Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat or upon other species in the environment if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often subjected to some form of control. One common control regime is the reduction regime: when the population reaches a certain threshold it is controlled (for example culled) until it falls below a lower predefined level. The natural model for such a controlled population is a birth-death process with two phases, the phase determining which of two distinct sets of birth and death rates governs the process. We present formulae for the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and discuss several applications. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prolactin and the expression of suppressor of cytokine signaling-3 in the sheep adrenal gland before birth

Prolactin and the expression of suppressor of cytokine signaling-3 in the sheep adrenal gland before birth. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 291: R1399-R1405, 2006. First published June 29, 2006; doi: 10.1152/ajpregu.00252.2006.-The fetal pituitary-adrenal axis plays a key role in the fetal response to intrauterine stress and in the timing of parturition. The fetal sheep adrenal gland is relatively refractory to stimulation in midgestation (90-120 days) before the prepartum activation, which occurs around 135 days gestation (term = 147 +/- 3 days). The mechanisms underlying the switch from adrenal quiescence to activation are unclear. Therefore, we have investigated the expression of suppressor of cytokine signaling-3 (SOCS-3), a putative inhibitor of tissue growth in the fetal sheep adrenal between 50 and 145 days gestation and in the adrenal of the growth-restricted fetal sheep in late gestation. SOCS-3 is activated by a range of cytokines, including prolactin (PRL), and we have, therefore, determined whether PRL administered in vivo or in vitro stimulates SOCS-3 mRNA expression in the fetal adrenal in late gestation. There was a decrease (P < 0.005) in SOCS-3 expression in the fetal adrenal between 54 and 133 days and between 141 and 144 days gestation. Infusion of the dopaminergic agonist, bromocriptine, which suppressed fetal PRL concentrations but did not decrease adrenal SOCS-3 mRNA expression. PRL administration, however, significantly increased adrenal SOCS-3 mRNA expression (P < 0.05). Similarly, there was an increase (P < 0.05) in SOCS-3 mRNA expression in adrenocortical cells in vitro after exposure to PRL (50 ng/ml). Placental and fetal growth restriction had no effect on SOCS-3 expression in the adrenal during late gestation. In summary, the decrease in the expression of the inhibitor SOCS-3 after 133 days gestation may be permissive for a subsequent increase in fetal adrenal growth before birth. We conclude that factors other than PRL act to maintain adrenal SOCS-3 mRNA expression before 133 days gestation but that acute elevations of PRL can act to upregulate adrenal SOCS-3 expression in the sheep fetus during late gestation.

Risk factors for schizophrenia. Follow-up data from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort Study

This paper updates single risk factors identified by the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort Study up to the end of year 2001 or age 34. Impaired performance (e.g., delayed motor or intellectual development) or adverse exposures (e.g., pregnancy and birth complications, central nervous system diseases) are associated with an increased risk for schizophrenia. However, upper social class girls and clever schoolboys also have an increased risk to develop schizophrenia, contrasted to their peers. Individuals who subsequently develop schizophrenia follow a developmental trajectory that partly and subtly differs from that of the general population; this trajectory lacks flexibility and responsiveness compared to control subjects, at least in the early stages. We propose a descriptive, lifespan, multilevel systems model on the development and course of schizophrenia.

Season of birth is associated with anthropometric and neurocognitive outcomes during infancy and childhood in a general population birth cohort

The 'season of birth' effect is one of the most consistently replicated associations in schizophrenia epidemiology. In contrast, the association between season of birth and development in the general Population is relatively poorly understood. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of season of birth on various anthropometric and neurocognitive variables from birth to age seven in a large, community-based birth cohort. A sample of white singleton infants born after 37 weeks gestation (n =22,123) was drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. Anthropometric variables (weight, head circumference, length/height) and various measures of neurocognitive development, were assessed at birth, 8 months, 4 and 7 years of age. Compared to surnmer/autumn born infants, winter/spring born infants were significantly longer at birth, and at age seven were significantly heavier, taller and had larger head circumference. Winter/spring born infants were achieving significantly higher scores on the Bayley Motor Score at 8 months, the Graham-Ernhart Block Test at age 4, the Wechsler Intelligence Performance and Full Scale scores at age 7, but had significantly lower scores on the Bender-Gestalt Test at age 7 years. Winter/spring birth, while associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia, is generally associated with superior outcomes with respect to physical and cognitive development. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hypertension, glomerular number, and birth weight in African Americans and white subjects in the southeastern United States

Low nephron number has been related to low birth weight and hypertension. In the southeastern United States, the estimated prevalence of chronic kidney disease due to hypertension is five times greater for African Americans than white subjects. This study investigates the relationships between total glomerular number (N-glom), blood pressure, and birth weight in southeastern African Americans and white subjects. Stereological estimates of N-glom were obtained using the physical disector/fractionator technique on autopsy kidneys from 62 African American and 60 white subjects 30-65 years of age. By medical history and recorded blood pressures, 41 African Americans, and 24 white subjects were identified as hypertensive and 21 African Americans and 36 white subjects as normotensive. Mean arterial blood pressure ( MAP) was obtained on 81 and birth weights on 63 subjects. For African Americans, relationships between MAP, N-glom, and birth weight were not significant. For white subjects, they were as follows: MAP and N-glom ( r = -0.4551, P = 0.0047); Nglom and birth weight ( r = 0.5730, P = 0.0022); MAP and birth weight ( r = -0.4228, P = 0.0377). For African Americans, average N-glom of 961 840 +/- 292 750 for normotensive and 867 358 +/- 341 958 for hypertensive patients were not significantly different ( P = 0.285). For white subjects, average N-glom of 923 377 +/- 256 391 for normotensive and 754 319 +/- 329 506 for hypertensive patients were significantly different ( P = 0.03). The data indicate that low nephron number and possibly low birth weight may play a role in the development of hypertension in white subjects but not African Americans.

Birth weight and age at menopause in Australian female twin pairs: exploration of the fetal origin hypothesis

In a twin sample where duration of gestation can be controlled, a specific example of the fetal origins hypothesis concerning association between low birth weight and early age at menopause is explored. The hypothesis is based on the physiologically plausible path from intrauterine growth retardation and reduced numbers of primary follicles to an earlier menopause. The sample comprised 323 Australian female twin pairs where both co-twins had reached menopause naturally and reported on their weight at birth. Regression analysis showed no linear association between the two variables (P = 0.371, r(2) = 0.0009). Intra-pair differences in age at menopause were investigated in the context of relative birth weight of co-twins. In 265 pairs an intra-pair birth a eight difference was reported. In monozygotic (MZ) pairs (n = 168) this allowed for control of genetic effects as well as gestation duration. No significant differences dependent on birth weight relative to co-twin were found for age at natural menopause in either MZ or dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs, even in pairs whose birth weights differed markedly. There was some indication that twins with premature ovarian failure were heavier at birth than twins with normal or later menopausal age. We conclude that the hypothesis that lower birth weight is associated with earlier menopause is not supported by our data.