Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Drug targets and mechanisms of resistance in the anaerobic protozoa

The anaerobic protozoa Giardia duodenalis, Trichomonas vaginalis, and Entamoeba histolytica infect up to a billion people each year. G. duodenalis and E. histolytica are primarily pathogens of the intestinal tract, although E. histolytica can form abscesses and invade other organs, where it can be fatal if left untreated. T. vaginalis infection is a sexually transmitted infection causing vaginitis and acute inflammatory disease of the genital mucosa. T. vaginalis has also been reported in the urinary tract fallopian tubes, and pelvis and can cause pneumonia, bronchitis, and oral lesions. Respiratory infections can be acquired perinatally. T. vaginalis infections have been associated with preterm delivery, low birth weight, and increased mortality as well as predisposing to human immunodeficiency virus infection, AIDS, and cervical cancer. All three organisms lack mitochondria and are susceptible to the nitroimidazole metronidazole because of similar low-redox-potential anaerobic metabolic pathways. Resistance to metronidazole and other drugs has been observed clinically and in the laboratory. Laboratory studies have identified the enzyme that activates metronidazole, pyruvate:ferredoxin oxidoreductase, to its nitroso form and distinct mechanisms of decreasing drug susceptibility that are induced in each organism. Although the nitroimidazoles have been the drug family of choice for treating the anaerobic protozoa, G. duodenalis is less susceptible to other antiparasitic drugs, such as furazolidone, albendazole, and quinacrine. Resistance has been demonstrated for each agent and the mechanism of resistance has been investigated. Metronidazole resistance in T. vaginalis is well documented, and the principal mechanisms have been defined Bypass metabolism, such as alternative oxidoreductases, have been discovered in both organisms. Aerobic versus anaerobic resistance in T. vaginalis is discussed. Mechanisms of metronidazole resistance in E. histolytica have recently been investigated ruing laboratory-induced resistant isolates. Instead of downregulation of the pyruvate:ferredoxin oxidoreductase and ferredoxin pathway as seen in G. duodenalis and T. vaginalis, E. histolytica induces oxidative stress mechanisms, including superoxide dismutase and peroxiredoxin. The review examines the value of investigating both clinical and laboratory-induced syngeneic drug-resistant isolates and dissection of the complementary data obtained. Comparison of resistance mechanisms in anaerobic bacteria and the parasitic protozoa is discussed as well as the value of studies of the epidemiology of resistance.

Early patterns of sexual activity: age cohort differences in Australia

Patterns of first sexual activity among Australians born between the 1940s and 1980s were analysed using data from a national telephone survey of 1784 adults (876 males; 908 females). Sixty-one percent of those randomly selected from the Australian electoral roll and contactable by telephone responded. Many trends, including earlier first intercourse - from 20 to 18 years (females) and 18.8 to 17.8 years (males) - were established with the 40-49 year cohort, whose sexual debut was in the late 1960s-70s. Significant age-cohort effects saw women in the contemporary (18-29 year) cohort draw level with males for age at first intercourse and first sex before age 16 and before leaving school. First intercourse contraceptive use climbed from 30% to 80'%. Condom use quadrupled to 70%. Australian age-cohort effects are remarkably consistent with those in similar western cultures: gender convergence in sexual experience and increasing avoidance of sexually transmitted disease and pregnancy. If such trends continue, positive long-term outcomes for health and social wellbeing should result.

Complement-mediated regulation of Trichomonas vaginalis infection in mice

Trichomonas vaginalis is a flagellated protozoan which causes trichomoniasis, a sexually transmitted disease of the human genitourinary tract, The importance of the alternative complement pathway in host defence against T. vaginalis was investigated in vitro. Kinetic studies utilising immunofixation following electrophoresis showed that both a strongly and weakly virulent strain of T, vaginalis activated murine serum C3. In vivo studies with congenic-resistant, C5-deficient, B10.D2/OSn- and C5-sufficient, B10.D2/nSn mice showed that the presence of C5 is a significant factor in the innate host resistance to primary infection with a strongly virulent, but not a weakly virulent trichomonad strain.

Patterns of alcohol consumption in young Australian women: socio-demographic factors, health-related behaviours and physical health

Objective: To determine which sociodemographic factors. health-related behaviours and physical health conditions are associated with non-drinking, binge drinking and hazardous/harmful drinking in young Australian women. Methods: Cross-sectional data were obtained from the baseline survey of 14,762 young women (aged 18-23 years) enrolled in the Women's Health Australia study in 1996. Associations between a range of drinking patterns and sociodemographic factors, health-related behaviours and health conditions were examined. Results: Half the women were 'low intake' drinkers, a third 'rarely drank' and 9% were non-drinkers; however, 70% reported binge drinking with one-quarter of the binge drinkers doing so at least weekly. Nondrinkers were more likely than drinkers to be married, pregnant, non-smokers, born in non-English speaking countries, to live in the Northern Territory, and to have lower levels of education, employment, and private health insurance. Low intake/binge weekly' drinkers (12%) and 'hazardous/ harmful' drinkers (5%) were more likely than 'low risk' drinkers to be unmarried; to live in shared accommodation, alone or with their parents; to live in rural or remote areas; to have ever had any sexually transmitted infection; to be current smokers or ex-smokers and to have used unhealthy weight-control practices. Conclusions: The results confirm findings from other countries about the importance of social conditions as determinants of alcohol consumption by young women. Implications: Health promotion to reduce young women's alcohol consumption needs to be carefully targeted to take account of their demographies, living environments and beliefs.

Granulomatous meningoencephalomyelitis in dogs

Granulomatous meningoencephalomyelitis (GME) is a morphological description of an inflammatory disorder of the canine central nervous system (CNS). It has been reported in many areas of the world. including Australia, and is one of the more common nervous disorders of dogs. Most breeds of dogs of both sexes and all ages can be affected but young to middle-aged small and terrier breeds have been stated as being more susceptible. There are variable anatomical forms and distribution of the lesions in the CNS; the presenting clinical signs can reflect singly or collectively cerebellar, cerebral, and brain stem dysfunction. Meningeal and spinal cord involvement are also common. There is no specific diagnostic test but a combination of clinical signs, history and cerebro-spinal fluid cytology are useful indicators. However differential diagnosis from other inflammatory disorders of the brain is difficult. No infectious agent aetiology has been established for GME and therefore no satisfactory therapeutic approach is available. The role of the immune system in terms of either initiating or potentiating the lesions in the CNS appears to be the most likely direction for further investigation into the nature of this disorder.

Rapid diagnosis in pediatric infectious diseases: The past, the present and the future

The focus of rapid diagnosis of infectious diseases of children in the last decade has shifted from variations of the conventional laboratory techniques of antigen detection, microscopy and culture to that of molecular diagnosis of infectious agents. Pediatricians will need to be able to interpret the use, limitations and results of molecular diagnostic techniques as they are increasingly integrated into routine clinical microbiology laboratory protocols. PCR is the best known and most successfully implemented diagnostic molecular technology to date. It can detect specific infectious agents and determine their virulence and antimicrobial genotypes with greater speed, sensitivity and specificity than conventional microbiology methods. Inherent technical limitations of PCR are present, although they are reduced in laboratories that follow suitable validation and quality control procedures. Variations of PCR together with advances in nucleic acid amplification technology have broadened its diagnostic capabilities in clinical infectious disease to now rival and even surpass traditional methods in some situations. Automation of all components of PCR is now possible. The completion of the genome sequencing projects for significant microbial pathogens, in combination with PCR and DNA chip technology, will revolutionize the diagnosis and management of infectious diseases.