Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Drug targets and mechanisms of resistance in the anaerobic protozoa

The anaerobic protozoa Giardia duodenalis, Trichomonas vaginalis, and Entamoeba histolytica infect up to a billion people each year. G. duodenalis and E. histolytica are primarily pathogens of the intestinal tract, although E. histolytica can form abscesses and invade other organs, where it can be fatal if left untreated. T. vaginalis infection is a sexually transmitted infection causing vaginitis and acute inflammatory disease of the genital mucosa. T. vaginalis has also been reported in the urinary tract fallopian tubes, and pelvis and can cause pneumonia, bronchitis, and oral lesions. Respiratory infections can be acquired perinatally. T. vaginalis infections have been associated with preterm delivery, low birth weight, and increased mortality as well as predisposing to human immunodeficiency virus infection, AIDS, and cervical cancer. All three organisms lack mitochondria and are susceptible to the nitroimidazole metronidazole because of similar low-redox-potential anaerobic metabolic pathways. Resistance to metronidazole and other drugs has been observed clinically and in the laboratory. Laboratory studies have identified the enzyme that activates metronidazole, pyruvate:ferredoxin oxidoreductase, to its nitroso form and distinct mechanisms of decreasing drug susceptibility that are induced in each organism. Although the nitroimidazoles have been the drug family of choice for treating the anaerobic protozoa, G. duodenalis is less susceptible to other antiparasitic drugs, such as furazolidone, albendazole, and quinacrine. Resistance has been demonstrated for each agent and the mechanism of resistance has been investigated. Metronidazole resistance in T. vaginalis is well documented, and the principal mechanisms have been defined Bypass metabolism, such as alternative oxidoreductases, have been discovered in both organisms. Aerobic versus anaerobic resistance in T. vaginalis is discussed. Mechanisms of metronidazole resistance in E. histolytica have recently been investigated ruing laboratory-induced resistant isolates. Instead of downregulation of the pyruvate:ferredoxin oxidoreductase and ferredoxin pathway as seen in G. duodenalis and T. vaginalis, E. histolytica induces oxidative stress mechanisms, including superoxide dismutase and peroxiredoxin. The review examines the value of investigating both clinical and laboratory-induced syngeneic drug-resistant isolates and dissection of the complementary data obtained. Comparison of resistance mechanisms in anaerobic bacteria and the parasitic protozoa is discussed as well as the value of studies of the epidemiology of resistance.

Early patterns of sexual activity: age cohort differences in Australia

Patterns of first sexual activity among Australians born between the 1940s and 1980s were analysed using data from a national telephone survey of 1784 adults (876 males; 908 females). Sixty-one percent of those randomly selected from the Australian electoral roll and contactable by telephone responded. Many trends, including earlier first intercourse - from 20 to 18 years (females) and 18.8 to 17.8 years (males) - were established with the 40-49 year cohort, whose sexual debut was in the late 1960s-70s. Significant age-cohort effects saw women in the contemporary (18-29 year) cohort draw level with males for age at first intercourse and first sex before age 16 and before leaving school. First intercourse contraceptive use climbed from 30% to 80'%. Condom use quadrupled to 70%. Australian age-cohort effects are remarkably consistent with those in similar western cultures: gender convergence in sexual experience and increasing avoidance of sexually transmitted disease and pregnancy. If such trends continue, positive long-term outcomes for health and social wellbeing should result.

Complement-mediated regulation of Trichomonas vaginalis infection in mice

Trichomonas vaginalis is a flagellated protozoan which causes trichomoniasis, a sexually transmitted disease of the human genitourinary tract, The importance of the alternative complement pathway in host defence against T. vaginalis was investigated in vitro. Kinetic studies utilising immunofixation following electrophoresis showed that both a strongly and weakly virulent strain of T, vaginalis activated murine serum C3. In vivo studies with congenic-resistant, C5-deficient, B10.D2/OSn- and C5-sufficient, B10.D2/nSn mice showed that the presence of C5 is a significant factor in the innate host resistance to primary infection with a strongly virulent, but not a weakly virulent trichomonad strain.

Patterns of alcohol consumption in young Australian women: socio-demographic factors, health-related behaviours and physical health

Objective: To determine which sociodemographic factors. health-related behaviours and physical health conditions are associated with non-drinking, binge drinking and hazardous/harmful drinking in young Australian women. Methods: Cross-sectional data were obtained from the baseline survey of 14,762 young women (aged 18-23 years) enrolled in the Women's Health Australia study in 1996. Associations between a range of drinking patterns and sociodemographic factors, health-related behaviours and health conditions were examined. Results: Half the women were 'low intake' drinkers, a third 'rarely drank' and 9% were non-drinkers; however, 70% reported binge drinking with one-quarter of the binge drinkers doing so at least weekly. Nondrinkers were more likely than drinkers to be married, pregnant, non-smokers, born in non-English speaking countries, to live in the Northern Territory, and to have lower levels of education, employment, and private health insurance. Low intake/binge weekly' drinkers (12%) and 'hazardous/ harmful' drinkers (5%) were more likely than 'low risk' drinkers to be unmarried; to live in shared accommodation, alone or with their parents; to live in rural or remote areas; to have ever had any sexually transmitted infection; to be current smokers or ex-smokers and to have used unhealthy weight-control practices. Conclusions: The results confirm findings from other countries about the importance of social conditions as determinants of alcohol consumption by young women. Implications: Health promotion to reduce young women's alcohol consumption needs to be carefully targeted to take account of their demographies, living environments and beliefs.

Randomized comparison of the quality of realtime fetal ultrasound images transmitted by ISDN and by IP videoconferencing

We compared the quality of realtime fetal ultrasound images transmitted using ISDN and IP networks. Four experienced obstetric ultrasound specialists viewed standard recordings in a randomized trial and rated the appearance of 30 fetal anatomical landmarks, each on a seven-point scale. A total of 12 evaluations were performed for various combinations of bandwidths (128, 384 or 768 kbit/s) and networks (ISDN or IF). The intraobserver coefficient of variation was 2.9%, 5.0%, 12.7% and 14.7% for the four observers. The mean overall ratings by each of the four observers were 4.6, 4.8, 5.0 and 5.3, respectively (a rating of 4 indicated satisfactory visualization and 7 indicated as good as the original recording). Analysis of variance showed that there were no significant interobserver variations nor significant differences in the mean scores for the different types of videoconferencing machines used. The most significant variable affecting the mean score was the bandwidth used. For ISDN, the mean score was 3.7 at 128 kbit/s, which was significantly worse than the mean score of 4.9 at 384 kbit/s, which was in turn significantly worse than the mean score of 5.9 at 768 kbit/s. The mean score for transmission using IP was about 0.5 points lower than that using ISDN across all the different bandwidths, but the differences were not significant. It appears that IP transmission in a private (non-shared) network is an acceptable alternative to ISDN for fetal tele-ultrasound and one deserving further study.

Prevalence, intensity and risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth infection in a South Indian fishing village

A study of the prevalence, intensity and risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth infection was undertaken among school children aged 5-9 years attending a primary school in the fishing village in Peda Jalaripet, Visakhapatnam, South India. One hundred and eighty nine (92.6%) of 204 children were infected with one or more soil transmitted helminth parasites. The predominant parasite was Ascaris lumbricoides (prevalence of 91%), followed by Trichuris trichiura (72%) and hookworm (54%). Study of age-specific prevalence and intensity of infection revealed that the prevalence and intensity of A. lumbricoides infection was higher among younger children than older children. While aggregation of parasite infection was observed, hookworm infection was more highly aggregated than either A. lumbricoides or T. trichiura. Multivariate analysis identified parental occupation, child's age and mother's education as the potential risk factors contributing to the high intensity of A. lumbricoides infection. Children from fishing families with low levels of education of the mother had the highest intensity of A. lumbricoides infection. As the outcome of chemotherapy programs to control soil transmitted helminth infection is dependant on the dynamics of their transmission, there is a need for further studies to better define the role of specific factors that determine their prevalence, intensity and aggregation in different epidemiological settings. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of bandwidth on the quality of transmitted pediatric echocardiograms

Background: Remote access to pediatric cardiology diagnostic services is enabled by real-time transmission of echocardiographic images. Several transmission bandwidths have been used but there has been little analysis of image quality provided by different bandwidths. We designed a study of the quality of transmitted images at various bandwidths. Methods: Two echocardiographers viewed randomly a series of 13 recorded pediatric echocardiographic images either directly or after transmission using 1 of 4 bandwidths: 256; 384; 512; or 768 kbps. An image clarity scoring scale was used to assess image quality of cardiac structures. Results: Measurable differences were found in image quality with different transmission bandwidths; 512 kbps was the minimum for consistently clear imaging of all cardiac structures examined. Conclusion: Bandwidth greater than 512 kbps confers sharper images subjectively although this could not be quantified by our methods.

Control of vector-borne disease by genetic manipulation of insect populations: technological requirements and research priorities

The possibility of controlling vector-borne disease through the development and release of transgenic insect vectors has recently gained popular support and is being actively pursued by a number of research laboratories around the world. Several technical problems must be solved before such a strategy could be implemented: genes encoding refractory traits (traits that render the insect unable to transmit the pathogen) must be identified, a transformation system for important vector species has to be developed, and a strategy to spread the refractory trait into natural vector populations must be designed. Recent advances in this field of research make it seem likely that this technology will be available in the near future. In this paper we review recent progress in this area as well as argue that care should be taken in selecting the most appropriate disease system with which to first attempt this form of intervention. Much attention is currently being given to the application of this technology to the control of malaria, transmitted by Anopheles gambiae in Africa. While malaria is undoubtedly the most important vector-borne disease in the world and its control should remain an important goal, we maintain that the complex epidemiology of malaria together with the intense transmission rates in Africa may make it unsuitable for the first application of this technology. Diseases such as African trypanosomiasis, transmitted by the tsetse fly, or unstable malaria in India may provide more appropriate initial targets to evaluate the potential of this form of intervention.

Modification of arthropod vector competence via symbiotic bacteria

Some of the world's most devastating diseases are transmitted by arthropod vectors. Attempts to control these arthropods are currently being challenged by the widespread appearance of insecticide resistance. It is therefore desirable to develop alternative strategies to complement existing methods of vector control. In this review, Charles Beard, Scott O'Neill, Robert Tesh, Frank Richards and Serap Aksoy present an approach for introducing foreign genes into insects in order to confer refractoriness to vector populations, ie. the inability to transmit disease-causing agents. This approach aims to express foreign anti-parasitic or anti-viral gene products in symbiotic bacteria harbored by insects. The potential use of naturally occurring symbiont-based mechanisms in the spread of such refractory phenotypes is also discussed.

Injuries and noncommunicable diseases: emerging health problems of children in developing countries

The present article identifies, for children living in developing countries, the major causes of ill-health that are inadequately covered by established health programmes. Injuries and noncommunicable diseases, notably asthma, epilepsy, dental caries, diabetes mellitus and rheumatic heart disease, are growing in significance. In countries where resources are scarce it is to be expected that increasing importance will be attached to the development and implementation of measures against these problems. Their control may benefit from the application of elements of programmes directed against infectious, nutritional and perinatal disorders, which continue to predominate.

The Australian Burden of Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data. Depression was found to be the top-ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden. The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden. Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diseases of the liver and biliary tract. Part 1. Basic principles, MRI in the assessment of diffuse and focal hepatic disease

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) relies on the physical properties of unpaired protons in tissues to generate images. Unpaired protons behave like tiny bar magnets and will align themselves in a magnetic field. Radiofrequency pulses will excite these aligned protons to higher energy states. As they return to their original state, they will release this energy as radio waves. The frequency of the radio waves depends on the local magnetic field and by varying this over a subject, it is possible to build the images we are familiar with. In general, MRI has not been sufficiently sensitive or specific in the assessment of diffuse liver disease for clinical use. However, because of the specific characteristics of fat and iron, it may be useful in the assessment of hepatic steatosis and iron overload. Magnetic resonance imaging is useful in the assessment of focal liver disease, particularly in conjunction with contrast agents. Haemangiomas have a characteristic bright appearance on T-2 weighted images because of the slow flowing blood in dilated sinusoids. Focal nodular hyperplasia (FNH) has a homogenous appearance, and enhances early in the arterial phase after gadolinium injection, while the central scar typically enhances late. Hepatic adenomas have a more heterogenous appearance and also enhance in the arterial phase, but less briskly than FNH. Hepatocellular carcinoma is similar to an adenoma, but typically occurs in a cirrhotic liver and has earlier washout of contrast. The appearance of metastases depends on the underlying primary malignancy. Overall, MRI appears more sensitive and specific than computed tomography with contrast for the detection and evaluation of malignant lesions. (C) 2000 Blackwell Science Asia Pty Ltd.