Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

On the statistical analysis of the GS-NS0 cell proteome: Imputation, clustering and variability testing

We have undertaken two-dimensional gel electrophoresis proteomic profiling on a series of cell lines with different recombinant antibody production rates. Due to the nature of gel-based experiments not all protein spots are detected across all samples in an experiment, and hence datasets are invariably incomplete. New approaches are therefore required for the analysis of such graduated datasets. We approached this problem in two ways. Firstly, we applied a missing value imputation technique to calculate missing data points. Secondly, we combined a singular value decomposition based hierarchical clustering with the expression variability test to identify protein spots whose expression correlates with increased antibody production. The results have shown that while imputation of missing data was a useful method to improve the statistical analysis of such data sets, this was of limited use in differentiating between the samples investigated, and highlighted a small number of candidate proteins for further investigation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the niche apportionment hypothesis with parasite communities: is random assortment always the rule?

Niche apportionment models have only been applied once to parasite communities. Only the random assortment model (RA), which indicates that species abundances are independent from each other and that interspecific competition is unimportant, provided a good fit to 3 out of 6 parasite communities investigated. The generality of this result needs to be validated, however. In this study we apply 5 niche apportionment models to the parasite communities of 14 fish species from the Great Barrier Reef. We determined which model fitted the data when using either numerical abundance or biomass as an estimate of parasite abundance, and whether the fit of niche apportionment models depends on how the parasite community is defined (e.g. ecto, endoparasites or all parasites considered together). The RA model provided a good fit for the whole community of parasites in 7 fish species when using biovolume (as a surrogate of biomass) as a measure of species abundance. The RA model also fitted observed data when ecto- and endoparasites were considered separately, using abundance or biovolume, but less frequently. Variation in fish sizes among species was not associated with the probability of a model fitting the data. Total numerical abundance and biovolume of parasites were not related across host species, suggesting that they capture different aspects of abundance. Biovolume is not only a better measurement to use with niche-orientated models, it should also be the preferred descriptor to analyse parasite community structure in other contexts. Most of the biological assumptions behind the RA model, i.e. randomness in apportioning niche space, lack of interspecific competition, independence of abundance among different species, and species with variable niches in changeable environments, are in accordance with some previous findings on parasite communities. Thus, parasite communities may generally be unsaturated with species, with empty niches, and interspecific interactions may generally be unimportant in determining parasite community structure.

Testing the protracted lexical restructuring hypothesis: The effects of position and acoustic-phonetic clarity on sensitivity to mispronunciations in children and adults

Although developmental increases in the size of the position effect within a mispronunciation detection task have been interpreted as consistent with a view of the lexical restructuring process as protracted, the position effect itself might not be reliable. The current research examined the effects of position and clarity of acoustic-phonetic information on sensitivity to mispronounced onsets in 5- and 6-year-olds and adults. Both children and adults showed a position effect only when mispronunciations also differed in the amount of relevant acoustic-phonetic information. Adults' sensitivity to mispronounced second-syllable onsets also reflected the availability of acoustic-phonetic information. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the lexical restructuring hypothesis. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weathering of hydrocarbons in mangrove sediments: testing the effects of using dispersants to treat oil spills

This field study was a combined chemical and biological investigation of the relative effects of using dispersants to treat oil spills impacting mangrove habitats. The aim of the chemistry was to determine whether dispersant affected the short- or long-term composition of a medium range crude oil (Gippsland) stranded in a tropical mangrove environment in Queensland, Australia. Sediment cores from three replicate plots of each treatment (oil only and oil plus dispersant) were analyzed for total hydrocarbons and for individual molecular markers (alkanes, aromatics, triterpanes, and steranes). Sediments were collected at 2 days, then 1, 7, 13 and 22 months post-spill. Over this time, oil in the six treated plots decreased exponentially from 36.6 +/- 16.5 to 1.2 +/- 0.8 mg/g dry wt. There was no statistical difference in initial oil concentrations, penetration of oil to depth, or in the rates of oil dissipation between oiled or dispersed oil plots. At 13 months, alkanes were >50% degraded, aromatics were similar to 30% degraded based upon ratios of labile to resistant markers. However, there was no change in the triterpane or sterane biomarker signatures of the retained oil. This is of general forensic interest for pollution events. The predominant removal processes were evaporation (less than or equal to 27%) and dissolution (greater than or equal to 56%), with a lag-phase of 1 month before the start of significant microbial degradation (less than or equal to 7%). The most resistant fraction of the oil that remained after 7 months (the higher molecular weight hydrocarbons) correlated with the initial total organic carbon content of the soil. Removal rate in the Queensland mangroves was significantly faster than that observed in the Caribbean and was related to tidal flushing. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interspecific variation in plumage colour among birds: species recognition or light environment?

The traditional explanation for interspecific plumage colour variation in birds is that colour differences between species are adaptations to minimize the risk of hybridization. Under this explanation, colour differences between closely related species of birds represent reproductive character displacement. An alternative explanation is that interspecific variation in plumage colour is an adaptive response to variation in light environments across habitats. Under this explanation, differences in colour between closely related species are a product of selection on signal efficiency. We use a comparative approach to examine these two hypotheses, testing the effects of sympatry and habitat use, respectively, on divergence in male plumage colour. Contrary to the prediction of the Species Isolation Hypothesis, we find no evidence that sympatric pairs of species are consistently more divergent in coloration than are allopatric pairs of species. However, in agreement with the Light Environment Hypothesis, we find significant associations between plumage coloration and habitat use. All of these results remain qualitatively unchanged irrespective of the statistical methodology used to compare reflectance spectra, the body regions used in the analyses, or the exclusion of areas of plumage not used in sexual displays. Our results suggest that, in general, interspecific variation in plumage colour among birds is more strongly influenced by the signalling environment than by the risk of hybridization.

Testing landscape metrics as indicators of habitat loss and fragmentation in continuous eucalypt forests (Queensland, Australia)

Landscape metrics are widely applied in landscape ecology to quantify landscape structure. However, many are poorly tested and require rigorous validation if they are to serve as reliable indicators of habitat loss and fragmentation, such as Montreal Process Indicator 1.1e. We apply a landscape ecology theory, supported by exploratory and confirmatory statistical techniques, to empirically test landscape metrics for reporting Montreal Process Indicator 1.1e in continuous dry eucalypt forests of sub-tropical Queensland, Australia. Target biota examined included: the Yellow-bellied Glider (Petaurus australis); the diversity of nectar and sap feeding glider species including P. australis, the Sugar Glider P. breviceps, the Squirrel Glider P. norfolcensis, and the Feathertail Glider Acrobates pygmaeus; six diurnal forest birds species; total diurnal bird species diversity; and the density of nectar-feeding diurnal bird species. Two scales of influence were considered: the stand-scale (2 ha), and a series of radial landscape extents (500 m - 2 km; 78 - 1250 ha) surrounding each fauna transect. For all biota, stand-scale structural and compositional attributes were found to be more influential than landscape metrics. For the Yellow-bellied Glider, the proportion of trace habitats with a residual element of old spotted-gum/ironbark eucalypt trees was a significant landscape metric at the 2 km landscape extent. This is a measure of habitat loss rather than habitat fragmentation. For the diversity of nectar and sap feeding glider species, the proportion of trace habitats with a high coefficient of variation in patch size at the 750 m extent was a significant landscape metric. None of the landscape metrics tested was important for diurnal forest birds. We conclude that no single landscape metric adequately captures the response of the region's forest biota per se. This poses a major challenge to regional reporting of Montreal Process Indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types.

Testing the link between the latitudinal gradient in species richness and rates of molecular evolution

Numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain latitudinal gradients in species richness, but all are subject to ongoing debate. Here we examine Rohde's (1978, 1992) hypothesis, which proposes that climatic conditions at low latitudes lead to elevated rates of speciation. This hypothesis predicts that rates of molecular evolution should increase towards lower latitudes, but this prediction has never been tested. We discuss potential links between rates of molecular evolution and latitudinal diversity gradients, and present the first test of latitudinal variation in rates of molecular evolution. Using 45 phylogenetically independent, latitudinally separated pairs of bird species and higher taxa, we compare rates of evolution of two mitochondrial genes and DNA-DNA hybridization distances. We find no support for an effect of latitude on rate of molecular evolution. This result casts doubt on the generality of a key component of Rohde's hypothesis linking climate and speciation.

Adaptation to being at-risk for Huntington's disease and the availability of genetic testing: Application of a stress and coping model

This study examined the utility of a stress/coping model in explaining adaptation in two groups of people at-risk for Huntington's Disease (HD): those who have not approached genetic testing services (non-testees) and those who have engaged a testing service (testees). The aims were (1) to compare testees and non-testees on stress/coping variables, (2) to examine relations between adjustment and the stress/coping predictors in the two groups, and (3) to examine relations between the stress/coping variables and testees' satisfaction with their first counselling session. Participants were 44 testees and 40 non-testees who completed questionnaires which measured the stress/coping variables: adjustment (global distress, depression, health anxiety, social and dyadic adjustment), genetic testing concerns, testing context (HD contact, experience, knowledge), appraisal (control, threat, self-efficacy), coping strategies (avoidance, self-blame, wishful thinking, seeking support, problem solving), social support and locus of control. Testees also completed a genetic counselling session satisfaction scale. As expected, non-testees reported lower self-efficacy and control appraisals, higher threat and passive avoidant coping than testees. Overall, results supported the hypothesis that within each group poorer adjustment would be related to higher genetic testing concerns, contact with HD, threat appraisals, passive avoidant coping and external locus of control, and lower levels of positive experiences with HD, social support, internal locus of control, self-efficacy, control appraisals, problem solving, emotional approach and seeking social support coping. Session satisfaction scores were positively correlated with dyadic adjustment, problem solving and positive experience with HD, and inversely related to testing concerns, and threat and control appraisals. Findings support the utility of the stress/coping model in explaining adaptation in people who have decided not to seek genetic testing for HD and those who have decided to engage a genetic testing service.

Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Is cannabis a gateway drug? Testing hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and the use of other illicit drugs

We outline and evaluate competing explanations of three relationships that have consistently been found between cannabis use and the use of other illicit drugs, namely, ( 1) that cannabis use typically precedes the use of other illicit drugs; and that ( 2) the earlier cannabis is used, and ( 3) the more regularly it is used, the more likely a young person is to use other illicit drugs. We consider three major competing explanations of these patterns: ( 1) that the relationship is due to the fact that there is a shared illicit market for cannabis and other drugs which makes it more likely that other illicit drugs will be used if cannabis is used; ( 2) that they are explained by the characteristics of those who use cannabis; and ( 3) that they reflect a causal relationship in which the pharmacological effects of cannabis on brain function increase the likelihood of using other illicit drugs. These explanations are evaluated in the light of evidence from longitudinal epidemiological studies, simulation studies, discordant twin studies and animal studies. The available evidence indicates that the association reflects in part but is not wholly explained by: ( 1) the selective recruitment to heavy cannabis use of persons with pre-existing traits ( that may be in part genetic) that predispose to the use of a variety of different drugs; ( 2) the affiliation of cannabis users with drug using peers in settings that provide more opportunities to use other illicit drugs at an earlier age; ( 3) supported by socialisation into an illicit drug subculture with favourable attitudes towards the use of other illicit drugs. Animal studies have raised the possibility that regular cannabis use may have pharmacological effects on brain function that increase the likelihood of using other drugs. We conclude with suggestions for the type of research studies that will enable a decision to be made about the relative contributions that social context, individual characteristics, and drug effects make to the relationship between cannabis use and the use of other drugs.

Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.