46 resultados para Uncertainty Quantification


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Real-time Taqman(TM) RT-PCR was used to make quantitative comparisons of the levels of PrRP mRNA expression in micropunch brain samples from rats at different stages of the oestrous cycle and in lactation. The nucleus of the solitary tract and ventrolateral reticular nuclei of the medulla oblongata contained significantly (P < 0.05) greater levels of PrRP mRNA than any hypothalamic region. Within the hypothalamus, the highest level of PrRP expression was localised to the dorsomedial aspect of the ventromedial hypothalamus. All other hypothalamic regions exhibited significantly (P < 0.05) lower levels of expression, including the rostral and caudal dorsomedial hypothalamus. Very low levels of PrRP expression were observed in the arcuate nucleus, paraventricular nucleus, medial preoptic nucleus and ventrolateral aspect of the ventromedial hypothalamus. No significant changes in PrRP expression were noted in any sampled region between proestrus, oestrus or dioestrus. Similarly, PrRP expression in hypothalamic regions did not differ between lactating and non-lactating (dioestrous) animals. During validation of RT-PCR techniques we cloned and sequenced a novel splice variant of PrRP from the hypothalamus. This variant arises from alternative splicing of the donor site within exon 2, resulting in an insert of 64 base pairs and shift in the-codon:reading frame with the introduction of an early stop codon. In the hypothalamus and brainstem, mRNA expression of the variant was restricted to regions that expressed PrRP. These results suggest that PrRP expression in the hypothalamus may be more Widespread than previously reported. However, the relatively low level of PrRP in the hypothalamus and the lack of significant changes in expression during the oestrous cycle and lactation provides further evidence that PrRP is unlikely to be involved in the regulation of prolactin, secretion. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Phylogenetic trees can provide a stable basis for a higher-level classification of organisms that reflects evolutionary relationships. However, some lineages have a complex evolutionary history that involves explosive radiation or hybridisation. Such histories have become increasingly apparent with the use of DNA sequence data for phylogeny estimation and explain, in part, past difficulties in producing stable morphology-based classifications for some groups. We illustrate this situation by using the example of tribe Mirbelieae (Fabaceae), whose generic classification has been fraught for decades. In particular, we discuss a recent proposal to combine 19 of the 25 Mirbelieae genera into a single genus, Pultenaea sens. lat., and how we might find stable and consistent ways to squeeze something as complex as life into little boxes for our own convenience. © CSIRO.

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The use of X-ray imaging to assess variability in ceramic fabrication is common in archaeological studies aimed at examining ancient pottery technologies. In this paper, a method based on the measurement of individual pores orientation is presented. This method is successfully applied to ceramic specimens of known origin whose structure signified different deformation histories.

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In most previous work on strategic trade policy the form of government intervention has been prescribed in advance. In this paper, we apply a solution concept discussed by Klemperer and Meyer for games in which the strategy space consists of the class of all (non state-contingent) price quantity schedules. We examine a series of specific assumptions on demand and supply conditions and derive the associated equilibrium trade policies. We derive welfare implications for all cases examined.

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Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

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Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?