Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Development, reliability, and concurrent validity of the modified inventory of potential reconstructive needs

Documentation of burn sequelae can be a difficult and time-consuming task. To date a reliable and systematic format for recording postburn trauma is lacking. The purpose of this research was two-fold: first, to develop a Modified Inventory of Potential Reconstructive Needs from the original Inventory of Potential Reconstructive Needs to allow methodical documentation of functional and cosmetic burn sequelae in all body surface areas of children with burns and, second, to establish interrater reliability and concurrent validity of the instrument, thus allowing its clinical application. Two raters scored the Modified Inventory of Potential Reconstructive Needs on 41 children with a range of burns types and severity. Excellent interrater reliability was demonstrated for both total (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.996) and subsection inventory scores. Concurrent validity was also established with total scores showing strong positive correlations (0.73-0.76) with three indicators of burn severity. These findings provide initial support for the tool's clinical applicability, particularly in relation to rehabilitative planning and documentation.

Reliability of the input-output properties of the cortico-spinal pathway obtained from transcranial magnetic and electrical stimulation

The purpose of this experiment was to assess the test-retest reliability of input-output parameters of the cortico-spinal pathway derived from transcranial magnetic (TMS) and electrical (TES) stimulation at rest and during muscle contraction. Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) were recorded from the first dorsal interosseous muscle of eight individuals on three separate days. The intensity of TMS at rest was varied from 5% below threshold to the maximal output of the stimulator. During trials in which the muscle was active, TMS and TES intensities were selected that elicited MEPs of between 150 and 300 X at rest. MEPs were evoked while the participants exerted torques up to 50% of their maximum capacity. The relationship between MEP size and stimulus intensity at rest was sigmoidal (R-2 = 0.97). Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) ranged between 0.47 and 0.81 for the parameters of the sigmoid function. For the active trials, the slope and intercept of regression equations of MEP size on level of background contraction were obtained more reliably for TES (ICC = 0.63 and 0.78, respectively) than for TMS (ICC = 0.50 and 0.53, respectively), These results suggest that input-output parameters of the cortico-spinal pathway may be reliably obtained via transcranial stimulation during longitudinal investigations of cortico-spinal plasticity. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The reliability of immunohistochemistry as a prescreening method for the diagnosis of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) - Results of an international collaborative study

Hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer syndrome (HNPCC) is an autosomal dominant condition accounting for 2–5% of all colorectal carcinomas as well as a small subset of endometrial, upper urinary tract and other gastrointestinal cancers. An assay to detect the underlying defect in HNPCC, inactivation of a DNA mismatch repair enzyme, would be useful in identifying HNPCC probands. Monoclonal antibodies against hMLH1 and hMSH2, two DNA mismatch repair proteins which account for most HNPCC cancers, are commercially available. This study sought to investigate the potential utility of these antibodies in determining the expression status of these proteins in paraffin-embedded formalin-fixed tissue and to identify key technical protocol components associated with successful staining. A set of 20 colorectal carcinoma cases of known hMLH1 and hMSH2 mutation and expression status underwent immunoperoxidase staining at multiple institutions, each of which used their own technical protocol. Staining for hMSH2 was successful in most laboratories while staining for hMLH1 proved problematic in multiple labs. However, a significant minority of laboratories demonstrated excellent results including high discriminatory power with both monoclonal antibodies. These laboratories appropriately identified hMLH1 or hMSH2 inactivation with high sensitivity and specificity. The key protocol point associated with successful staining was an antigen retrieval step involving heat treatment and either EDTA or citrate buffer. This study demonstrates the potential utility of immunohistochemistry in detecting HNPCC probands and identifies key technical components for successful staining.

Contingent attentional capture or delayed allocation of attention?

Under certain circumstances, external stimuli will elicit an involuntary shift of spatial attention, referred to as attentional capture. According to the contingent involuntary orienting account (Folk, Remington, & Johnston, 1992), capture is conditioned by top-down factors that set attention to respond involuntarily to stimulus properties relevant to one's behavioral goals. Evidence for this comes from spatial cuing studies showing that a spatial cuing effect is observed only when cues have goal-relevant properties. Here, we examine alternative, decision-level explanations of the spatial cuing effect that attribute evidence of capture to postpresentation delays in the voluntary allocation of attention, rather than to on-line involuntary shifts in direct response to the cue. In three spatial cuing experiments, delayed-allocation accounts were tested by examining whether items at the cued location were preferentially processed. The experiments provide evidence that costs and benefits in spatial cuing experiments do reflect the on-line capture of attention. The implications of these results for models of attentional control are discussed.

Reliability factors in business software: volatility, requirements and end-users

Many business-oriented software applications are subject to frequent changes in requirements. This paper shows that, ceteris paribus, increases in the volatility of system requirements decrease the reliability of software. Further, systems that exhibit high volatility during the development phase are likely to have lower reliability during their operational phase. In addition to the typically higher volatility of requirements, end-users who specify the requirements of business-oriented systems are usually less technically oriented than people who specify the requirements of compilers, radar tracking systems or medical equipment. Hence, the characteristics of software reliability problems for business-oriented systems are likely to differ significantly from those of more technically oriented systems.