The psychophysiology of anticipation

The current research explored the processes that predominate during the anticipation of an emotionally salient event. Experiment 1 (N536), employed three different conditional stimuli followed by pictorial pleasant, unpleasant or neutral unconditioned stimuli. Half the participants were trained with visual CSs, the other half with tactile CSs. In the group trained with visual CSs, startle eyeblinks were larger and faster during CSs that were paired with unpleasant pictures than CSs paired with neutral or pleasant pictures respectively, indicating an affect startle pattern. This linear trend was not found in the group trained with tactile CSs. Experiment 2 (N564) aimed to investigate whether the affective pattern found in the startle data in Experiment 1 could also be found using a behavioural measure of emotion. This time participants’ reaction time during a post-experimental affective priming taskwas used as dependantmeasure to assess the presence of emotional learning. Instead of a simple differential conditioning task, an occasion setting paradigm was employed and participants were trained using either a feature positive or feature negative design with pleasant or unpleasant picture USs. For participants trained with unpleasant USs, valence ratings collected before and after conditioning training suggested the presence of emotional learning, whereas no such pattern was found for participants trained with pleasant USs. These findings were not confirmed in the priming data.

Relationship between oviposition preference and offspring performance in Australian Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae)

We investigated the oviposition preference and larval performance of Helicoverpa armigera under laboratory conditions to determine if the oviposition preference of individual females on maize, cowpea and cotton correlates with offspring performance on the leaves of the same host plants. The host-plant preference hierarchy of females did not correlate with their offspring performance. Female moths chose host plants that contributed less to their offspring fitness. Plant effects accounted for the largest amount of variation in offspring performance, while the effects of female (family) was low. The offspring of most females (80%, n = 10) were broadly similar, but 20% (two out of 10), showed marked difference in their offspring performance across the host-plant species. Similarly, there was no relation between larval feeding preference and performance. However, like most laboratory experiments, our experi-mental design does not allow the evaluation of ecological factors (for example, natural enemies, host abundance, etc.) that can play an important role in larval performance in the field. Overall, the results highlight the importance of carrying out preference performance analysis on the individual or family level, rather than pooling individuals to obtain average population data.

Predicting cave initiation and propagation

The most widely used method for predicting the onset of continuous caving is Laubscher's caving chart. A detailed examination of this method was undertaken which concluded that it had limitations which may impact on results, particularly when dealing with stronger rock masses that are outside current experience. These limitations relate to inadequate guidelines for adjustment factors to rock mass rating (RMR), concerns about the position on the chart of critical case history data, undocumented changes to the method and an inadequate number of data points to be confident of stability boundaries. A review was undertaken on the application and reliability of a numerical method of assessing cavability. The review highlighted a number of issues, which at this stage, make numerical continuum methods problematic for predicting cavability. This is in particular reference to sensitivity to input parameters that are difficult to determine accurately and mesh dependency. An extended version of the Mathews method for open stope design was developed as an alternative method of predicting the onset of continuous caving. A number of caving case histories were collected and analyzed and a caving boundary delineated statistically on the Mathews stability graph. The definition of the caving boundary was aided by the existence of a large and wide-ranging stability database from non-caving mines. A caving rate model was extrapolated from the extended Mathews stability graph but could only be partially validated due to a lack of reliable data.

Genes, morphology and agreement: congruence in Australian anthracine bee flies (Diptera : Bombyliidae : Anthracinae)

Almost half of the 4547 described bee flies (Bombyliidae: Diptera) in the world belong to the subfamily Anthracinae, with most of the world's diversity in three cosmopolitan tribes: Villini, Anthracini and Exoprosopini. Molecular data from 815 base pairs of 16S mitochondrial DNA and morphological characters from species-groups of these tribes in Australia were analysed cladistically. The results show that the relationships between the anthracine tribes reflect those found in a previous morphological analysis. The genera of the Anthracinae in Australia are monophyletic, except for Ligyra Newman, and are assigned to tribes. Although simultaneous analysis of the combined molecular and morphological data produced clades found in both separate analyses, the different data sources are significantly incongruent. We use phylogenetic measures to examine support for the relationships among the Australian Anthracinae inferred by the molecular and morphological data.

Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Excess in cardiovascular events on mondays: a meta-analysis analysis and prospective study

The aim of this paper was to summarise the reported excess in coronary events on Mondays, and examine the evidence for three competing explanations: stress, alcohol consumption, or registration errors. A review of the literature found 28 studies covering 16 countries and over 1.6 million coronary events. The overall Monday excess was small; in a population experiencing 100 coronary events per week there was one more event on Monday than other days. The excess was larger in men and in studies including sudden cardiac death or cardiac arrests. In a prospective study an increase in events on Mondays was associated with greater alcohol consumption, lower rainfall, and the month of January. The excess in coronary events on Mondays is a persistent phenomenon. The size of the effect varies widely between populations. There is some evidence of an association with alcohol consumption, but a definitive explanation remains elusive and is likely to remain so because of the smallness of the effect and the paucity of high quality data.

Analysis of population pharmacokinetic data using NONMEM and WinBUGS

The aim of this report is to describe the use of WinBUGS for two datasets that arise from typical population pharmacokinetic studies. The first dataset relates to gentamicin concentration-time data that arose as part of routine clinical care of 55 neonates. The second dataset incorporated data from 96 patients receiving enoxaparin. Both datasets were originally analyzed by using NONMEM. In the first instance, although NONMEM provided reasonable estimates of the fixed effects parameters it was unable to provide satisfactory estimates of the between-subject variance. In the second instance, the use of NONMEM resulted in the development of a successful model, albeit with limited available information on the between-subject variability of the pharmacokinetic parameters. WinBUGS was used to develop a model for both of these datasets. Model comparison for the enoxaparin dataset was performed by using the posterior distribution of the log-likelihood and a posterior predictive check. The use of WinBUGS supported the same structural models tried in NONMEM. For the gentamicin dataset a one-compartment model with intravenous infusion was developed, and the population parameters including the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix were available. Analysis of the enoxaparin dataset supported a two compartment model as superior to the one-compartment model, based on the posterior predictive check. Again, the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix parameters were available. Fully Bayesian approaches using MCMC methods, via WinBUGS, can offer added value for analysis of population pharmacokinetic data.

Normalized Gaussian Networks with Mixed Feature Data

With mixed feature data, problems are induced in modeling the gating network of normalized Gaussian (NG) networks as the assumption of multivariate Gaussian becomes invalid. In this paper, we propose an independence model to handle mixed feature data within the framework of NG networks. The method is illustrated using a real example of breast cancer data.

Data mining and simulation: a grey relationship demonstration

Fuzzy data has grown to be an important factor in data mining. Whenever uncertainty exists, simulation can be used as a model. Simulation is very flexible, although it can involve significant levels of computation. This article discusses fuzzy decision-making using the grey related analysis method. Fuzzy models are expected to better reflect decision-making uncertainty, at some cost in accuracy relative to crisp models. Monte Carlo simulation is used to incorporate experimental levels of uncertainty into the data and to measure the impact of fuzzy decision tree models using categorical data. Results are compared with decision tree models based on crisp continuous data.

Cobalt complexes of tripodal hexadentate ligands: Electrochemically driven rearrangements

The Co-III complexes of the hexadentate tripodal ligands HOsen (3-(2'-aminoethylamino)-2,2-bis((2 ''-aminoethylamino) methyl) propan-1-ol) and HOten (3-(2'-aminoethylthia)-2,2-bis((2 ''-aminoethylthia) methyl) propan-1-ol) have been synthesized and fully characterized. The crystal structures of [Co(HOsen)]Cl-3 center dot H2O and [Co(HOten)](ClO4)Cl-2 are reported and in both cases the ligands coordinate as tripodal hexadentate N-6 and N3S3 donors, respectively. Cyclic voltammetry of the N3S3 coordinated complex [Co(HOten)](3+) is complicated and electrode dependent. On a Pt working electrode an irreversible Co-III/II couple ( formal potential - 157 mV versus Ag-AgCl) is seen, which is indicative of dissociation of the divalent complex formed at the electrode. The free HOten released by the dissociation of [Co(HOten)](2+) can be recaptured by Hg as shown by cyclic voltammetry experiments on a static Hg drop electrode ( or in the presence of Hg2+ ions), which leads to the formation of an electroactive Hg-II complex of the N3S3 ligand (formal potential + 60 mV versus Ag-AgCl). This behaviour is in contrast to the facile and totally reversible voltammetry of the hexaamine complex [Co(HOsen)](3+) ( formal potential (Co-III/II) - 519 mV versus Ag-AgCl), which is uncomplicated by any coupled chemical reactions. Akinetic and thermodynamic analysis of the [Co(HOten)](2+)/[Hg(HOten)](2+) system is presented on the basis of digital simulation of the experimental voltammetric data.

Data quality initiatives - striving for continuous improvements

Although managers consider accurate, timely, and relevant information as critical to the quality of their decisions, evidence of large variations in data quality abounds. Over a period of twelve months, the action research project reported herein attempted to investigate and track data quality initiatives undertaken by the participating organisation. The investigation focused on two types of errors: transaction input errors and processing errors. Whenever the action research initiative identified non-trivial errors, the participating organisation introduced actions to correct the errors and prevent similar errors in the future. Data quality metrics were taken quarterly to measure improvements resulting from the activities undertaken during the action research project. The action research project results indicated that for a mission-critical database to ensure and maintain data quality, commitment to continuous data quality improvement is necessary. Also, communication among all stakeholders is required to ensure common understanding of data quality improvement goals. The action research project found that to further substantially improve data quality, structural changes within the organisation and to the information systems are sometimes necessary. The major goal of the action research study is to increase the level of data quality awareness within all organisations and to motivate them to examine the importance of achieving and maintaining high-quality data.