Swapping space for time and unfair tests of ecological models

Testing ecological models for management is an increasingly important part of the maturation of ecology as an applied science. Consequently, we need to work at applying fair tests of models with adequate data. We demonstrate that a recent test of a discrete time, stochastic model was biased towards falsifying the predictions. If the model was a perfect description of reality, the test falsified the predictions 84% of the time. We introduce an alternative testing procedure for stochastic models, and show that it falsifies the predictions only 5% of the time when the model is a perfect description of reality. The example is used as a point of departure to discuss some of the philosophical aspects of model testing.

Investigating the influence of achievement on self-concept using an intra-class design and a comparison of the PASS and SDQ-1 self-concept tests

Background. The formation and measurement of self-concept were the foci of this research. Aims. The study aimed to investigate the influence of achievement on academic self-concept and to compare the Perception of Ability Scale for Students (PASS, Boersma & Chapman, 1992) with the Self-Description Questionnaire-1 (SDQ-1, Marsh, 1988). Sample. The participants were 479 grade 5 (mean age 126.6 months) coeducational Australian students, located in 18 schools. Method. An intra-class research design was used to investigate the influence of frame-of-reference on self-concept development. Results. As students' academic scores rose above their class mean their self-concepts increased and as students' academic scores fell below their class mean their self-concepts decreased. Students' difference from class mean predicted their self-concept scores. This finding was consistently shown across the reading, spelling, and mathematics domains using test and teaching rating data. A comparison between the PASS and the SDQ-1 demonstrated concurrent validity across self-concept domains. Conclusion. The findings support the notions that the social environment is a significant agent that influences self-concept, and that teacher ratings and standardised tests of achievement and the PASS and the SDQ-1 are valid measures for self-concept research.

Estimating Income Inequality in China Using Grouped Data and the Generalized Beta Distribution

There are two main types of data sources of income distributions in China: household survey data and grouped data. Household survey data are typically available for isolated years and individual provinces. In comparison, aggregate or grouped data are typically available more frequently and usually have national coverage. In principle, grouped data allow investigation of the change of inequality over longer, continuous periods of time, and the identification of patterns of inequality across broader regions. Nevertheless, a major limitation of grouped data is that only mean (average) income and income shares of quintile or decile groups of the population are reported. Directly using grouped data reported in this format is equivalent to assuming that all individuals in a quintile or decile group have the same income. This potentially distorts the estimate of inequality within each region. The aim of this paper is to apply an improved econometric method designed to use grouped data to study income inequality in China. A generalized beta distribution is employed to model income inequality in China at various levels and periods of time. The generalized beta distribution is more general and flexible than the lognormal distribution that has been used in past research, and also relaxes the assumption of a uniform distribution of income within quintile and decile groups of populations. The paper studies the nature and extent of inequality in rural and urban China over the period 1978 to 2002. Income inequality in the whole of China is then modeled using a mixture of province-specific distributions. The estimated results are used to study the trends in national inequality, and to discuss the empirical findings in the light of economic reforms, regional policies, and globalization of the Chinese economy.

Should optional properties be used in conceptual modelling? A theory and three empirical tests

An important feature of some conceptual modelling grammars is the features they provide to allow database designers to show real-world things may or may not possess a particular attribute or relationship. In the entity-relationship model, for example, the fact that a thing may not possess an attribute can be represented by using a special symbol to indicate that the attribute is optional. Similarly, the fact that a thing may or may not be involved in a relationship can be represented by showing the minimum cardinality of the relationship as zero. Whether these practices should be followed, however, is a contentious issue. An alternative approach is to eliminate optional attributes and relationships from conceptual schema diagrams by using subtypes that have only mandatory attributes and relationships. In this paper, we first present a theory that led us to predict that optional attributes and relationships should be used in conceptual schema diagrams only when users of the diagrams require a surface-level understanding of the domain being represented by the diagrams. When users require a deep-level understanding, however, optional attributes and relationships should not be used because they undermine users' abilities to grasp important domain semantics. We describe three experiments which we then undertook to test our predictions. The results of the experiments support our predictions.

Determinants of hepato- and spleno-megaly in Hunan, China: cross-sectional survey data from areas endemic for schistosomiasis

In order to understand the determinants of schistosome-related hepato- and spleno-megaly better, 14 002 subjects aged 3-60 years (59% male; mean age =32 years) were randomly selected from 43 villages, all in Hunan province, China, where schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma japonicum is endemic. The abdomen of each subject was examined along the mid-sternal (MSL) and mid-clavicular lines, for evidence of current hepato- and/or spleno-megaly, and a questionnaire was used to collect information on the medical history of each individual. Current infections with S. japonicum were detected by stool examination. Almost all (99.8%) of the subjects were ethnically Han by descent and most (77%) were engaged in farming. Although schistosomiasis appeared common (42% of the subjects claiming to have had the disease), only 45% of the subjects said they had received anti-schistosomiasis drugs. Overall, 1982 (14%) of the subjects had S. japonicum infections (as revealed by miracidium-hatching tests and/or Katon Katz smears) when examined and 22% had palpable hepatomegaly (i.e. enlargement of at least 3 cm along the MSL), although only 2.5% had any form of detectable splenomegaly (i.e. a Hackett's grade of at least 1). Multiple logistic regression revealed that male subjects, fishermen, farmers, subjects aged greater than or equal to 25 years, subjects with a history of schistosomiasis, and subjects who had had bloody stools in the previous 2 weeks were all at relatively high risk of hepato- and/or spleno-megaly. In areas moderately endemic for Schistosoma japonicum, occupational exposure and disease history appear to be good predictors of current disease status among older residents. These results reconfirm those reported earlier in the same region.

Diagnostic performance of Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody tests for Idiopathic Vasculitides: Metaanalysis with a focus on antimyeloperoxidase antibodies

Objective. The diagnostic value of tests for antimyeloperoxidase antibodies (anti-MPO) for systemic vasculitis is less established than that for cytoplasmic antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (cANCA)/antiproteinase 3 antibodies (anti-PR3). Controversy exists regarding the optimal utilization of indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) ANCA testing versus antigen-specific ANCA testing. To summarize the pertinent data, we conducted a metaanalysis examining the diagnostic value of ANCA testing systems that include assays for anti-MPO. Methods. We performed a structured Medline search and reference list review. Target articles in the search strategy were those reporting the diagnostic value of immunoassays for anti-MPO for the spectrum of systemic necrotizing vasculitides that includes Wegener's granulomatosis, microscopic polyangiitis, the Churg-Strauss syndrome, and isolated pauci-immune necrotizing or crescentic glomerulonephritis, regardless of other types of ANCA tests. Inclusion criteria required specification of a consecutive or random patient selection method and the use of acceptable criteria for the diagnosis of vasculitis exclusive of ANCA test results. Weighted pooled summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated for anti-MPO alone, anti-MPO + perinuclear ANCA (pANCA), and anti-MPO/pANCA + anti-PR3/cANCA. Results. Of 457 articles reviewed, only 7 met the selection criteria. Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity (against disease controls only) of assays for anti-MPO for the diagnosis of systemic necrotizing vasculitides were 37.1% (confidence interval 26.6% to 47.6%) and 96.3% (CI 94.1% to 98.5%), respectively. When the pANCA pattern by IIF was combined with anti-MPO testing, the specificity improved to 99.4%, with a lower sensitivity, 31.5%. The combined ANCA testing system (anti-PR3/cANCA + anti-MPO/pANCA) increased the sensitivity to 85.5% with a specificity of 98.6%. Conclusion. These results suggest that while anti-MPO is relatively specific for the diagnosis of systemic vasculitis, the combination system of immunoassays for anti-MPO and IIF for pANCA is highly specific and both tests should be used together given the high diagnostic precision required for these conditions. Because patients with ANCA associated vasculitis have either anti-MPO with pANCA or anti-PR3 with cANCA, and rarely both, a combined ANCA testing system including anti-PR3/cANCA and anti-MPO/pANCA is recommended to optimize the diagnostic performance of ANCA testing. (J Rheumatol 2001;28:1584-90)

Noninvasive tests of vascular function and structure: Why and how to perform them

Background Early atherosclerosis involves the endothelium of many arteries. Information about peripheral arterial anatomy and function derived from vascular imaging studies such as brachial artery reactivity (BAR) and carotid intima media thickness (IMT) may be pertinent to the coronary circulation. The prevention and early treatment of atherosclerosis is gaining more attention, and these tests might be used as indications or perhaps guides to the effectiveness of therapy, but their application in clinical practice has been limited. This review seeks to define the anatomy and pathophysiology underlying these investigations, their methodology, the significance of their Findings, and the issues that must be resolved before their application. Methods The literature on BAR and IMT is extensively reviewed, especially in relation to clinical use. Results Abnormal flow-mediated dilation is present in atherosclerotic vessels, is associated with cardiovascular risk factors, and may be a marker of preclinical disease. Treatment of known atherosclerotic risk Factors has been shown to improve flow-mediated dilation, and some data suggest that vascular responsiveness is related to outcome. Carotid IMT is associated with cardiovascular risk factors, and increased levels can predict myocardial infarction and stroke. Aggressive risk factor management can decrease IMT. Conclusions BAR and IMT ate functional and structural markers of the atherosclerotic process. The clinical use of BAR has been limited by varying reproducibility and the influence by exogenous factors, but IMT exhibits less variability. A desirable next step in the development of BAR and IMT as useful clinical tools would be to show an association of improvement in response to treatment with improvement in prognosis.

The management of rice grown on raised beds with continuous furrow irrigation

A field experiment compared two rice (Oryza sativa L.) cropping systems: paddy or raised beds with continuous furrow irrigation; and trialled four cultivars: Starbonnet, Lemont, Amaroo and Ceysvoni, and one test line YRL39; that may vary in adaptation to growth on raised beds. The grain yield of rice ranged from 740 to 1250 g/m(2) and was slightly greater in paddy than on raised beds. Although there were early growth responses to fertilizer nitrogen on raised beds, the crop nitrogen content at maturity mostly exceeded 20 g/m(2) in both systems, so nitrogen was unlikely to have limited yield. Ceysvoni yielded best in both systems, a result of good post-anthesis growth and larger grain size, although its whole-grain mill-out percentage was poor relative to the other cultivars. Starbonnet and Lemont yielded poorly on raised beds, associated with too few tillers and too much leaf area. When grown on raised beds all cultivars experienced a delay in anthesis resulting in more tillers, leaf area and dry weight at anthesis, and probably a greater yield potential. The growth of rice after anthesis, however, was similar on raised beds and in paddy, so reductions in harvest index and grain size on raised beds were recorded. The data indicated that water supply was not a major limitation to rice growth on raised beds, but slower crop development was an issue that would affect the use of raised beds in a cropping system, especially in rice-growing areas where temperatures are too cool for optimal crop development. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Quality Assurance Through a Continuous Curriculum Review (CCR) Strategy: Reflections on a Pilot Project

Institutional research can be defined as "the activity in which the research effort of an academic institution is directed at the solution of its own problems and to the enhancement of its own performance" (Woodward, 1993, p. 113). This paper describes and reflects on an attempt at the University of Queensland to address the need for course quality appraisal for improvement. The strategy, Continuous Curriculum Review (CCR) is simply an attempt to trial and promote regular comprehensive data collection for developing 'snapshot' views of whole curricula so that decisions about what to change and what to change first can be made in an empirically defensible and timely manner. The strategy and reporting protocols that were developed are described, and the costs and benefits of engaging in this kind of data gathering exercise for quality assurance and quality enhancement purposes are discussed.

Comparison of two population pharmacokinetic programs, NONMEM and P-PHARM, for tacrolimus

Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

Levene tests of homogeneity of variance for general block and treatment designs

This article develops a weighted least squares version of Levene's test of homogeneity of variance for a general design, available both for univariate and multivariate situations. When the design is balanced, the univariate and two common multivariate test statistics turn out to be proportional to the corresponding ordinary least squares test statistics obtained from an analysis of variance of the absolute values of the standardized mean-based residuals from the original analysis of the data. The constant of proportionality is simply a design-dependent multiplier (which does not necessarily tend to unity). Explicit results are presented for randomized block and Latin square designs and are illustrated for factorial treatment designs and split-plot experiments. The distribution of the univariate test statistic is close to a standard F-distribution, although it can be slightly underdispersed. For a complex design, the test assesses homogeneity of variance across blocks, treatments, or treatment factors and offers an objective interpretation of residual plot.

Characterisation of chronic lateral epicondylalgia using the McGill pain questionnaire, visual analog scales, and quantitative sensory tests

Aims: To characterise chronic lateral epicondylalgia using the McGill Pain Questionnaire, Visual Analog Scales for pain and function, and Quantitative Sensory Tests; and to examine the relationship between these tests in a population with chronic lateral epicondylalgia. Method: Fifty-six patients (29 female, 27 male) diagnosed with unilateral lateral epicondylalgia of 18.7 months (mean) duration (range 1-300), with a mean age of 50.7 years (range 27-73) participated in this study. Each participant underwent assessment with the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ), Visual Analog Scales (VAS) for pain and function. and Quantitative Sensory Tests (QST) including thermal and pressure pain thresholds, pain free grip strength, and neuromeningeal tissue testing via the upper limb tension test 2b (ULTT 2b). Results: Moderate correlation (r = .338-.514, p = .000-.013) was found between all indices of the MPQ and VAS for pain experienced in the previous 24 hours and week. Thermal pain threshold was found to be significantly higher in males. A significant poor to moderate correlation was found between the Pain Rating Index (PRI) in the sensory category of the MPQ and ULTT2b scores (r = .353, p = .038). There was no other significant correlation between MPQ and QST data. Pain free grip strength was poorly yet significantly correlated with duration of pathology (r = 318, p = .038). Conclusion: The findings of this study are in agreement with others (Melzack and Katz, 1994) regarding the multidimensional nature of pain, in a condition conventionally conceived as a musculoskeletal pain state. The findings also suggest that utilisation of only one pain measurement tool is unlikely to provide a thorough clinical picture of pain experienced with chronic lateral epicondylalgia.

Predicting the HER2 status of breast cancer from basic histopathology data: an analysis of 1500 breast cancers as part of the HER2000 International Study

The tests that are currently available for the measurement of overexpression of the human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2) in breast cancer have shown considerable problems in accuracy and interlaboratory reproducibility. Although these problems are partly alleviated by the use of validated, standardised 'kits', there may be considerable cost involved in their use. Prior to testing it may therefore be an advantage to be able to predict from basic pathology data whether a cancer is likely to overexpress HER2. In this study, we have correlated pathology features of cancers with the frequency of HER2 overexpression assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) using HercepTest (Dako). In addition, fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) has been used to re-test the equivocal cancers and interobserver variation in assessing HER2 overexpression has been examined by a slide circulation scheme. Of the 1536 cancers, 1144 (74.5%) did not overexpress HER2. Unequivocal overexpression (3+ by IHC) was seen in 186 cancers (12%) and an equivocal result (2+ by IHC) was seen in 206 cancers (13%). Of the 156 IHC 3+ cancers for which complete data was available, 149 (95.5%) were ductal NST and 152 (97%) were histological grade 2 or 3. Only 1 of 124 infiltrating lobular carcinomas (0.8%) showed HER2 overexpression. None of the 49 'special types' of carcinoma showed HER2 overexpression. Re-testing by FISH of a proportion of the IHC 2+ cancers showed that only 25 (23%) of those assessable exhibited HER2 gene amplification, but 46 of the 47 IHC 3+ cancers (98%) were confirmed as showing gene amplification. Circulating slides for the assessment of HER2 score showed a moderate level of agreement between pathologists (kappa 0.4). As a result of this study we would advocate consideration of a triage approach to HER-2 testing. Infiltrating lobular and special types of carcinoma may not need to be routinely tested at presentation nor may grade 1 NST carcinomas in which only 1.4% have been shown to overexpress HER2. Testing of these carcinomas may be performed when HER2 status is required to assist in therapeutic or other clinical/prognostic decision-making. The highest yield of HER2 overexpressing carcinomas is seen in the grade 3 NST subgroup in which 24% are positive by IHC. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003