Lifetime cover in private insurance markets

In the last few decades, private health insurance rates have declined in many countries. In countries and states with community rating, a major cause is adverse selection. In order to address age-based adverse selection, Australia has recently begun a novel approach which imposes stiff penalties for buying private insurance later in life, when expected costs are higher. In this paper, we analyze Australiarsquos Lifetime Cover in the context of a modified version of the Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance model (Rothschild and Stiglitz, 1976). We allow empirically-based probabilities to increase by age for low-risk types. The model highlights the shortcomings of the Australian plan. Based on empirically-based probabilities of illness, we predict that Lifetime Cover will not arrest adverse selection. The model has many policy implications for government regulation encouraging long-term health coverage.

Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias

The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.

Pathological complete response and residual DCIS following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast carcinoma

Patients who have no residual invasive cancer following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast carcinoma have a better overall survival than those with residual disease. Many classification systems assessing pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy include residual ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) only in the definition of pathological complete response. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether patients with residual DCIS only have the same prognosis as those with no residual invasive or in situ disease. A retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database identified 435 patients, who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy for operable breast cancer between February 1985 and February 2003. Of these, 30 (7%; 95% CI 5-9%) had no residual invasive disease or DCIS and 20 (5%; CI 3-7%) had residual DCIS only. With a median follow-up of 61 months, there was no statistical difference in disease-free survival, 80% (95% CI 60-90%) in those with no residual invasive or in situ disease and 61% (95% CI 35-80%) in those with DCIS only (P = 0.4). No significant difference in 5-year overall survival was observed, 93% (95% CI 75-98%) in those with no residual invasive or in situ disease and 82% (95% CI 52-94%) in those with DCIS only (P = 0.3). Due to the small number of patients and limited number of events in each group, it is not possible to draw definitive conclusions from this study. Further analyses of other databases are required to confirm our finding of no difference in disease-free and overall survival between patients with residual DCIS and those with no invasive or in situ disease following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer.

Lifetime Subsidies in Australian Private Health Insurance Markets with Community Rating

This paper considers the problem of inducing low-risk individuals of all ages to buy private health insurance in Australia. Our proposed subsidy scheme improves upon the age-based penalty scheme under the current "Australian Lifetime Cover" (LTC) scheme. We generate an alternative subsidy profile that obviates adverse selection in private health insurance markets with mandated, age-based, community rating. Our proposal is novel in that we generate subsidies that are both risk- and age-specific, based upon actual risk probabilities. The approach we take may prove useful in other jurisdictions where the extant law mandates community rating in private health insurance markets. Furthermore, our approach is useful in jurisdictions that seek to maintain private insurance to complement existing universal public systems.

Use of latent profile analysis to identify eating disorder phenotypes in an adult Australian twin cohort

Context: The relationships among the different eating disorders that exist in the community are poorly understood, especially for residual disorders in which bingeing or purging occurs in the absence of other behaviors. Objective: To examine a community sample for the number of mutually exclusive weight and eating profiles. Design: Data regarding lifetime eating disorder symptoms and weight range were submitted to a latent profile analysis. Profiles were compared regarding personality, current eating and weight, retrospectively reported life events, and lifetime depressive psychopathology. Setting: Longitudinal study among female twins from the Australian Twin Registry in whom eating was assessed by a telephone interview. Participants: A community sample of 1002 twins (individuals) who had participated in earlier waves of data collection. Main Outcome Measures: Number and clinical character of latent profiles. Results: The best fit was a 5-profile solution with women who were (1) of normal weight with few lifetime eating disorders (4.3%), (2) overweight (10.6% had a lifetime eating disorder), (3) underweight and generally had no eating disorders except for 5.3% who had restricting anorexia nervosa, (4) of low to normal weight (89.0% had a lifetime eating disorder), and (5) obese (37.0% had a lifetime eating disorder). Each profile contained more than 1 type of lifetime eating disorder except for the third profile. Women in the first and third profiles had the best functioning, with women in the fourth and fifth profiles having similarly poorer functioning. The women in the fourth group had a symptom profile distinctive from the other 4 groups in terms of severity; they were also more likely to have had lifetime major depression and suicidality. Conclusion: Lifetime weight ranges and the severity of eating disorder symptoms affected clustering more than the type of eating disorder symptom.

The effect of caudal block on functional residual capacity and ventilation homogeneity in healthy children

Caudal block results in a motor blockade that can reduce abdominal wall tension. This could interact with the balance between chest wall and lung recoil pressure and tension of the diaphragm, which determines the static resting volume of the lung. On this rationale, we hypothesised that caudal block causes an increase in functional residual capacity and ventilation distribution in anaesthetised children. Fifty-two healthy children (15-30 kg, 3-8 years of age) undergoing elective surgery with general anaesthesia and caudal block were studied and randomly allocated to two groups: caudal block or control. Following induction of anaesthesia, the first measurement was obtained in the supine position (baseline). All children were then turned to the left lateral position and patients in the caudal block group received a caudal block with bupivacaine. No intervention took place in the control group. After 15 nun in the supine position, the second assessment was performed. Functional residual capacity and parameters of ventilation distribution were calculated by a blinded reviewer. Functional residual capacity was similar at baseline in both groups. In the caudal block group, the capacity increased significantly (p < 0.0001) following caudal block, while in the control group, it remained unchanged. In both groups, parameters of ventilation distribution were consistent with the changes in functional residual capacity. Caudal block resulted in a significant increase in functional residual capacity and improvement in ventilation homogeneity in comparison with the control group. This indicates that caudal block might have a beneficial effect on gas exchange in anaesthetised, spontaneously breathing preschool-aged children with healthy lungs.

Lifetime suicide risk in major depression: sex and age determinants

Background: Recent work has demonstrated that the lifetime suicide risk for patients with DSM IV Major Depression cannot mathematically approximate the accepted figure of 15%. Gender and age significantly affect both the prevalence of major depression and suicide risk, Methods: Gender and age stratified calculations were made on the entire population of the USA in 1994 using a mathematical algorithm. Sex specific corrections for under-reporting were incorporated into the design. Results: The lifetime suicide risks for men and women were 7% and 1%, respectively. The combined risk was 3.4%. The male:female ratio for suicide risk in major depression was 10:1 for youths under 25, and 5.6:1 for adults. Conclusions: Suicide in major depression is predominantly a male problem, although complacency towards female sufferers is to be avoided. Diagnosis of major depression is of limited help in predicting suicide risk compared to case specific factors. The male experience of depression that leads to suicide is often not identified as a legitimate medical complaint by either sufferers or professionals. Increasing help-accessing by males is a priority. Clinical implications: Patients with a history of hospitalisation; comorbidity, especially for substance abuse; and who are male, require greater vigilance for suicide risk. It may be that for males che threshold for diagnosing and treating major depression needs to be lowered. Limitations: This research is based on a mathematical algorithm to approximate a life-long longitudinal study that identifies community cases of depression. Our findings therefore rely on the validity of the statistics used. Extrapolation is limited to populations with an actual suicide rate of 17/100,000 or less and a lifetime prevalence of major depression of 17% or more. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.