The phylogeography and connectivity of the latitudinally widespread scleractinian coral Plesiastrea versipora in the Western Pacific

Whereas terrestrial animal populations might show genetic connectivity within a continent, marine species, such as hermatypic corals, may have connectivity stretching to all corners of the planet. We quantified the genetic variability within and among populations of the widespread scleractinian coral, Plesiastrea versipora along the eastern Australian seaboard (4145 km) and the Ryukyu Archipelago (Japan, 681 km) using sequences of internal transcribed spacers (ITS1-2) from ribosomal DNA. Geographic patterns in genetic variability were deduced from a nested clade analysis (NCA) performed on a parsimony network haplotype. This analysis allowed the establishment of geographical associations in the distribution of haplotypes within the network cladogram, therefore allowing us to deduce phylogeographical patterns based under models of restricted gene flow, fragmentation and range expansion. No significant structure was found among Ryukyu Archipelago populations. The lack of an association between the positions of haplotypes in the cladogram with geographical location of these populations may be accounted for by a high level of gene flow of P. versipora within this region, probably due to the strong Kuroshio Current. In contrast, strong geographical associations were apparent among populations of P. versipora along the south-east coast of Australia. This pattern of restricted genetic connectivity among populations of P. versipora on the eastern seaboard of Australia seems to be associated with the present surface ocean current (the East Australian Current) on this side of the south-western Pacific Ocean.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003

Speciation and phylogeography in Caridina indistincta, a complex of freshwater shrimps from Australian heathland streams

The Caridina indistincta complex is a group of closely related atyid shrimps that inhabit coastal freshwater streams throughout north-eastern Australia. Using mitochondrial DNA sequence data (cytochrome oxidase 1, CO1), we (1) inferred the timing of speciation in the C. indistincta group and (2) examined the intraspecific phylogeographic patterns within the group. Assuming a shrimp-specific rate of CO1 evolution, the level of sequence divergence among species suggests that speciation took place during the Miocene epoch. Within one widespread mainland species, phylogeographic patterns suggest strong geographic 'regionalisation' of mtDNA lineages that are most likely of Pleistocene origin. By contrast, another species comprises two highly divergent mtDNA lineages that occur in sympatry. We suggest that although Pleistocene sea-level regressions appear important in generating population-level phylogeographic patterns, these events were largely unimportant in the formation of species in this group.