Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping intertidal habitats and an evaluation of their conservation status in Queensland, Australia

The goal of biodiversity conservation has been described as the conservation of diversity at three levels: ecosystem, species and genetic diversity. Developing a representative system of marine protected areas (MPAs) is considered an effective way to achieve this goal in the marine environment. In the absence of detailed information relating to biological distributions there has been increasing use of biodiversity surrogates to determine MPA priorities at regional levels. The development of biodiversity surrogates at fine scales (i.e. habitats) will have an increasingly important role in the identification of sites that will contribute to a representative system of MPAs. This is because it will increase the likelihood that the system will adequately achieve biodiversity objectives by ensuring protection of a greater range of habitats and species. This article provides an explanation of an intertidal shoreline habitat surrogate used to describe 24,216km of Queensland's coastline. The protective status of intertidal habitats was evaluated to assist with designing a representative system of intertidal MPAs. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structure of CcmG/DsbE at 1.14 angstrom resolution: High-fidelity reducing activity in an indiscriminately oxidizing environment

CcmG is unlike other periplasmic thioredoxin (TRX)like proteins in that it has a specific reducing activity in an oxidizing environment and a high fidelity of interaction. These two unusual properties are required for its role in c-type cytochrome maturation. The crystal structure of CcmG reveals a modified TRX fold with an unusually acidic active site and a groove formed from two inserts in the fold. Deletion of one of the groove-forming inserts disrupts c-type cytochrome formation. Two unique structural features of CcmG-an acidic active site and an adjacent groove-appear to be necessary to convert an indiscriminately binding scaffold, the TRX fold, into a highly specific redox protein.

Winter intervention against Aedes aegypti (Diptera : Culicidae) larvae in subterranean habitats slows surface recolonization in summer

At semiarid Charters Towers, north Queensland, Australia, the importance of Aedes aegypti (L.) in wells was assessed in relation to the colonization of surface habitats during the wet season. From April to July 1999, 10 wells (five positive for Ae. aegypti) were monitored to assess their status and larvae population numbers therein. All surface containers located within a 100 m radius of each well were removed, treated with s-methoprene or sealed to prevent the utilization of these containers by mosquitoes. These inner cores were surrounded by outer zones for a further 100 m in which surface containers were left untreated but all subterranean habitats were treated. Ovitraps were monitored monthly in the inner cores for 36 wk from August 1999 to April 2000 and differences in the proportions of ovitraps positive for Ae. aegypti and Ochlerotatus notoscriptus (Skuse) were analyzed by logistic regression. Analysis of the proportions of ovitraps positive for Ae. aegypti near positive wells indicated significantly greater colonization from November to March (the wet season), compared with those situated near Ae. aegypti negative wells. As Oc. notoscriptus were not produced from subterranean sites, comparisons of the proportions of ovitraps positive for Oc. notoscriptus in positive and negative inner cores provided an indication of the relative productivity of the uncontrolled surface containers in the outer zones. Differences in the utililization of ovitraps by Oc. notoscriptus among positive and negative cores were observed during only one month (March), when oviposition was greater in ovitraps in the negative cores, compared with the positive cores. Best subsets linear regression analysis of the proportion of ovitraps positive for Ae. aegypti against meteorological variables (rainfall, mean wind speed, mean relative humidity, mean minimum, and maximum temperature) during the week of ovitrapping indicated that minimum temperature and wind speed accounted for 63.4% of the variability. This study confirms that for semiarid towns such as Charters Towers, the practice of treating a relatively small number of key subterranean habitats during winter will significantly affect Ae. aegypti recolonization of surface container habitats during summer, the period of greatest risk for dengue.

Adaptation of rainbow fish to lake and stream habitats

Fish occupy a range of hydrological habitats that exert different demands on locomotor performance. We examined replicate natural populations of the rainbow fishes Melanotaenia eachamensis and M. duboulayi to determine if colonization of low-velocity (lake) habitats by fish from high-velocity (stream) habitats resulted in adaptation of locomotor morphology and performance. Relative to stream conspecifics, lake fish had more posteriorly positioned first dorsal and pelvic fins, and shorter second dorsal fin bases. Habitat dimorphism observed between wild-caught fish was determined to be heritable as it was retained in M. eachamensis offspring raised in a common garden. Repeated evolution of the same heritable phenotype in independently derived populations indicated body shape divergence was a consequence of natural selection. Morphological divergence between hydrological habitats did not support a priori expectations of deeper bodies and caudal peduncles in lake fish. However, observed divergence in fin positioning was consistent with a family-wide association between habitat and morphology, and with empirical studies on other fish species. As predicted, decreased demand for sustained swimming in takes resulted in a reduction in caudal red muscle area of lake fish relative to their stream counterparts. Melanotaenia duboulayi lake fish also had slower sustained swimming speeds (U-crit) than stream conspecifics. In M. eachamensis, habitat affected U-crit of males and females differently. Specifically, females exhibited the pattern observed in M. duboulayi (lake fish had faster U-crit than stream fish), but the opposite association was observed in males (stream males had slower Ucrit than lake males). Stream M. eachamensis also exhibited a reversed pattern of sexual dimorphism in U-crit (males slower than females) relative to all other groups (males faster than females). We suggest that M. eachamensis males from streams responded to factors other than water velocity. Although replication of muscle and U,,it phenotypes across same habitat populations within and/or among species was suggestive of adaptation, the common garden experiment did not confirm a genetic basis to these associations. Kinematic studies should consider the effect of the position and base length of dorsal fins.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Young children's understanding of oddity: reducing complexity by simple oddity and "most different" strategies

Children aged between 3 and 7 years were taught simple and dimension-abstracted oddity discrimination using learning-set training techniques, in which isomorphic problems with varying content were presented with verbal explanation and feedback. Following the training phase, simple oddity (SO), dimension-abstracted oddity with one or two irrelevant dimensions, and non-oddity (NO) tasks were presented (without feedback) to determine the basis of solution. Although dimension-abstracted oddity requires discrimination based on a stimulus that is different from the others, which are all the same as each other on the relevant dimension, this was not the major strategy. The data were more consistent with use of a simple oddity strategy by 3- to 4-year-olds, and a most different strategy by 6- to 7-year-olds. These strategies are interpreted as reducing task complexity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Geological and trace element evidence for a marine sedimentary environment of deposition and biogenicity of 3.45 Ga stromatolitic carbonates in the Pilbara Craton, and support for a reducing Archaean ocean

Bedded carbonate rocks from the 3.45 Ga Warrawoona Group, Pilbara Craton, contain structures that have been regarded either as the oldest known stromatolites or as abiotic hydrothermal deposits. We present new field and petrological observations and high-precision REE + Y data from the carbonates in order to test the origin of the deposits. Trace element geochemistry from a number of laminated stromatolitic dolomite samples of the c. 3.40 Ga Strelley Pool Chert conclusively shows that they precipitated from anoxic seawater, probably in a very shallow environment consistent with previous sedimentological observations. Edge-wise conglomerates in troughs between stromatolites and widespread cross-stratification provide additional evidence of stromatolite construction, at least partly, from layers of particulate sediment, rather than solely from rigid crusts. Accumulation of particulate sediment on steep stromatolite sides in a high-energy environment suggests organic binding of the surface. Relative and absolute REE + Y contents are exactly comparable with Late Archaean microbial carbonates of widely agreed biological origin. Ankerite from a unit of bedded ankerite–chert couplets from near the top of the stratigraphically older (3.49 Ga) Dresser Formation, which immediately underlies wrinkly stromatolites with small, broad, low-amplitude domes, also precipitated from anoxic seawater. The REE + Y data of carbonates from the Strelley Pool Chert and Dresser Formation contrast strongly with those from siderite layers in a jasper–siderite–Fe-chlorite banded iron-formation from the base of the Panorama Formation (3.45 Ga), which is clearly hydrothermal in origin. The geochemical results, together with sedimentological data, strongly support: (1) deposition of Dresser Formation and Strelley Pool Chert carbonates from Archaean seawater, in part as particulate carbonate sediment; (2) biogenicity of the stromatolitic carbonates; (3) a reducing Archaean atmosphere; (4) ongoing extensive terrestrial erosion prior to ∼3.45 Ga.

Reducing the time period of steady state does not affect the accuracy of energy expenditure measurements by indirect calorimetry

Achievement of steady state during indirect calorimetry measurements of resting energy expenditure (REE) is necessary to reduce error and ensure accuracy in the measurement. Steady state is often defined as 5 consecutive min (5-min SS) during which oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production vary by +/-10%. These criteria, however, are stringent and often difficult to satisfy. This study aimed to assess whether reducing the time period for steady state (4-min SS or 3-min SS) produced measurements of REE that were significantly different from 5-min SS. REE was measured with the use of open-circuit indirect calorimetry in 39 subjects, of whom only 21 (54%) met the 5-min SS criteria. In these 21 subjects, median biases in REE between 5-min SS and 4-min SS and between 5-min SS and 3-min SS were 0.1 and 0.01%, respectively. For individuals, 4-min SS measured REE within a clinically acceptable range of +/-2% of 5-min SS, whereas 3-min SS measured REE within a range of -2-3% of 5-min SS. Harris-Benedict prediction equations estimated REE for individuals within +/-20-30% of 5-min SS. Reducing the time period of steady state to 4 min produced measurements of REE for individuals that were within clinically acceptable, predetermined limits. The limits of agreement for 3-min SS fell outside the predefined limits of +/-2%; however, both 4-min SS and 3-min SS criteria greatly increased the proportion of subjects who satisfied steady state within smaller limits than would be achieved if relying on prediction equations.