak tissue velocities were made. Males reached peak velocities significantly later than females for all tissues and had significantly greater magnitudes at peak. The age at PHV was negatively correlated with the magnitude of PHV in both sexes. At a similar maturity point (age at PHV) there were no differences in weight or fat mass among maturity groups in both sexes. Late maturing males, however, accrued more bone mineral and lean mass and were taller at the age of PHV compared to early maturers. Thus, maturational status (early, average, or late maturity) as indicated by age at PHV is inversely related to the magnitude and late maturers for weight and fat mass in boys and girls. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 13:1-8, 2001. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Begging and food distribution in crimson rosella (Platycercus elegans) broods: why don't hungry chicks beg more?

Altricial nestlings solicit food by begging and engaging in scramble competition. Solicitation displays can thus signal both hunger and competitive ability. I examined nestling solicitation and parental responses in crimson rosellas (Platycercus elegans), a species in which parents engage in complex patterns of food allocation and appear to control the distribution of food. By manipulating the hunger of individual chicks and entire broods, I assessed how chick behaviours and parental food allocation varied with hatching rank, level of hunger, and intensity of nestling competition. Last-hatched chicks begged more than first-hatched chicks irrespective of individual hunger levels. The two parents combined fed individually hungry chicks more, but mothers and fathers varied in their responses to begging chicks: fathers fed last-hatched chicks in proportion to their begging intensity, whereas mothers fed chicks equally. Since fathers generally allocate more food to first-hatched chicks, fathers appear to use begging rates to adjust food allocation to non-preferred chicks within the brood. When I manipulated brood hunger levels, begging rates increased for first- and last-hatched chicks suggesting that chick begging rates are sensitive to the level of competition. This study shows that begging by rosella chicks does not correlate with hunger in a straightforward way and that the primary patterns of food allocation by parents art: not influenced by chick begging. Thus the benefits of increased begging may be limited for nestlings in this species.

Spontaneous-combustion propensity of New Zealand coals under adiabatic conditions

Pulverised New Zealand coal samples have been tested from an initial temperature of 40 degreesC and reacted adiabatisally in an oven with oxygen to provide a full temperature history of auto-oxidation up to the self-sustained process of combustion. This procedure produces a self-heating rate index, R-70, calculated as the ratio of the time taken to reach 70 degreesC (degreesC/h). The R-70 index is a measure of the coal's propensity to spontaneous combustion. R-70 values for New Zealand coals are much higher than any previously published results. They show a rank dependence, whereby subbituminous coals have the highest propensity to spontaneous combustion (14.91-17.23 degreesC/h). A lignite sample has an R-70 value of 7.76 degreesC/h, and high-volatile bituminous B coals have R-70 values of 0.31-2.23 degreesC/h. Samples stored for 2 years show the same rank trend. The nature of this trend is most likely a function of the internal surface area of the coal that governs the available sites for oxidation. Calculating the Suggate rank; for any New Zealand coal can be used to rare its propensity to spontaneous combustion. Resin bodies in the subbituminous coal show no propensity to spontaneous combustion. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Peritoneal cytology: impact on disease-free survival in clinical stage I endometrioid adenocarcinoma of the uterus

The prognostic significance of positive peritoneal cytology in endometrial carcinoma has led to the incorporation of peritoneal cytology into the current FIGO staging system, While cytology was shown to be prognostically relevant in patients with stage II and III disease, conflicting data exists about its significance in patients who would have been stage I but were classified as stage III solely and exclusively on the basis of positive peritoneal cytology (clinical stage I). Analysis was based on the data of 369 consecutive patients with clinical stage I endometrioid adenocarcinoma of the endometrium. Standard treatment consisted of an abdominal total hysterectomy, bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy with or without pelvic lymph node dissection. Peritoneal cytology was obtained at laparotomy by peritoneal washing of the pouch of Douglas and was considered positive if malignant cells could be detected regardless of the number of malignant cells present. Disease-free survival (DFS) was considered the primary statistical endpoint. In 13/369 (3.5%) patients, positive peritoneal cytology was found. The median follow-up was 29 months and 15 recurrences occurred. Peritoneal cytology was independent of the depth of myometrial invasion and the grade of tumour differentiation, Patients with negative washings had a DFS of 96'7e at 36 months compared with 67% for patients with positive washings (log-rank P < 0.001). The presence of positive peritoneal cytology in patients with clinically stage I endometrioid adenocarcinoma of the endometrium is considered an adverse prognostic factor. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mixture model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data

Motivation: This paper introduces the software EMMIX-GENE that has been developed for the specific purpose of a model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data, in particular, of tissue samples on a very large number of genes. The latter is a nonstandard problem in parametric cluster analysis because the dimension of the feature space (the number of genes) is typically much greater than the number of tissues. A feasible approach is provided by first selecting a subset of the genes relevant for the clustering of the tissue samples by fitting mixtures of t distributions to rank the genes in order of increasing size of the likelihood ratio statistic for the test of one versus two components in the mixture model. The imposition of a threshold on the likelihood ratio statistic used in conjunction with a threshold on the size of a cluster allows the selection of a relevant set of genes. However, even this reduced set of genes will usually be too large for a normal mixture model to be fitted directly to the tissues, and so the use of mixtures of factor analyzers is exploited to reduce effectively the dimension of the feature space of genes. Results: The usefulness of the EMMIX-GENE approach for the clustering of tissue samples is demonstrated on two well-known data sets on colon and leukaemia tissues. For both data sets, relevant subsets of the genes are able to be selected that reveal interesting clusterings of the tissues that are either consistent with the external classification of the tissues or with background and biological knowledge of these sets.

Linkage of Paget disease of bone to a novel region on human chromosome 18q23

Paget disease of bone (PDB) is characterized by increased osteoclast activity and localized abnormal bone remodeling. PDB has a significant genetic component, with evidence of linkage to chromosomes 6p21.3 (PDB1) and 18q21-22 (PDB2) in some pedigrees. There is evidence of genetic heterogeneity, with other pedigrees showing negative linkage to these regions. TNFRSF11A, a gene that is essential for osteoclast formation and that encodes receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa B (RANK), has been mapped to the PDB2 region. TNFRSF11A mutations that segregate in pedigrees with either familial expansile osteolysis or familial PDB have been identified; however, linkage studies and mutation screening have excluded the involvement of RANK in the majority of patients with PDB. We have excluded linkage, both to PDB1 and to PDB2, in a large multigenerational pedigree with multiple family members affected by PDB. We have conducted a genomewide scan of this pedigree, followed by fine mapping and multipoint analysis in regions of interest. The peak two-point LOD scores from the genomewide scan were 2.75, at D7S507, and 1.76, at D18S70. Multipoint and haplotype analysis of markers flanking D7S507 did not support linkage to this region. Haplotype analysis of markers flanking D18S70 demonstrated a haplotype segregating with PDB in a large subpedigree. This subpedigree had a significantly lower age at diagnosis than the rest of the pedigree (51.2 +/- 8.5 vs. 64.2 +/- 9.7 years; P = .0012). Linkage analysis of this subpedigree demonstrated a peak two-point LOD score of 4.23, at marker D18S1390 (theta = 0), and a peak multipoint LOD score of 4.71, at marker D18S70. Our data are consistent with genetic heterogeneity within the pedigree and indicate that 18q23 harbors a novel susceptibility gene for PDB.