Cadence, war and security

An increased incidence of attack has been identified as a major characteristic of the new threat posed by terrorist groups such as al Qaeda. This article considers what such a change means for Western national security systems by examining bow different parts of the system change over time. It becomes evident that Western national security systems are structured on an assumption of comparatively slow state-based threats. In contrast, terrorist franchises operate at a faster pace, are more 'lightweight' and can adapt within the operational and capability cycles of Western governments. Neither network-centric warfare nor an improved assessment of the threat, called for by some, offers a panacea in this regard. Rather, it is clear that not only do Western governments need to adjust their operational and capability cycles, but that they also need a greater diversity of responses to increase overall national security resilience and offer more tools for policy-makers.

On bridging the gap: The relevance of theory to the practice of conflict resolution

It is often claimed that policy makers and scholars inhabit different worlds and have little for each other. We challenge this perception and claim that there is a strong symbiotic relationship between the two. This relationship is particularly strong in the field of conflict where policy makers may be in desperate need of guidelines, advice and analysis on how to transform complex conflict situations into more peaceful ones. We suggest that policy makers may think in terms of macro and micro-level theories and ideas if they wish to embrace better strategies of conflict resolution.

Self-consistent theory of atomic Fermi gases with a Feshbach resonance at the superfluid transition

A self-consistent theory is derived to describe the BCS-Bose-Einstein-condensate crossover for a strongly interacting Fermi gas with a Feshbach resonance. In the theory the fluctuation of the dressed molecules, consisting of both preformed Cooper pairs and bare Feshbach molecules, has been included within a self-consistent T-matrix approximation, beyond the Nozieres and Schmitt-Rink strategy considered by Ohashi and Griffin. The resulting self-consistent equations are solved numerically to investigate the normal-state properties of the crossover at various resonance widths. It is found that the superfluid transition temperature T-c increases monotonically at all widths as the effective interaction between atoms becomes more attractive. Furthermore, a residue factor Z(m) of the molecule's Green function and a complex effective mass have been determined to characterize the fraction and lifetime of Feshbach molecules at T-c. Our many-body calculations of Z(m) agree qualitatively well with recent measurments of the gas of Li-6 atoms near the broad resonance at 834 G. The crossover from narrow to broad resonances has also been studied.

Identifying critical components during information security evaluations

Electronic communications devices intended for government or military applications must be rigorously evaluated to ensure that they maintain data confidentiality. High-grade information security evaluations require a detailed analysis of the device's design, to determine how it achieves necessary security functions. In practice, such evaluations are labour-intensive and costly, so there is a strong incentive to find ways to make the process more efficient. In this paper we show how well-known concepts from graph theory can be applied to a device's design to optimise information security evaluations. In particular, we use end-to-end graph traversals to eliminate components that do not need to be evaluated at all, and minimal cutsets to identify the smallest group of components that needs to be evaluated in depth.

Theory of mind and mental state discourse during book reading and story-telling tasks

This article presents three studies conducted in Canada and Australia that relate theory of mind (ToM) development to mental state discourse. In Study 1, mental state discourse was examined while parents and their 5-7-year-old children jointly read a storybook which had a surprise ending about the identity of the main character. Comments specific to the mental states of the story characters and discourse after the book had ended were positively related to children's ToM, and this was due to parent elaborations. Studies 2 and 3 examined children's mental state discourse during storytelling tasks, and in both, mental state discourse of children during narrative was concurrently related to ToM performance. While research has shown that mental state discourse of parents is related to children's ToM acquisition, the current research indicates that children's spontaneous use of mental state language examined outside of the interactional context is also a strong correlate.

Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Telling the story of theory of mind: Deaf and hearing children's narratives and mental state understanding

Theory of mind (ToM) was examined in late-signing deaf children in two studies by using standard tests and measures of spontaneous talk about inner states of perception, affect and cognition during storytelling. In Study 1, there were 21 deaf children aged 6 to 11 years and 13 typical-hearing children matched with the deaf by chronological age. In Study 2, there were 17 deaf children aged 6 to 12 years and 17 typical-hearing preschoolers aged 4 to 5 years who were matched with the deaf by ToM test performance. In addition to replicating the consistently reported finding of poor performance on standard false belief tests by late-signing deaf children, significant correlations emerged in both studies between deaf children's ToM test scores and their spontaneous narrative talk about imaginative cognition (e.g. 'pretend'). In Study 2, with a new set of purpose-built pictures that evoked richer and more complex mentalistic narration than the published picture book of Study 1, results of multiple regression analyses showed that children's narrative talk about imaginative cognition was uniquely important, over and above hearing status and talking of other kinds of mental states, in predicting ToM scores. The same was true of children's elaborated narrative talk using utterances that either spelt out thoughts, explained inner states or introduced contrastives. In addition, results of a Guttman scalograrn analysis in Study 2 suggested a consistent sequence in narrative and standard test performance by deaf and hearing children that went from (1) narrative mention of visible (affective or perceptual) mental states only, along with FB failure, to (2) narrative mention of cognitive states along with (1), to (3) elaborated narrative talk about inner states along with (2), and finally to (4) simple and elaborated narrative talk about affective/perceptual and cognitive states along with FIB test success. Possible explanations for this performance ordering, as well as for the observed correlations in both studies between ToM test scores and narrative variables, were considered.

A complex systems approach to the value of ecological resources

A theory of value sits at the core of every school of economic thought and directs the allocation of resources to competing uses. Ecological resources complicate the modem neoclassical approach to determining value due to their complex nature, considerable non-market values and the difficulty in assigning property rights. Application of the market model through economic valuation only provides analytical solutions based on virtual markets, and neither the demand nor supply-side techniques of valuation can adequately consider the complex set of biophysical and ecological relations that lead to the provision of ecosystem goods and services. This paper sets out a conceptual framework for a complex systems approach to the value of ecological resources. This approach is based on there being both an intrinsic quality of ecological resources and a subjective evaluation by the consumer. Both elements are necessary for economic value. This conceptual framework points the way towards a theory of value that incorporates both elements, so has implications for principles by which ecological resources can be allocated. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Why is economics not a complex systems science?

The article argues that economics will have to become a complex systems science before economists can comfortably incorporate institutionalist and evolutionary economics into mainstream theory. The article compares the complex adaptive system of John Foster with that of standard economic theory and illustrates the difference through an examination of familiar production function. The place of neoclassical, Keynesian economics in complex systems is considered. The article concludes that convincing, multiple models have been made possible by the increase in widely available computing power available.

Signal or Noise? Information Theory and the Novel

In the context of a hostile funding environment, universities are increasingly asked to justify their output in narrowly defined economic terms, and this can be difficult in Humanities or Arts faculties where productivity is rarely reducible to a simple financial indicator. This can lead to a number of immediate consequences that I have no need to rehearse here, but can also result in some interesting tensions within the academic community itself. First is that which has become known as the ‘Science Wars’: the increasingly acrimonious exchanges between scientists and scientific academics and cultural critics or theorists about who has the right to describe the world. Much has already been said—and much remains to be said—about this issue, but it is not my intention to discuss it here. Rather, I will look at a second area of contestation: the incorporation of scientific theory into literary or cultural criticism. Much of this work comes from a genuine commitment to interdisciplinarity, and an appreciation of insights that a fresh perspective can bring to a familiar object. However, some can be seen as cynical attempts to lend literary studies the sort of empirical legitimacy of the sciences. In particular, I want to look at a number of critics who have applied information theory to the literary work. In this paper, I will examine several instances of this sort of criticism, and then, through an analysis of a novel by American author Richard Powers, Three Farmers on Their Way to a Dance, show how this sort of criticism merely reduces the meaningful analysis of a complex literary text.

Adoption, adult attachment security, and relationship outcomes

Despite reports that adopted persons are destined for poor psychological and relational adjustment, this conclusion remains controversial. Previous research on this topic has been inconclusive, and has failed to provide a complex assessment of the predictors of adjustment. For instance, whether attachment security plays a key role in later relationship outcomes remains unresolved. This paper presents the results of a longitudinal study of adults who were adopted as infants, and a comparison sample of adults who grew up with both biological parents. Two research questions were addressed: differences in attachment security between the two samples, and the predictive relations between initial attachment scales and relationship variables (e.g., risk in intimacy, loneliness) assessed at follow-up. Attachment profiles at Time 1 indicated less security in the adopted sample than the comparison sample, and these differences were maintained at follow-up. However, adoptees who had not searched for birth relatives did not differ from the comparison sample. Although sample (adopted / comparison) was an important predictor of some relationship variables, it became less influential when attachment measures were included. Discussion focused on the complex factors that influence attachment security, and the need for in-depth study of the relational experiences of adopted people.

Reweaving the Silk Road through outsourcing and offshoring: The need for an externalisation theory

The reweaving and repaving of the modern Silk Road passes through outsourcing and offshoring activities that have a profound impact on both global business psyche and landscape. Firms, in particular, and their global value chain are being shaped and reshaped through a complex concoction of vertical integration and disintegration. The boundary of the firm and the firm/market interface has been of interest to students of organisation and economics for some time. It has provided the context for Internalisation Theory. Within the new economy, the twin trends of globalisation and advancing technologies are giving rise to a hitherto unknown “worldwide market for market transactions? and increased opportunities for international expansion by firms via market-based modes of organisation. We describe these trends and offer an early modeling approach for explaining why some firm’s externalise the marginal transaction in the so-called new economy. The paper further draws attention on the need to articulate an “Externalisation Theory? that adequately accounts for the firm’s offshoring and outsourcing activities, and that parallels as well as complement “Internalisation Theory? for a full explanation of today’s firms behaviour.

Chaos Theory as an Approach to Understanding MICE in Time of Crisis

MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions), has generated high foreign exchange revenue for the economy worldwide. In Thailand, MICE tourists are recognized as ‘quality’ visitors, mainly because of their high-spending potential. Having said that, Thailand’s MICE sector has been influenced by a number of crises following September 11, 2001. Consequently, professionals in the MICE sector must be prepared to deal with such complex phenomena of crisis that might happen in the future. While a number of researches have examined the complexity of crises in the tourism context, there has been little focus on such issues in the MICE sector. As chaos theory provides a particularly good model for crisis situations, it is the aim of this paper to propose a chaos theory-based approach to the understanding of complex and chaotic system of the MICE sector in time of crisis.

RSA-Grid: A grid computing based framework for power system reliability and security analysis

Grid computing is an emerging technology for providing the high performance computing capability and collaboration mechanism for solving the collaborated and complex problems while using the existing resources. In this paper, a grid computing based framework is proposed for the probabilistic based power system reliability and security analysis. The suggested name of this computing grid is Reliability and Security Grid (RSA-Grid). Then the architecture of this grid is presented. A prototype system has been built for further development of grid-based services for power systems reliability and security assessment based on probabilistic techniques, which require high performance computing and large amount of memory. Preliminary results based on prototype of this grid show that RSA-Grid can provide the comprehensive assessment results for real power systems efficiently and economically.

Actor-network theory as a theoretical lens and research strategy for investigating firm internationalisation

Totally generalisable theories of firm internationalisation in the post-industrial era of international business, where national barriers are becoming less significant and technology becoming more influential, appear to be illusory. Stepwise or evolutionary models that predict gradual internationalisation are under challenge from empirical evidence of rapid internationalisation such as the phenomenon of the “born global” firm. Similarly, equilibrium models such as the eclectic paradigm have been criticised for being static and unable to account for process and path dependency. In this paper, the information and knowledge assumptions implied in theories of firm internationalisation are outlined and discussed. From this discussion, we suggest that actor-network theory, with its balance between description and explanation, may be a useful theoretical and empirical tool for investigating the complex and heterogeneous process of firm internationalisation whilst creating opportunities for further theory building.