Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Do risk factors for lactic acidosis influence dosing of metformin?

Background: Metformin is commonly prescribed to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, however it is associated with the potentially lethal condition of lactic acidosis. Prescribing guidelines have been developed to minimize the risk of lactic acidosis development, although some suggest they are inappropriate and have created confusion amongst prescribers. The aim of this study was to investigate whether metformin dose was influenced by the presence of risk factors for lactic acidosis. Methods: The study was prospective, and retrieved information from patients admitted to hospital who were prescribed metformin at their time of admission. Results: Eighty-three patients were included in the study, 60 of whom had a least one risk factor for lactic acidosis. Of those 60 patients, 78.3% had a dose adjustment, with renal impairment, hepatic impairment, surgery and use of radiological contrast media - the risk factors most likely to result in a dose adjustment. When dose adjustments did occur, metformin was withheld on 88.7% of occasions. Conclusion: Metformin dose was influenced by the presence of risk factors for lactic acidosis, although it was dependent upon the number and particular risk factor/s present.

Depression in young adolescents: Investigations using 2 and 3 factor versions of the parental bonding instrument

Associations between parenting style and depressive symptomatology in a community sample of young adolescents (N = 2596) were investigated using self-report measures including the Parental Bonding Instrument and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Specifically, the 25-item 2-factor and 3-factor models by Parker et al. (1979), Kendler's (1996) 16-item 3-factor model, and Parker's (1983) quadrant model for the Parental Bonding Instrument were compared. Data analysis included analysis of variance and logistic regression. Reanalysis of Parker's original scale indicates that overprotection is composed of separate factors: intrusiveness (at the individual level) and restrictiveness (in the social context). All models reveal significant independent contributions from paternal care, maternal care, and maternal overprotection (2-factor) or intrusiveness (3-factor) to moderate and serious depressive symptomatology, controlling for sex and family living arrangement. Additive rather than multiplicative interactions between care and overprotection were found. Regardless of the level of parental care and affection, clinicians should note that maternal intrusiveness is strongly associated with adverse psychosocial health in young adolescents.

Vitamin D supplementation during the first year of life and risk of schizophrenia: a Finnish birth cohort study

Objective: Based on clues from epidemiology and animal experiments, low vitamin D during early life has been proposed as a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of this study was to explore the association between the use of vitamin D supplements during the first year of life and risk of developing schizophrenia. Method: Subjects were drawn from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort (n = 9 114). During the first year of life, data were collected about the frequency and dose of vitamin D supplementation. Our primary outcome measures were schizophrenia, psychotic disorders other than schizophrenia, and nonpsychotic disorders as diagnosed by age 31 years. Males and females were examined separately. Results: In males, the use of either irregular or regular vitamin D supplements was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia (Risk ratio (RR) = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.95; RR = 0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.90, respectively) compared with no supplementation. In males, the use of at least 2000 IU of vitamin D was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia (RR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.06-0.95) compared to those on lower doses. There were no significant associations between either the frequency or dose of vitamin D supplements and (a) schizophrenia in females, nor with (b) nonpsychotic disorder or psychotic disorders other than schizophrenia in either males or females. Conclusion: Vitamin D supplementation during the first year of life is associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia in males. Preventing hypovitaminosis D during early life may reduce the incidence of schizophrenia. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ross River virus disease in Australia, 1886-1998, with analysis of risk factors associated with outbreaks

Ross River virus (RE) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand human and environmental factors driving such events, 57 historical reports oil RR Outbreaks between 1896 and 1998 were examined collectively. The magnitude, regularity, seasonality, and locality of outbreaks were found to be wide ranging; however, analysis of climatic and tidal data highlighted that environmental conditions let differently ill tropical, arid, and temperate regions. Overall, rainfall seems to be the single most important risk factor, with over 90% of major outbreak locations receiving higher than average rainfall in preceding mouths. Many temperatures were close to average, particularly in tropical populations; however, in arid regions, below average maximum temperatures predominated, and ill southeast temperate regions, above average minimum temperatures predominated. High spring tides preceded coastal Outbreaks, both in the presence and absence of rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index and Lit Nina episodes suggest they may be useful predictive tools, but only ill southeast temperate regions. Such heterogeneity predisposing outbreaks supports the notion that there are different RE epidemiologies throughout Australia but also Suggests that generic parameters for the prediction and control of outbreaks are of limited use at a local level.

A comparison of the association between socioeconomic position and cardiovascular disease risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women: findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Objectives To assess the associations between three measurements of socioeconomic position (SEP) - education, occupation and ability to cope on available income - and cardiovascular risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of three cohorts of Australian women aged 18-23, 45-50 and 70-75 years. Results In general, for all exposures and in all three cohorts, the odds of each adverse risk factor (smoking, obesity and physical inactivity) were lower in the most advantaged compared with the least advantaged. Within each of the three cohorts, the effects of each measurement of SEP on the outcomes were similar. There were, however, some notable between-cohort differences. The most marked differences were those with smoking. For women aged 70-75 (older), those with the highest educational attainment were more likely to have ever smoked than those with the lowest level of attainment. However, for the other two cohorts, this association was reversed, with a stronger association between low levels of education and ever smoking among those aged 18-23 (younger) than those aged 45-50 (mid-age). Similarly, for older women, those in the most skilled occupational classes were most likely to have ever smoked, with opposite findings for mid-age women. Education was also differently associated with physical inactivity across the three cohorts. Older women who were most educated were least likely to be physically inactive, whereas among the younger and mid-age cohorts there was little or no effect of education on physical inactivity. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the association between SEP and some health outcomes. Our findings do not appear to confirm previous suggestions that prestige-based measurements of SEP are more strongly associated with health-related behaviours than measurements that reflect material and psychosocial resources.

Migraine and risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage: a population-based case-control study

Objective. Evidence exists for an association between migraine and ischaemic stroke, but there is uncertainty about whether migraine is a risk factor for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). Methods. A multi-centre, population-based, case-control study using cases of first-ever SAH during 1995-98 and matched controls in four study centres in Australia and New Zealand. Self- or proxy-reported history, frequency and characteristics of headaches, classified according to 1988 International Headache Society diagnostic criteria. Results. 206 of 432 (48%) cases and 236 of 473 (50%) controls had a history of headaches. The frequency and characteristics of headaches were similar between the two groups. No association was found in logistic regression analyses for history or frequency of headaches, or migraine headaches. Conclusions. No evidence was found for an association between recurrent headaches and SAH. Such information is important for counselling patients and families about the significance of past and ongoing headaches in relation to this illness. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steatosis: Co-factor in other liver diseases

The prevalence of fatty liver is rising in association with the global increase in obesity and type 2 diabetes. In the past, simple steatosis was regarded as benign, but the presence of another liver disease may provide a synergistic combination of steatosis, cellular adaptation, and oxidative damage that aggravates liver injury. In this review, a major focus is on the role of steatosis as a co-factor in chronic hepatitis C (HCV), where the mechanisms promoting fibrosis and the effect of weight reduction in minimizing liver injury have been most widely studied. Steatosis, obesity, and associated metabolic factors may also modulate the response to alcohol- and drug-induced liver disease and may be risk factors for the development of hepatocellular cancer. The pathogenesis of injury in obesity-related fatty liver disease involves a number of pathways, which are currently under investigation. Enhanced oxidative stress, increased susceptibility to apoptosis, and a dysregulated response to cellular injury have been implicated, and other components of the metabolic syndrome such as hyperinsulinernia and hyperglycemia are likely to have a role. Fibrosis also may be increased as a by-product of altered hepatocyte regeneration and activation of bipotential hepatic progenitor cells. In conclusion, active management of obesity and a reduction in steatosis may improve liver injury and decrease the progression of fibrosis.

RAD52 Y415X truncation polymorphism and epithelial ovarian cancer risk in Australian women

The RAD52 gene is involved in the homologous recombination repair pathway and is a plausible candidate ovarian cancer predisposition gene. We undertook a case-control comparison of 508 epithelial ovarian cancer cases (91 low malignant potential and 417 invasive) and 298 healthy controls to assess the RAD52 Y415X polymorphism as a risk factor for epithelial ovarian cancer in Australian women. Heterozygote frequencies of 2.6 and 4% were observed among cases and controls, respectively. The risk estimate was 0.55 (95%CI 0.24-1.24), suggesting that the RAD52 Y415X polymorphism is not associated with epithelial ovarian cancer in Australian women. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disease risk and mortality prediction in intensive care patients with pneumonia. Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II)

This study of ventilated patients investigated pneumonia risk factors and outcome predictors in 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% community-acquired pneumonia, 24% hospital-acquired pneumonia, 28% ventilator-associated pneumonia) using a prospective survey in 14 intensive care units within Australia and New Zealand. For community acquired pneumonia, mortality increased with immunosuppression (OR 5.32, CI 95% 1.58-17.99, P < 0. 01), clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.43, CI 95% 1.09-5.44, P = 0. 03) and Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores (OR 1.19, CI 95% 1.08-1.30, P < 0. 001) but improved if appropriate antibiotic changes were made within three days of intensive care unit admission (OR 0.42, CI 95% 0.20-0.86, P = 0.02). For hospital-acquired pneumonia, immunosuppression (OR 6.98, CI 95% 1.16-42.2, P = 0.03) and non-metastatic cancer (OR 3.78, CI 95% 1.20-11.93, P = 0.02) were the principal mortality predictors. Alcoholism (OR 7.80, CI 95% 1.20-1750, P < 0.001), high SOFA scores (OR 1.44, CI 95% 1.20-1.75, P = 0.001) and the isolation of high risk organisms including Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter spp, Stenotrophomonas spp and methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (OR 4.79, CI 95% 1.43-16.03, P = 0.01), were associated with increased mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia. The use of non-invasive ventilation was independently protective against mortality for patients with community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia (OR 0.35, CI 95% 0.18-0.68, P = 0.002). Mortality was similar for patients requiting both invasive and non-invasive ventilation and non-invasive ventilation alone (21% compared with 20% respectively, P = 0.56). Pneumonia risks and mortality predictors in Australian and New Zealand ICUs vary with pneumonia type. A history of alcoholism is a major risk factor for mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia, greater in magnitude than the mortality effect of immunosuppression in hospital-acquired pneumonia or community-acquired pneumonia. Non-invasive ventilation is associated with reduced ICU mortality. Clinical signs of consolidation worsen, while rationalising antibiotic therapy within three days of ICU admission improves mortality for community-acquired pneumonia patients.