Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

Single-subject research designs and data analyses for assessing elite athletes' conditioning

Research in conditioning (all the processes of preparation for competition) has used group research designs, where multiple athletes are observed at one or more points in time. However, empirical reports of large inter-individual differences in response to conditioning regimens suggest that applied conditioning research would greatly benefit from single-subject research designs. Single-subject research designs allow us to find out the extent to which a specific conditioning regimen works for a specific athlete, as opposed to the average athlete, who is the focal point of group research designs. The aim of the following review is to outline the strategies and procedures of single-subject research as they pertain to.. the assessment of conditioning for individual athletes. The four main experimental designs in single-subject research are: the AB design, reversal (withdrawal) designs and their extensions, multiple baseline designs and alternating treatment designs. Visual and statistical analyses commonly used to analyse single-subject data, and advantages and limitations are discussed. Modelling of multivariate single-subject data using techniques such as dynamic factor analysis and structural equation modelling may identify individualised models of conditioning leading to better prediction of performance. Despite problems associated with data analyses in single-subject research (e.g. serial dependency), sports scientists should use single-subject research designs in applied conditioning research to understand how well an intervention (e.g. a training method) works and to predict performance for a particular athlete.

Gauge Poisson representations for birth/death master equations

Poisson representation techniques provide a powerful method for mapping master equations for birth/death processes -- found in many fields of physics, chemistry and biology -- into more tractable stochastic differential equations. However, the usual expansion is not exact in the presence of boundary terms, which commonly occur when the differential equations are nonlinear. In this paper, a gauge Poisson technique is introduced that eliminates boundary terms, to give an exact representation as a weighted rate equation with stochastic terms. These methods provide novel techniques for calculating and understanding the effects of number correlations in systems that have a master equation description. As examples, correlations induced by strong mutations in genetics, and the astrophysical problem of molecule formation on microscopic grain surfaces are analyzed. Exact analytic results are obtained that can be compared with numerical simulations, demonstrating that stochastic gauge techniques can give exact results where standard Poisson expansions are not able to.

Approximating persistence in a general class of population processes

We provide a general framework for estimating persistence in populations which may be affected by catastrophic events, and which are either unbounded or have very large ceilings. We model the population using a birth-death process modified to allow for downward jumps of arbitrary size. For such processes, it is typically necessary to truncate the process in order to make the evaluation of expected extinction times (and higher-order moments) computationally feasible. Hence, we give particular attention to the selection of a cut-off point at which to truncate the process, and we present a simple method for obtaining quantitative indicators of the suitability of a chosen cut-off. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of cosmic ray rejection algorithms on single-shot exposures

To maximise data output from single-shot astronomical images, the rejection of cosmic rays is important. We present the results of a benchmark trial comparing various cosmic ray rejection algorithms. The procedures assess relative performances and characteristics of the processes in cosmic ray detection, rates of false detections of true objects, and the quality of image cleaning and reconstruction. The cosmic ray rejection algorithms developed by Rhoads (2000, PASP, 112, 703), van Dokkum (2001, PASP, 113, 1420), Pych (2004, PASP, 116, 148), and the IRAF task xzap by Dickinson are tested using both simulated and real data. It is found that detection efficiency is independent of the density of cosmic rays in an image, being more strongly affected by the density of real objects in the field. As expected, spurious detections and alterations to real data in the cleaning process are also significantly increased by high object densities. We find the Rhoads' linear filtering method to produce the best performance in the detection of cosmic ray events; however, the popular van Dokkum algorithm exhibits the highest overall performance in terms of detection and cleaning.

Distance measures to compare real and ideal quantum processes

With growing success in experimental implementations it is critical to identify a gold standard for quantum information processing, a single measure of distance that can be used to compare and contrast different experiments. We enumerate a set of criteria that such a distance measure must satisfy to be both experimentally and theoretically meaningful. We then assess a wide range of possible measures against these criteria, before making a recommendation as to the best measures to use in characterizing quantum information processing.

Enhancement of hydrogen physisorption on single-walled carbon nanotubes resulting from defects created by carbon bombardment

The defect effect on hydrogen adsorption on single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) has been studied by using extensive molecular dynamics simulations and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. It indicates that the defects created on the exterior wall of the SWNTs by bombarding the tube wall with carbon atoms and C-2 dimers at a collision energy of 20 eV can enhance the hydrogen adsorption potential of the SWNTs substantially. The average adsorption energy for a H-2 molecule adsorbed on the exterior wall of a defected (10,10) SWNT is similar to 150 meV, while that for a H-2 molecule adsorbed on the exterior wall of a perfect (10,10) SWNT is similar to 104 meV. The H-2 sticking coefficient is very sensitive to temperature, and has a maximum value around 70 to 90 K. The electron density contours, the local density of states, and the electron transfers obtained from the DFT calculations clearly indicate that the H-2 molecules are all physisorbed on the SWNTs. At temperatures above 200 K, most of the H-2 molecules adsorbed on the perfect SWNT are soon desorbed, but the H-2 molecules can still remain on the defected SWNTs at 300 K. The detailed processes of H-2 molecules adsorbing on and desorbing from the (10,10) SWNTs are demonstrated.

Optimal control and operation of drum granulation processes

Process optimisation and optimal control of batch and continuous drum granulation processes are studied in this paper. The main focus of the current research has been: (i) construction of optimisation and control relevant, population balance models through the incorporation of moisture content, drum rotation rate and bed depth into the coalescence kernels; (ii) investigation of optimal operational conditions using constrained optimisation techniques; (iii) development of optimal control algorithms based on discretized population balance equations; and (iv) comprehensive simulation studies on optimal control of both batch and continuous granulation processes. The objective of steady state optimisation is to minimise the recycle rate with minimum cost for continuous processes. It has been identified that the drum rotation-rate, bed depth (material charge), and moisture content of solids are practical decision (design) parameters for system optimisation. The objective for the optimal control of batch granulation processes is to maximize the mass of product-sized particles with minimum time and binder consumption. The objective for the optimal control of the continuous process is to drive the process from one steady state to another in a minimum time with minimum binder consumption, which is also known as the state-driving problem. It has been known for some time that the binder spray-rate is the most effective control (manipulative) variable. Although other possible manipulative variables, such as feed flow-rate and additional powder flow-rate have been investigated in the complete research project, only the single input problem with the binder spray rate as the manipulative variable is addressed in the paper to demonstrate the methodology. It can be shown from simulation results that the proposed models are suitable for control and optimisation studies, and the optimisation algorithms connected with either steady state or dynamic models are successful for the determination of optimal operational conditions and dynamic trajectories with good convergence properties. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat or upon other species in the environment if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often subjected to some form of control. One common control regime is the reduction regime: when the population reaches a certain threshold it is controlled (for example culled) until it falls below a lower predefined level. The natural model for such a controlled population is a birth-death process with two phases, the phase determining which of two distinct sets of birth and death rates governs the process. We present formulae for the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and discuss several applications. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mitochondrial dysmorphology in the neuroepithelium of rat embryos following a single dose of maternal hyperthermia during gestation

Hyperthermia is teratogenic to human and animal embryos and induces mainly anomalies of the nervous system. However, the teratogenic mechanism is poorly understood. Mammalian embryos are known to switch from anaerobic to aerobic metabolism around the time of neural tube closure. This critical event might be sensitive to hyperthermia. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the ultrastructural changes of the mitochondria of the neuroepithelium (NE) of rat embryos following maternal exposure to hyperthermia. Pregnant rats were heat stressed for an hour on gestation day (GD) 9 and embryos were examined by electron microscopy on GD 10. NE presented extensive apoptosis. Intercellular junctions were weakened and copious cellular debris projected into the ventricle. The mitochondria were of diverse size and shape. Most of them were swollen and had short cristae and electron dense matrix. Hydropic changes were also observed in numerous mitochondria. Lipid-laden mitochondria were found in the apical portions of neuroblasts. The mesenchyme (ME) of heat-treated embryos showed paucity of cells and only as frequent apoptosis as the controls. Their mitochondria also showed changes similar to those of the NE. Additionally extensive lipid accumulation was observed in and in the vicinity of mitochondria, often surrounded by short strands of endoplasmic reticulum. Whereas mitochondrial pathology was associated with profound apoptosis in the NE, growth restriction and lipid accumulation accompanied mitochondrial changes in the ME. The results of this study indicate that the embryonic response to maternal heat shock is tissue-specific and morphologically distinct in this species.

Risk factors for schizophrenia. Follow-up data from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort Study

This paper updates single risk factors identified by the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort Study up to the end of year 2001 or age 34. Impaired performance (e.g., delayed motor or intellectual development) or adverse exposures (e.g., pregnancy and birth complications, central nervous system diseases) are associated with an increased risk for schizophrenia. However, upper social class girls and clever schoolboys also have an increased risk to develop schizophrenia, contrasted to their peers. Individuals who subsequently develop schizophrenia follow a developmental trajectory that partly and subtly differs from that of the general population; this trajectory lacks flexibility and responsiveness compared to control subjects, at least in the early stages. We propose a descriptive, lifespan, multilevel systems model on the development and course of schizophrenia.

A diffusion approach to approximating preservation probabilities for gene duplicates

Consider a haploid population and, within its genome, a gene whose presence is vital for the survival of any individual. Each copy of this gene is subject to mutations which destroy its function. Suppose one member of the population somehow acquires a duplicate copy of the gene, where the duplicate is fully linked to the original gene's locus. Preservation is said to occur if eventually the entire population consists of individuals descended from this one which initially carried the duplicate. The system is modelled by a finite state-space Markov process which in turn is approximated by a diffusion process, whence an explicit expression for the probability of preservation is derived. The event of preservation can be compared to the fixation of a selectively neutral gene variant initially present in a single individual, the probability of which is the reciprocal of the population size. For very weak mutation, this and the probability of preservation are equal, while as mutation becomes stronger, the preservation probability tends to double this reciprocal. This is in excellent agreement with simulation studies.

Molecular Sieve Silica (MSS) Membranes for Gas Separation and Reaction Processes

Weakly branched silica films formed by the two-step sol-gel process allow for the formation of high selectivity membranes for gas separation. 29Si NMR and gas permeation showed that reduced crosslinking leads to He/CH4 selectivity improvement from 300 to 1000. Applied in membrane reactor for cyclohexane conversion to benzene, conversions were achieved at 14 fold higher than a conventional reactor at 250°C. Hydrothermal stability studies showed that carbon templating of silica is required for hydrothermally stable membranes. From our work it was shown that with correct application of chemistry, practical membrane systems can be built to suit gas separation (e. g. hydrogen fuel) and reactor systems.

On compliance of business processes with business contracts

This paper addresses the problem of ensuring compliance of business processes, implemented within and across organisational boundaries, with the constraints stated in related business contracts. In order to deal with the complexity of this problem we propose two solutions that allow for a systematic and increasingly automated support for addressing two specific compliance issues. One solution provides a set of guidelines for progressively transforming contract conditions into business processes that are consistent with contract conditions thus avoiding violation of the rules in contract. Another solution compares rules in business contracts and rules in business processes to check for possible inconsistencies. Both approaches rely on a computer interpretable representation of contract conditions that embodies contract semantics. This semantics is described in terms of a logic based formalism allowing for the description of obligations, prohibitions, permissions and violations conditions in contracts. This semantics was based on an analysis of typical building blocks of many commercial, financial and government contracts. The study proved that our contract formalism provides a good foundation for describing key types of conditions in contracts, and has also given several insights into valuable transformation techniques and formalisms needed to establish better alignment between these two, traditionally separate areas of research and endeavour. The study also revealed a number of new areas of research, some of which we intend to address in near future.

Air Entrainment Processes in a Full-Scale Rectangular Dropshaft at Large Flows

Rectangular dropshafts, commonly used in sewers and storm water systems, are characterised by significant flow aeration. New detailed air-water flow measurements were conducted in a near-full-scale dropshaft at large discharges. In the shaft pool and outflow channel, the results demonstrated the complexity of different competitive air entrainment mechanisms. Bubble size measurements showed a broad range of entrained bubble sizes. Analysis of streamwise distributions of bubbles suggested further some clustering process in the bubbly flow although, in the outflow channel, bubble chords were in average smaller than in the shaft pool. A robust hydrophone was tested to measure bubble acoustic spectra and to assess its field application potential. The acoustic results characterised accurately the order of magnitude of entrained bubble sizes, but the transformation from acoustic frequencies to bubble radii did not predict correctly the probability distribution functions of bubble sizes.