31 resultados para Relative risk aversion
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Background. Treatment of vivax malaria with primaquine prevents the relapse of infection from residual liver stages of the parasite. Inadequate dosage is related to a higher relapse risk. Methods: A comparison was made of vivax malaria relapse-prevention treatments with primaquine 22.5 mg or 30 mg daily for 14 days on 146 reports to the Australian Army Central Malaria Register. Results: The lower dose of primaquine was found to carry a relative risk of 6.63 for a relapse of vivax malaria compared with the higher dose. Conclusions:The available data presented here suggest that vivax malaria in this region is increasingly tolerant of the 22.5 mg daily treatment regimen of primaquine and that the greater dose of at least 30 mg daily is more effective.
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Objectives - Nitric oxide (NO) is critically important in the regulation of vascular tone and the inhibition of platelet aggregation. We have shown previously that patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) or stable angina pectoris have impaired platelet responses to NO donors when compared with normal subjects. We tested the hypotheses that platelet hyporesponsiveness to NO is a predictor of (1) cardiovascular readmission and/or death and (2) all-cause mortality in patients with ACS (unstable angina pectoris or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction). Methods and Results - Patients (n = 51) with ACS had evaluation of platelet aggregation within 24 hours of coronary care unit admission using impedance aggregometry. Patients were categorized as having normal (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation with the NO donor sodium nitroprusside; 10 mu mol/L; n = 18) or impaired (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation; n = 33) NO responses. We then compared the incidence of cardiovascular readmission and death during a median of 7 years of follow-up in these 2 groups. Using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, index event, postdischarge medical treatment, revascularization status, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, concurrent disease states, and cardiac risk factors, impaired NO responsiveness was associated with an increased risk of the combination of cardiovascular readmission and/or death (relative risk, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.03 to 7.10; P = 0.041) and all-cause mortality (relative risk, 6.3; 95% CI, 1.09 to 36.7; P = 0.033). Conclusions - Impaired platelet NO responsiveness is a novel, independent predictor of increased mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in patients with high-risk ACS.
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Background: Data on the long-term benefits of nonspecific disease management programs are limited. We performed a long-term follow-up of a previously published randomized trial. Methods: We compared all-cause mortality and recurrent hospitalization during median follow-up of 7.5 years in a heterogeneous cohort of patients with chronic illness initially exposed to a multidisciplinary, homebased intervention (HBI) (n = 260) or to usual postdischarge care (n = 268). Results: During follow-up, HBI had no impact on all-cause mortality (relative risk, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.35) or event-free survival from death or unplanned hospitalization (relative risk, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-1.24). Initial analysis suggested that HBI had only a marginal impact in reducing unplanned hospitalization, with 677 readmissions vs 824 for the usual care group (mean +/- SD rate, 0.72 +/- 0.96 vs 0.84 +/- 1.20 readmissions/patient per year; P = .08). When accounting for increased hospital activity in HBI patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease during follow-up for 2 years, post hoc analyses showed that HBI reduced readmissions by 14% within 2 years in patients without this condition (mean +/- SD rate, 0.54 +/- 0.72 vs 0.63 +/- 0.88 readmission/patient per year; P =. 04) and by 21% in all surviving patients within 3 to 8 years (mean +/- SD rate, 0.64 +/- 1.26 vs 0.81 +/- 1.61 readmissions/ patient per year; P =. 03). Overall, recurrent hospital costs were significantly lower ( 14%) in the HBI group (mean +/- SD, $ 823 +/- $ 1642 vs $ 960 +/- $ 1376 per patient per year; P =. 045). Conclusion: This unique study suggests that a nonspecific HBI provides long-term cost benefits in a range of chronic illnesses, except for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
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Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.
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Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of supplementation with zinc and vitamin A in Indigenous children hospitalised with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). Design: Randomised controlled, 2-by-2 factorial trial of supplementation with zinc and vitamin A. Setting and participants: 187 Indigenous children aged < 11 years hospitalised with 215 ALRI episodes at Alice Springs Hospital (April 2001 to July 2002). Interventions: Vitamin A was administered on Days 1 and 5 of admission at a dose of 50 000 IU (infants under 12 months), or 100 000 IU; and zinc sulfate was administered daily for 5 days at a daily dose of 20 mg (infants under 12 months) or 40 mg. Main outcome measure: Time to clinical recovery from fever and tachypnoea, duration of hospitalisation, and readmission for ALRI within 120 days. Results: There was no clinical benefit of supplementation with vitamin A, zinc or the two combined, with no significant difference between zinc and no-zinc, vitamin A and no-vitamin A or zinc + vitamin A and placebo groups in time to resolution of fever or tachypnoea, or duration of hospitalisation. Instead, we found increased morbidity; children given zinc had increased risk of readmission for ALRI within 120 days (relative risk, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.003–6.1). Conclusion: This study does not support the use of vitamin A or zinc supplementation in the management of ALRI requiring hospitalisation in Indigenous children living in remote areas. Even in populations with high rates of ALRI and poor living conditions, vitamin A and zinc therapy may not be useful. The effect of supplementation may depend on the prevalence of deficiency of these micronutrients in the population.
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PURPOSE: Research on determinants of an individual's pattern of response, considered as a profile across time, for cohort studies with multiple waves is limited. In this prospective population-based pregnancy cohort, we investigated baseline characteristics of participants after partitioning them according to their history of response to different interview waves. METHODS: Data are from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy 1981 to 1983 cohort, Brisbane, Australia. Complete baseline information was collected for 7223 of 7535 eligible individuals (95.9%). Follow-up occurred at 6 months, 5 years, and 14 years. Response rates were 93.0%, 72.5%, and 71.8%. Participants were allowed to leave and reenter the study. Participants were categorized as always, intermittent, or never responders. Intermittent responders were categorized further as leavers (responded at least once before leaving the study) or returners (left the study before reentering). RESULTS: Participants who always responded were older, more educated, married, Caucasian, and nonsmokers and had higher incomes. Intermittent responders shared similar baseline characteristics. Relative risk for being an intermittent responder was located between risks for always or never responding. CONCLUSIONS: Participants who left and reentered the study had baseline characteristics similar to participants who responded at least once and then left the study.
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Objectives The aims of the study were to describe the prevalence and associations of mental health disorder (MHD) among a cohort of HIV-infected patients attending the Victorian HIV/AIDS Service between 1984 and 2000, and to examine whether antiretroviral therapy use or mortality was influenced by MHD (defined as a record of service provision by psychiatric services on the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register). It was hypothesized that HIV-positive individuals with MHD would have poorer treatment outcomes, reduced responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and increased mortality compared with those without MHD. Methods This is a retrospective cohort of 2981 individuals (73% of the Victorian population diagnosed with HIV infection) captured on an HIV database which was electronically matched with the public Victorian Psychiatric Case Register (VPCR) (accounting for 95% of public system psychiatry service provision). The prevalence, dates and recorded specifics of mental health disorders at the time of the electronic match on 1 June 2000 are described. The association with recorded MHD, gender, age, AIDS illness, HIV exposure category, duration and type of antiviral therapy, treatment era (prior to 1986, post-1987 and pre-HAART, and post-HAART) on hospitalization and mortality at 1 September 2001 was assessed. Results Five hundred and twenty-five individuals (17.6% of the Victorian HIV-positive population) were recorded with MHD, most frequently coded as attributable to substance dependence/abuse or affective disorder. MHD was diagnosed prior to HIV in 33% and, of those diagnosed after HIV, 93.8% were recorded more than 1 year after the HIV diagnosis. Schizophrenia was recorded in 6% of the population with MHD. Hospitalizations for both psychiatric and nonpsychiatric illness were more frequent in those with MHD (relative risk 5.4; 95% confidence interval 3.7, 8.2). The total number of antiretrovirals used (median 6.4 agents vs 5.5 agents) was greater in those with MHD. When adjusted for antiretroviral treatment era, HIV exposure category, CD4 cell count and antiretroviral therapy, survival was not affected by MHD. Conclusions MHD is frequent in this population with HIV infection and is associated with increased healthcare utilization but not with reduced survival.
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Aim of study: As part of a Cochrane review of viscosupplementation in knee OA, randomised controlled trials (RCT) were reviewed to evaluate evidence for the efficacy of viscosupplementation with Hylan G-F 20 compared to placebo. Methods: Electronic searches were conducted of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Premedline, Current Contents, and CENTRAL. Human, RCT involving Hylan G-F 20 compared to placebo, published prior to 1Q2004, were included. Trials were selected and data extracted by two independent reviewers. Methodological quality was assessed with the Jadad criteria by two reviewers. Data on the OARSI and OMERACT core set clinical outcome measures were extracted where possible. Weighted mean difference (WMD), based on post-test scores, and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for continuous outcome measures and relative risk (RR) for dichotomous outcome measures. Results: Seven RCT met the inclusion criteria. Median methodological quality was 4 (range 1–5). A further two studies were only reported in abstract form (Jadad score Z 1) and contained insufficient extractable data for inclusion in the analysis. Nine RCT, which compared Hylan G-F 20 to other interventions such as intra-articular corticosteroid, physiotherapy, NSAID, appropriate care, intra-articular gaseous oxygen and other hyaluronan, are not reported here. Twenty-three studies failed to meet inclusion criteria and were excluded. Hylan G-F 20 was more efficacious than placebo at 1–4 weeks post-injection for pain on weight-bearing WMD (random effects [RE]) 13 mm on a 0–100 mm VAS (P Z 0.002) based on 6 RCT. This difference was even greater at 5–13 weeks post-injection, 22 m (RE) (P Z 0.001) based on 5 RCT, and at 14–6 weeks postinjection, 21 m (RE) (P Z 0.006) based on 4 RCT. Hylan G-F 20 was more efficacious than placebo at 1–4 weeks post-injection for pain at night, WMD 7 mm on a 0–100 mm VAS (P Z 0.003) based on 5 RCT. This difference was even greater at 5–13 weeks post-injection, 11 mm (P Z 0.008) based on 4 RCT, and at 14–26 weeks post-injection, 17 mm (P ! 0.00001) based on 3 RCT. There was no significant difference (WMD 8 mm) between Hylan G-F 20 C oral placebo and arthrocentesis C oral placebo at 5–13 weeks post-injection for WOMAC Pain, but Hylan G-F 20 C oral placebo was more efficacious than arthrocentesis C oral placebo for WOMAC Function, WMD 9 mm on a 0–100 mm VAS (P Z 0.01) (Dickson, 2001). Hylan G-F 20 was more effective than placebo at 1–4 weeks postinjection for the variable designed treatment efficacy, WMD 22 mm on a 0–100 mm VAS (P ! 0.00001) based on improvement in 4 RCT. This difference was even greater at 5–13 weeks post injection, 35 mm (P ! 0.00001). Conclusions: Evidence from this updated Cochrane review supports the superior efficacy of Hylan G-F 20 compared to placebo on weight-bearing pain, night pain, function and treatment efficacy in the treatment of knee OA.
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OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic utility of brachial artery reactivity (BAR) in patients at risk of cardiovascular events. BACKGROUND Impaired flow-mediated vasodilation measured by BAR is a marker of endothelial dysfunction. Brachial artery reactivity is influenced by risk factors and is responsive to various pharmacological and other treatments. However, its prognostic importance is uncertain, especially relative to other predictors of outcome. METHODS A total of 444 patients were prospectively enrolled to undergo BAR and follow-up. These patients were at risk of cardiovascular events, based on the presence of risk factors or known or suspected cardiovascular disease. We took a full clinical history, performed BAR, and obtained carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and left ventricular mass and ejection fraction. Patients were followed up for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the independent association of investigation variables on outcomes. RESULTS The patients exhibited abnormal BAR (5.2 +/- 6.1% [mean +/- SD]) but showed normal nitrate-mediated dilation (9.9 +/- 7.2%) and normal mean IMT (0.67 +/- 0.12 mm [average]). Forty-nine deaths occurred over the median follow-up period of 24 months (interquartile range 10 to 34). Patients in the lowest tertile group of BAR (<2%) had significantly more events than those in the combined group of highest and mid-tertiles (p = 0.029, log-rank test). However, mean IMT (rather than flow-mediated dilation) was the vascular factor independently associated with mortality, even in the subgroup (n = 271) with no coronary artery disease and low risk. CONCLUSIONS Brachial artery reactivity is lower in patients with events, but is not an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes in this cohort of patients. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.
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This study examined the oral sensitivity and feeding skills of low-risk pre-term infants at 11-17 months corrected age. Twenty pre-term infants (PT) born between 32 and 37 weeks at birth without any medical comorbidities were assessed. All of this PT group received supplemental nasogastric (NG) tube feeds during their birth-stay in hospital. A matched control group of 10 healthy full-term infants (FT) was also assessed. Oral sensitivity and feeding skills were assessed during a typical mealtime using the Royal Children's Hospital Oral Sensitivity Checklist (OSC) and the Pre-Speech Assessment Scale (PSAS). Results demonstrated that, at 11-17 months corrected age, the PT group displayed significantly more behaviours suggestive of altered oral sensitivity and facial defensiveness, and a trend of more delayed feeding development than the FT group. Further, results demonstrated that, relative to the FT group, pre-term infants who received greater than 3 weeks of NG feeding (PT>3NG) displayed significantly more facial defensive behaviour, and displayed significant delays across more aspects of their feeding development than pre-term infants who received less than 2 weeks of NG feeding (PT
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Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.
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Sleep-disordered breathing and excessive sleepiness may be more common in commercial vehicle drivers than in the general population. The relative importance of factors causing excessive sleepiness and accidents in this population remains unclear. We measured the prevalence of excessive sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing and assessed accident risk factors in 2,342 respondents to a questionnaire distributed to a random sample of 3,268 Australian commercial vehicle drivers and another 161 drivers among 244 invited to undergo polysomnography. More than half (59.6%) of drivers had sleep-disordered breathing and 15.8% had obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Twenty-four percent of drivers had excessive sleepiness. Increasing sleepiness was related to an increased accident risk. The sleepiest 5% of drivers on the Epworth Sleepiness Scale and Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire had an in-creased risk of an accident (odds ratio [OR] 1.91, p = 0.02 and OR 2.23, p < 0.01, respectively) and multiple accidents (OR 2.67, p < 0.01 and OR 2.39, p = 0.01), adjusted for established risk factors. There was an increased accident risk with narcotic analgesic use (OR 2.40, p < 0.01) and antihistamine use (OR 3.44, p = 0.04). Chronic excessive sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing are common in Australian commercial vehicle drivers. Accident risk was related to increasing chronic sleepiness and antihistamine and narcotic analgesic use.
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Background: Indigenous Australians are at high risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Carotid artery intimal medial thickness (CIMT) and brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) are ultrasound imaging based surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk. This study examines the relative contributions of traditional cardiovascular risk factors on CIMT and FMD in adult Indigenous Australians with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: One hundred and nineteen Indigenous Australians were recruited. Physical and biochemical markers of cardiovascular risk, together with CIMT and FMD were meausred for all subjects. Results: Fifty-three Indigenous Australians subjects (45%) had type 2 diabetes mellitus. There was a significantly greater mean CIMT in diabetic versus non-diabetic subjects (p = 0.049). In the non-diabetic group with non-parametric analyses, there were significant correlations between CIMT and: age (r = 0.64, p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (r = 0.47, p < 0.001) and non-smokers (r = -0.30, p = 0.018). In the diabetic group, non-parametric analysis showed correlations between CIMT, age (r = 0.36, p = 0.009) and duration of diabetes (r = 0.30, p = 0.035) only. Adjusting forage, sex, smoking and history of cardiovascular disease, Hb(A1c) became the sole significant correlate of CIMT (r = 0.35,p = 0.01) in the diabetic group. In non-parametric analysis, age was the sole significant correlate of FMD (r = -0.31,p = 0.013), and only in non-diabetic subjects. Linear regression analysis showed significant associations between CIMT and age (t = 4.6,p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (t = 2.6, p = 0.010) and Hb(A1c) (t = 2.6, p = 0.012), smoking (t = 2.1, p = 0.04) and fasting LDL-cholesterol (t = 2.1, p = 0.04). There were no significant associations between FMD and examined cardiovascular risk factors with linear regression analysis Conclusions: CIMT appears to be a useful surrogate marker of cardiovascular risk in this sample of Indigenous Australian subjects, correlating better than FMD with established cardiovascular risk factors. A lifestyle intervention programme may alleviate the burden of cardiovascular disease in Indigenous Australians by reducing central obesity, lowering blood pressure, correcting dyslipidaemia and improving glycaemic control. CIMT may prove to be a useful tool to assess efficacy of such an intervention programme. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE MRI) is the most sensitive tool for screening women who are at high familial risk of breast cancer. Our aim in this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of X-ray mammography (XRM), CE MRI or both strategies combined. In total, 649 women were enrolled in the MARIBS study and screened with both CE MRI and mammography resulting in 1881 screens and 1-7 individual annual screening events. Women aged 35-49 years at high risk of breast cancer, either because they have a strong family history of breast cancer or are tested carriers of a BRCA1, BRCA2 or TP53 mutation or are at a 50% risk of having inherited such a mutation, were recruited from 22 centres and offered annual MRI and XRM for between 2 and 7 years. Information on the number and type of further investigations was collected and specifically calculated unit costs were used to calculate the incremental cost per cancer detected. The numbers of cancer detected was 13 for mammography, 27 for CE MRI and 33 for mammography and CE MRI combined. In the subgroup of BRCA1 (BRCA2) mutation carriers or of women having a first degree relative with a mutation in BRCA1 (BRCA2) corresponding numbers were 3 (6), 12 (7) and 12 (11), respectively. For all women, the incremental cost per cancer detected with CE MRI and mammography combined was 28 pound 284 compared to mammography. When only BRCA1 or the BRCA2 groups were considered, this cost would be reduced to 11 pound 731 (CE MRI vs mammography) and 15 pound 302 (CE MRI and mammography vs mammography). Results were most sensitive to the unit cost estimate for a CE MRI screening test. Contrast-enhanced MRI might be a cost-effective screening modality for women at high risk, particularly for the BRCA1 and BRCA2 subgroups. Further work is needed to assess the impact of screening on mortality and health-related quality of life.
“Doing” Gender in Context: Household Bargaining and Risk of Divorce in Germany and the United States
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Gender relations remain embedded in their sociopolitical context. Compared here using event-history analysis is how household divisions of paid and unpaid labor affect marital stability in the former West Germany, where policy reinforced male breadwinner families, and the United States, where policy remains silent regarding the private sphere. In Germany, any moves away from separate gendered spheres in terms of either wives' relative earnings or husbands' relative participation in housework increase the risk of divorce. In the United States, however, the more stable couples are those that adapt by displaying greater gender equity. These results highlight that policy shapes how gender gets done in the intimate sphere, and that reinforcement of a gendered division of labor may be detrimental to marital stability.