Cold periods and coronary events: an analysis of populations worldwide

Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35 - 64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days.

Detecting finite bandwidth periodic signals in stationary noise using the signal coherence spectrum

All signals that appear to be periodic have some sort of variability from period to period regardless of how stable they appear to be in a data plot. A true sinusoidal time series is a deterministic function of time that never changes and thus has zero bandwidth around the sinusoid's frequency. A zero bandwidth is impossible in nature since all signals have some intrinsic variability over time. Deterministic sinusoids are used to model cycles as a mathematical convenience. Hinich [IEEE J. Oceanic Eng. 25 (2) (2000) 256-261] introduced a parametric statistical model, called the randomly modulated periodicity (RMP) that allows one to capture the intrinsic variability of a cycle. As with a deterministic periodic signal the RMP can have a number of harmonics. The likelihood ratio test for this model when the amplitudes and phases are known is given in [M.J. Hinich, Signal Processing 83 (2003) 1349-13521. A method for detecting a RMP whose amplitudes and phases are unknown random process plus a stationary noise process is addressed in this paper. The only assumption on the additive noise is that it has finite dependence and finite moments. Using simulations based on a simple RMP model we show a case where the new method can detect the signal when the signal is not detectable in a standard waterfall spectrograrn display. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Causality detection on US mutual fund movements using evolutionary subset time-series

In this paper we develop an evolutionary kernel-based time update algorithm to recursively estimate subset discrete lag models (including fullorder models) with a forgetting factor and a constant term, using the exactwindowed case. The algorithm applies to causality detection when the true relationship occurs with a continuous or a random delay. We then demonstrate the use of the proposed evolutionary algorithm to study the monthly mutual fund data, which come from the 'CRSP Survivor-bias free US Mutual Fund Database'. The results show that the NAV is an influential player on the international stage of global bond and stock markets.

Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sprint patterns in rugby union players during competition

The purpose of this study was to characterize sprint patterns of rugby union players during competition. Velocity profiles (60 m) of 28 rugby players were initially established in testing from standing, walking, jogging, and striding starts. During competition, the individual sprinting patterns of 17 rugby players were determined from video by using the individual velocity profiles. Forwards commenced sprints from a standing start most frequently (41%), whereas backs sprinted from standing (29%), walking (29%),jogging (29%), and occasionally striding (13%) starts. Forwards and backs achieved speeds in excess of 90% maximal velocity (Vmax) on 5 +/- 4 and 9 +/- 4 occasions (similar to 50% of the sprints performed), respectively, during competition. The higher frequency of sprinting for the backs compared with the forwards highlights the importance of speed training for this positional group. The similar relative distribution of velocities achieved during competition for forwards and backs suggests both positional groups should train acceleration and Vmax qualities. The backs should have a higher total volume of sprint training. Sprinting efforts should be performed from a variety of starting speeds to mimic the movement patterns of competition.

Using intervention time series analyses to assess the effects of imperfectly identifiable natural events: A general method and example

BACKGROUND: Intervention time series analysis (ITSA) is an important method for analysing the effect of sudden events on time series data. ITSA methods are quasi-experimental in nature and the validity of modelling with these methods depends upon assumptions about the timing of the intervention and the response of the process to it. METHOD: This paper describes how to apply ITSA to analyse the impact of unplanned events on time series when the timing of the event is not accurately known, and so the problems of ITSA methods are magnified by uncertainty in the point of onset of the unplanned intervention. RESULTS: The methods are illustrated using the example of the Australian Heroin Shortage of 2001, which provided an opportunity to study the health and social consequences of an abrupt change in heroin availability in an environment of widespread harm reduction measures. CONCLUSION: Application of these methods enables valuable insights about the consequences of unplanned and poorly identified interventions while minimising the risk of spurious results.

Tailoring magnetic field gradient design to magnet cryostat geometry

Eddy currents induced within a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) cryostat bore during pulsing of gradient coils can be applied constructively together with the gradient currents that generate them, to obtain good quality gradient uniformities within a specified imaging volume over time. This can be achieved by simultaneously optimizing the spatial distribution and temporal pre-emphasis of the gradient coil current, to account for the spatial and temporal variation of the secondary magnetic fields due to the induced eddy currents. This method allows the tailored design of gradient coil/magnet configurations and consequent engineering trade-offs. To compute the transient eddy currents within a realistic cryostat vessel, a low-frequency finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method using total-field scattered-field (TFSF) scheme has been performed and validated

A Nonstationary Model of Newborn EEG

The detection of seizure in the newborn is a critical aspect of neurological research. Current automatic detection techniques are difficult to assess due to the problems associated with acquiring and labelling newborn electroencephalogram (EEG) data. A realistic model for newborn EEG would allow confident development, assessment and comparison of these detection techniques. This paper presents a model for newborn EEG that accounts for its self-similar and non-stationary nature. The model consists of background and seizure sub-models. The newborn EEG background model is based on the short-time power spectrum with a time-varying power law. The relationship between the fractal dimension and the power law of a power spectrum is utilized for accurate estimation of the short-time power law exponent. The newborn EEG seizure model is based on a well-known time-frequency signal model. This model addresses all significant time-frequency characteristics of newborn EEG seizure which include; multiple components or harmonics, piecewise linear instantaneous frequency laws and harmonic amplitude modulation. Estimates of the parameters of both models are shown to be random and are modelled using the data from a total of 500 background epochs and 204 seizure epochs. The newborn EEG background and seizure models are validated against real newborn EEG data using the correlation coefficient. The results show that the output of the proposed models has a higher correlation with real newborn EEG than currently accepted models (a 10% and 38% improvement for background and seizure models, respectively).

Mice expressing the E7 oncogene of HPV16 in epithelium show central tolerance, and evidence of peripheral anergising tolerance, to E7-encoded cytotoxic T-lymphocyte epitopes

In order to derive mice which expressed both the E7 open reading frame transgene of human papillomavirus type 16 in skin and MHC class 1 restriction elements for several E7-encoded cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes, K14.HPV16E7 mice which express E7 in basal keratinocytes were crossed to the F1 generation with A2.1 K-b transgenic mice which express the MHC binding cleft domains of human HLA A*0201, and murine H-2(b). F1 mice (denoted K14E7xA2.1) expressed E7 in the thymus at least as early as 2-5 days before birth. Immunisation of FVBxA2.1 control mice (transgenic for HLA A*0201 and H-2(b) but not for E7), with two HLA A*0201-restricted epitopes of E7 and one H-2(b)-restricted CTL epitope of E7, gave strong primary CTL responses recognising epitope-pulsed or constitutively E7-expressing syngeneic target cells. In contrast, in immunised K14E7xA2.1 mice, the CTL responses to the H-2(b) epitope and one of the HLA A*0201 CTL epitopes were strongly down-regulated, and to the other HLA A*0201 epitope, completely abolished, as demonstrated by percentage specific killing by bulk splenocyte cultures in cyrotoxicity assays, and by CTL precursor frequency analysis, In thymus-transplanted bone marrow radiation chimeras in which the immune system of K14E7xA2.1 mice was replaced by a FVBxA2.1 immune system, specific immunisation did not result in reemergence of strong E7-directed CTL responses. In agreement with these in vitro findings, specific immunisation failed to significantly alter the course of E7-associated tumour development in K14E7xA2.1 mice. These data are consistent with a model of central deletional CTL tolerance to E7-encoded epitopes recognised in the context of two distinct MHC class 1 restriction elements, and with the possibility of peripheral T-cell anergy maintained by expression of E7 in the skin. (C) 1998 Academic Press.

Heart rate, blood lactate and kinematic data of elite colts (under-19) rugby union players during competition

Physiological and kinematic data were collected from elite under-19 rugby union players to provide a greater understanding of the physical demands of rugby union. Heart rate, blood lactate and time-motion analysis data were collected from 24 players (mean +/- s((x) over bar): body mass 88.7 +/- 9.9 kg, height 185 +/- 7 cm, age 18.4 +/- 0.5 years) during six competitive premiership fixtures. Six players were chosen at random from each of four groups: props and locks, back row forwards, inside backs, outside backs. Heart rate records were classified based on percent time spent in four zones (>95%, 85-95%, 75-84%, <75% HRmax). Blood lactate concentration was measured periodically throughout each match, with movements being classified as standing, walking, jogging, cruising, sprinting, utility, rucking/mauling and scrummaging. The heart rate data indicated that props and locks (58.4%) and back row forwards (56.2%) spent significantly more time in high exertion (85-95% HRmax) than inside backs (40.5%) and outside backs (33.9%) (P < 0.001). Inside backs (36.5%) and outside backs (38.5%) spent significantly more time in moderate exertion (75-84% HRmax) than props and locks (22.6%) and back row forwards (19.8%) (P < 0.05). Outside backs (20.1%) spent significantly more time in low exertion (< 75% HRmax) than props and locks (5.8%) and back row forwards (5.6%) (P < 0.05). Mean blood lactate concentration did not differ significantly between groups (range: 4.67 mmol.l(-1) for outside backs to 7.22 mmol.l(-1) for back row forwards; P < 0.05). The motion analysis data indicated that outside backs (5750 m) covered a significantly greater total distance than either props and locks or back row forwards (4400 and 4080 m, respectively; P < 0.05). Inside backs and outside backs covered significantly greater distances walking (1740 and 1780 m, respectively; P < 0.001), in utility movements (417 and 475 m, respectively; P < 0.001) and sprinting (208 and 340 m, respectively; P < 0.001) than either props and locks or back row forwards (walking: 1000 and 991 m; utility movements: 106 and 154 m; sprinting: 72 and 94 m, respectively). Outside backs covered a significantly greater distance sprinting than inside backs (208 and 340 m, respectively; P < 0.001). Forwards maintained a higher level of exertion than backs, due to more constant motion and a large involvement in static high-intensity activities. A mean blood lactate concentration of 4.8-7.2 mmol.l(-1) indicated a need for 'lactate tolerance' training to improve hydrogen ion buffering and facilitate removal following high-intensity efforts. Furthermore, the large distances (4.2-5.6 km) covered during, and intermittent nature of, match-play indicated a need for sound aerobic conditioning in all groups (particularly backs) to minimize fatigue and facilitate recovery between high-intensity efforts.

The preparation and readiness for voluntary movement: a high-field event-related fMRI study of the Bereitschafts-BOLD response

Activity within motor areas of the cortex begins to increase 1 to 2 s prior to voluntary self-initiated movement (termed the Bereitschaftspotential or readiness potential). There has been much speculation and debate over the precise source of this early premovement activity as it is important for understanding the roles of higher order motor areas in the preparation and readiness for voluntary movement. In this study, we use high-field (3-T) event-related fMRI with high temporal sampling (partial brain volumes every 250 ms) to specifically examine hemodynamic response time courses during the preparation, readiness, and execution of purely self-initiated voluntary movement. Five right-handed healthy volunteers performed a rapid sequential finger-to-thumb movement performed at self-determined times (12-15 trials). Functional images for each trial were temporally aligned and the averaged time series for each subject was iteratively correlated with a canonical hemodynamic response function progressively shifted in time. This analysis method identified areas of activation without constraining hemodynamic response timing. All subjects showed activation within frontal mesial areas, including supplementary motor area (SMA) and cingulate motor areas, as well as activation in left primary sensorimotor areas. The time courses of hemodynamic responses showed a great deal of variability in shape and timing between subjects; however, four subjects clearly showed earlier relative hemodynamic responses within SMA/cingulate motor areas compared with left primary motor areas. These results provide further evidence that the SMA and cingulate motor areas are major contributors to early stage premovement activity and play an important role in the preparation and readiness for voluntary movement. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tidal influence on behaviour of a coastal aquifer adjacent to a low-relief estuary

The tidal influence on groundwater hydrodynamics, salt-water intrusion and submarine groundwater discharge from coastal/estuarine aquifers is poorly quantified for systems with a mildly sloping beach, in contrast to the case where a vertical beach face is assumed. We investigated the effect of beach slope for a coastal aquifer adjacent to a low-relief estuary, where industrial waste was emplaced over the aquifer. The waste was suspected to discharge leachate towards the estuary. Field observations at various locations showed that tidally induced groundwater head fluctuations were skewed temporally. Frequency analysis suggested that the fluctuation amplitudes decreased exponentially and the phase-tags increased Linearly for the primary tidal signals as they propagated inland. Salinisation zones were observed in the bottom part of the estuary and near the beach surface. Flow and transport processes in a cross-section perpendicular to the estuary were simulated using SEAWAT-2000, which is capable of depicting density-dependent flow and multi-species transport. The simulations showed that the modelled water table fluctuations were in good agreement with the monitored data. Further simulations were conducted to gain insight into the effects of beach slope. In particular the limiting case of a vertical beach face was considered. The simulations showed that density difference and tidal forcing drive a more complex hydrodynamic pattern for the mildly sloping beach than the vertical beach, as well as a profound asymmetry in tidally induced water table fluctuations and enhanced salt-water intrusion. The simulation results also indicated that contaminant transport from the aquifer to the estuary was affected by the tide, where for the mildly sloping beach, the tide tended to intensify the vertical mass exchange in the vicinity of the shorelines, (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Insertion/deletion polymorphism of the angiotensin converting enzyme gene and loss of the insertion allele in aldosterone-producing adenoma

The genetic mechanisms responsible for the formation of adrenocortical adenomas which autonomously produce aldosterone are largely unknown, The adrenal renin-angiotensin system has been implicated in the pathophysiology of these tumours, Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) catalyses the generation of angiotensin II, and the insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism of the ACE gene regulates up to 50% of plasma and cellular ACE variability in humans. We therefore examined the genotypic and allelic frequency distributions of the ACE gene I/D polymorphism in 55 patients with aldosterone-producing adenoma, APA, (angiotensin-unresponsive APA n = 28, angiotensin-responsive APA n = 27), and 80 control subjects with no family history of hypertension, We also compared the ACE gene I/D polymorphism allelic pattern in matched tumour and peripheral blood DNA in the 55 patients with APA, The frequency of the D allele was 0.518 and 0.512 and the I allele was 0.482 and 0.488 in the APA and control subjects respectively, Genotypic and allelic frequency analysis found no significant differences between the groups, Examination of the matched tumour and peripheral blood DNA samples revealed the loss of the insertion allele in four of the 25 patients who were heterozygous for the ACE I/D genotype. The I/D polymorphism of the ACE gene does not appear to contribute to the biochemical and phenotypic characteristics of APA, however, the deletion of the insertion allele of the ACE gene I/D polymorphism in 16% of aldosterone-producing adenomas may represent the loss of a tumour suppressor gene/s or other genes on chromosome 17q which may contribute to tumorigenesis in APA.

Ethanol feeding enhances inflammatory cytokine expression in lipopolysaccharide-induced hepatitis

Elevated concentrations of plasma tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, interleukin (IL)-1 and IL-6 have been detected in patients with alcoholic hepatitis and have been implicated in the pathogenesis of hepatocyte necrosis. The present study used a rat model to conduct a detailed histological and biochemical examination of the expression of various pro-inflammatory cytokines and associated liver pathology in ethanol-potentiated lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced liver injury. Male Wistar rats were pair-fed either the control or ethanol-containing (36% of caloric intake as ethanol) form of the Lieber-DeCarli liquid diet for 6 weeks. Liver injury was induced by the i.v. injection of LPS (1 mu g/g bodyweight), with animals being killed at O, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h after injection. At the later time points, plasma transaminase and transpeptidase activities were significantly elevated in ethanol-fed LPS-treated rats compared with control-fed LPS-treated animals. At these times after LPS treatment, hepatocytes in ethanol-fed animals displayed fatty change and necrosis with an associated neutrophil polymorph infiltrate. Time course analysis revealed that plasma TNF-alpha (1-3 h post-LPS) and IL-6 (3 h post-LPS) bioactivity was significantly elevated in ethanol-fed compared with control-fed animals. No difference was seen in plasma IL-1 alpha concentration (maximal in both groups 6 h post-LPS). The expression of TNF-alpha, IL-1 alpha, IL-1 beta and IL-6 mRNA were elevated between 1 and 6 h post-LPS in the livers of both control and ethanol-fed rats. However, ethanol-fed LPS-treated animals exhibited significantly higher maximal expression of IL-1 and IL-6 mRNA. Comparison of the appearance of cytokine mRNA and plasma bioactivity indicated an effect of ethanol feeding on post-transcriptional processing and/or the kinetics of the circulating cytokines. Elevated levels of both hepatic cytokine mRNA expression and the preceding plasma cytokines are presumably a necessary prerequisite for hepatic injury seen in this model and, therefore, possibly for the damage seen in human alcoholics. Further studies using this model may lead to significant advances in our understanding of the pathogenic mechanisms of alcoholic liver disease in humans.