Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structure optimization combining soft-core interaction functions, the diffusion equation method, and molecular dynamics

Smoothing the potential energy surface for structure optimization is a general and commonly applied strategy. We propose a combination of soft-core potential energy functions and a variation of the diffusion equation method to smooth potential energy surfaces, which is applicable to complex systems such as protein structures; The performance of the method was demonstrated by comparison with simulated annealing using the refinement of the undecapeptide Cyclosporin A as a test case. Simulations were repeated many times using different initial conditions and structures since the methods are heuristic and results are only meaningful in a statistical sense.

A semi-empirical approach to optimise the quantity of drying aids required to spray dry sugar-rich foods

A semi-empirical linear equation has been developed to optimise the amount of maltodextrin additive (DE 6) required to successfully spray dry a sugar-rich product on the basis of its composition. Based on spray drying experiments, drying index values for individual sugars (sucrose, glucose, frutose) and citric acid were determined, and us;ng these index values an equation for model mixtures of these components was established. This equation has been tested with two sugar-rich natural products, pineapple juice and honey. The relationship was found to be valid for these products.

Rural and urban attitudes to the conservation of Asian elephants in Sri Lanka: Empirical evidence

There has been little study of economic and general attitudes towards the conservation of the Asian elephant. This paper reports and analyses results from surveys conducted in Sri Lanka of attitudes of urban dwellers and farmers towards nature conservation in general and the elephant conservation in particular. The analyses are based on urban and a rural sample. Contingent valuation techniques are used as survey instruments. Multivariate logit regression analysis is used to analyze the respondents’ attitudes towards conservation of elephants. It is found that, although some variations occurred between the samples, the majority of the respondents (both rural and urban) have positive attitudes towards nature conservation in general. However, marked differences in attitudes toward elephant conservation are evident between these two samples: the majority of urban respondents were in favour of elephant conservation; rural respondents expressed a mixture of positive and negative attitudes. Overall, considerable unrecorded and as yet unutilised economic support for conservation of wild elephants exists in Sri Lanka.

Feasibility of an evidence-based literature search service for general practitioners

Objective: To test the feasibility of an evidence-based clinical literature search service to help answer general practitioners' (GPs') clinical questions. Design: Two search services supplied GPs who submitted questions with the best available empirical evidence to answer these questions. The GPs provided feedback on the value of the service, and concordance of answers from the two search services was assessed. Setting: Two literature search services (Queensland and Victoria), operating for nine months from February 1999. Main outcome measures: Use of the service; time taken to locate answers; availability of evidence; value of the service to GPs; and consistency of answers from the two services. Results: 58 GPs asked 160 questions (29 asked one, 11 asked five or more). The questions concerned treatment (65%), aetiology (17%), prognosis (13%), and diagnosis (5%). Answering a question took a mean of 3 hours 32 minutes of personnel time (95% Cl, 2.67-3.97); nine questions took longer than 10 hours each to answer, the longest taking 23 hours 30 minutes. Evidence of suitable quality to provide a sound answer was available for 126 (79%) questions. Feedback data for 84 (53%) questions, provided by 42 GPs, showed that they appreciated the service, and asking the questions changed clinical care. There were many minor differences between the answers from the two centres, and substantial differences in the evidence found for 4/14 questions. However, conclusions reached were largely similar, with no or only minor differences for all questions. Conclusions: It is feasible to provide a literature search service, but further assessment is needed to establish its cost effectiveness.

Determinants of general practitioner use among women in Australia

This study investigates the use of general practitioner services by women in Australia. Although there is a universal health insurance system (Medicare) in Australia, there are variations in access to services and out of pocket costs for services. Survey data from 2350 mid-age (45-50 years) and 2102 older (70-75 years) women participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were linked with Medicare data to provide a range of individual and contextual variables hypothesised to explain general practitioner use. Structural equation modelling showed that physical health was the most powerful explanatory factor of general practitioner use. However, after adjusting for self-reported health, out of pocket cost per consultation was inversely associated with use of services. The out of pocket cost was generally lower for women with low socioeconomic status but cost was also directly related to geographical remoteness. Women living in more remote areas had higher out of pocket costs and poorer access to services. Women who reported better access to care were more likely to be satisfied with their most recent general practice consultation and less likely to be sceptical of the value of medical care. These results show the need for health policies that improve the equitable use of general practitioner services in Australia. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new wavelet-based method for the solution of the population balance equation

A new wavelet-based method for solving population balance equations with simultaneous nucleation, growth and agglomeration is proposed, which uses wavelets to express the functions. The technique is very general, powerful and overcomes the crucial problems of numerical diffusion and stability that often characterize previous techniques in this area. It is also applicable to an arbitrary grid to control resolution and computational efficiency. The proposed technique has been tested for pure agglomeration, simultaneous nucleation and growth, and simultaneous growth and agglomeration. In all cases, the predicted and analytical particle size distributions are in excellent agreement. The presence of moving sharp fronts can be addressed without the prior investigation of the characteristics of the processes. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

The Dubinin-Radushkevich equation and the underlying microscopic adsorption description

The Dubinin-Radushkevich (DR) equation is widely used for description of adsorption in microporous materials, especially those of a carbonaceous origin. The equation has a semi-empirical origin and is based on the assumptions of a change in the potential energy between the gas and adsorbed phases and a characteristic energy of a given solid. This equation yields a macroscopic behaviour of adsorption loading for a given pressure. In this paper, we apply a theory developed in our group to investigate the underlying mechanism of adsorption as an alternative to the macroscopic description using the DR equation. Using this approach, we are able to establish a detailed picture of the adsorption in the whole range of the micropore system. This is different from the DR equation, which provides an overall description of the process. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical aspects of gestational trophoblastic disease: A review based partly on 25-year experience of a statewide registry

Background: Gestational trophoblastic disease is a fascinating group of pregnancy disorders characterised by abnormal proliferation of trophoblast, ranging from benign to malignant. Because the disease is uncommon, there is a need to formulate management with the assistance of collective information. Methodology: A review of available information from English written literature was undertaken especially data reported by registries around the world (Charing Cross Hospital in England, the North-western University and the New England area in the USA as well as our own experience in Queensland, Australia). Where possible, collated data from relevant studies were analysed to answer some of the questions posed in clinical practice, with reference to metastatic disease to liver and brain, twinning of molar gestation and coexisting fetus, and placental-site tumour. Results: We found that molar gestation can be classified according to its clinical presentation which influences the time taken to reach human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) 'negativity' and the risk of persisting disease. Categorisation of risk is the basis for choice of chemotherapy to achieve good outcomes. Metastases to liver and brain remain problems in management; the development of 'new' metastases during chemotherapy is a very poor prognostic factor. In the variant of twinning with molar gestation and coexisting fetus, it is important to elucidate the fetal karyotype in planning management: a 69XXX fetus is not salvageable but a normal 46XX or 46XY fetus faces the prospect of early preterm delivery. The placental-site tumour is very rare; localised disease is curable by surgery; chemotherapy is less effective in disseminated disease. From collated worldwide data, the recurrence rate after one mole is 1.3% and after two or more is 20%. Reproductive outcome in subsequent pregnancies, even after multidrug chemotherapy, is not different from the general population. Because of the increased risk long-term of second tumours after multidrug chemotherapy a closer surveillance of these patients is necessary Conclusion: In general, the disease in its persisting or malignant form is 'a cancer model par excellence' because of an identifiable precursor condition, a reliable HCG marker, and sensitivity of the disease to cytotoxic drugs. With current management, retention of fertility is possible and normal reproductive outcome assured.

Hormone replacement therapy and everyday memory in mid-aged New Zealand women

While empirical research to date has generally supported positive effects of estrogen on verbal memory performance in women, the literature examining specific effects of Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) on cognitive functioning in mid-life women is more equivocal. The Rivermead Behavioural Memory Test-Extended Version (RBMT-E), a measure of everyday memory functioning in adults within an average range of cognitive functioning, was administered to a sample of 104 New Zealand women aged 40 to 60 years who had self-selected to either use or not use HRT (53 HRT users and 51 non-users). Self-report. measures of mood, stress, general health and menopausal symptoms were also administered. These variables, along with age and education level, were used in analyses of group differences on the everyday memory measures. Results showed significant differences between the groups for three sub-tests of the RBMT-E:'Story Immediate', 'Story Delayed', and 'Message Delayed'. Women who use HRT scored higher on these subtests than those who do not use HRT. After calculation of a total profile score (adjusting for age and IQ), HRT users score higher than HRT non-users on the RBMT-E overall measure of Everyday Memory. These pilot results suggest that HRT use in this sample-is related to enhanced verbal memory in everyday memory tasks and that the RBMT-E may be a useful tool for further work in this area of research.

Comparison of rural and urban attitudes to the conservation of Asian elephants in Sri Lanka: empirical evidence

There has been little study of economic and general attitudes towards the conservation of the Asian elephant. This paper reports and analyses results from surveys conducted in Sri Lanka of attitudes of urban dwellers and farmers towards nature conservation in general and the elephant conservation in particular. The analyses are based on urban and a rural sample. Contingent valuation techniques are used as survey instruments. Multivariate logit regression analysis is used to analyse the respondents' attitudes towards conservation of elephants. It is found that, although some variations occurred between the samples, the majority of the respondents (both rural and urban) have positive attitudes towards nature conservation in general. However, marked differences in attitudes toward elephant conservation are evident between these two samples: the majority of urban respondents were in favour of elephant conservation; rural respondents expressed a mixture of positive and negative attitudes. Overall, considerable unrecorded and as yet unutilised economic support for conservation of wild elephants exists in Sri Lanka. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two empirical hydrocyclone models revisited

There has been an abundance of literature on the modelling of hydrocyclones over the past 30 years. However, in the comminution area at least, the more popular commercially available packages (e.g. JKSimMet, Limn, MODSIM) use the models developed by Nageswararao and Plitt in the 1970s, either as published at that time, or with minor modification. With the benefit of 30 years of hindsight, this paper discusses the assumptions and approximations used in developing these models. Differences in model structure and the choice of dependent and independent variables are also considered. Redundancies are highlighted and an assessment made of the general applicability of each of the models, their limitations and the sources of error in their model predictions. This paper provides the latest version of the Nageswararao model based on the above analysis, in a form that can readily be implemented in any suitable programming language, or within a spreadsheet. The Plitt model is also presented in similar form. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experience as a moderator of the media equation: the impact of flattery and praise

This study extends previous media equation research, which showed that the effects of flattery from a computer can produce the same general effects as flattery from humans. Specifically, the study explored the potential moderating effect of experience on the impact of flattery from a computer. One hundred and fifty-eight students from the University of Queensland voluntarily participated in the study. Participants interacted with a computer and were exposed to one of three kinds of feedback: praise (sincere praise), flattery (insincere praise), or control (generic feedback). Questionnaire measures assessing participants' affective state. attitudes and opinions were taken. Participants of high experience, but not low experience, displayed a media equation pattern of results, reacting to flattery from a computer in a manner congruent with peoples' reactions to flattery from other humans. High experience participants tended to believe that the computer spoke the truth, experienced more positive affect as a result of flattery, and judged the computer's performance more favourably. These findings are interpreted in light of previous research and the implications for software design in fields such as entertainment and education are considered. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The individual within the group: Balancing the need to belong with the need to be different

Many theorists have wrestled with the notion of how people balance their need to be included in social groups with their need to be different and distinctive. This question is particularly salient to researchers from the social identify perspective, who have traditionally viewed individual differentiation within groups as being inimical to group identification. In this article we present a number of strategies that people can use to balance their need to belong and their need to be different, without violating social identity principles. First, drawing from optimal distinctiveness theory, we discuss 4 ways in which the need for belonging and the need to be different can be resolved by maximizing group distinctiveness. We then discuss 4 ways in which it is possible to achieve individual differentiation within a group at the same time demonstrating group identification. These strategies are discussed and integrated with reference to recent empirical research and to the social identity perspective.

Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.