Opportunity cost of ad hoc marine reserve design decisions: an example from South Australia

Like many states and territories, South Australia has a legacy of marine reserves considered to be inadequate to meet current conservation objectives. In this paper we configured exploratory marine reserve systems, using the software MARXAN, to examine how efficiently South Australia's existing marine reserves contribute to quantitative biodiversity conservation targets. Our aim was to compare marine reserve systems that retain South Australia's existing marine reserves with reserve systems that are free to either ignore or incorporate them. We devised a new interpretation of irreplaceability to identify planning units selected more than could be expected from chance alone. This is measured by comparing the observed selection frequency for an individual planning unit with a predicted selection frequency distribution. Knowing which sites make a valuable contribution to efficient marine reserve system design allows us to determine how well South Australia's existing reserves contribute to reservation goals when representation targets are set at 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 and 50% of conservation features. Existing marine reserves that tail to contribute to efficient marine reserve systems constitute 'opportunity costs'. We found that despite spanning less than 4% of South Australian state waters, locking in the existing ad hoc marine reserves presented considerable opportunity costs. Even with representation targets set at 50%, more than halt of South Australia's existing marine reserves were selected randomly or less in efficient marine reserve systems. Hence, ad hoc marine reserve systems are likely to be inefficient and may compromise effective conservation of marine biodiversity.

Segmenting the market of West Australian senior tourists using an artificial neural network

Measuring perceptions of customers can be a major problem for marketers of tourism and travel services. Much of the problem is to determine which attributes carry most weight in the purchasing decision. Older travellers weigh many travel features before making their travel decisions. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of neural network methodology and provides a research technique that assesses the weighting of different attributes and uses an unsupervised neural network model to describe a consumer-product relationship. The development of this rich class of models was inspired by the neural architecture of the human brain. These models mathematically emulate the neurophysical structure and decision making of the human brain, and, from a statistical perspective, are closely related to generalised linear models. Artificial neural networks or neural networks are, however, nonlinear and do not require the same restrictive assumptions about the relationship between the independent variables and dependent variables. Using neural networks is one way to determine what trade-offs older travellers make as they decide their travel plans. The sample of this study is from a syndicated data source of 200 valid cases from Western Australia. From senior groups, active learner, relaxed family body, careful participants and elementary vacation were identified and discussed. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Purchasing Power Parities for Industry Comparisons Using Weighted Elteto-Koves-Szulc (EKS) Methods

This study has three main objectives. First, it develops a generalization of the commonly used EKS method to multilateral price comparisons. It is shown that the EKS system can be generalized so that weights can be attached to each of the link comparisons used in the EKS computations. These weights can account for differing levels of reliability of the underlying binary comparisons. Second, various reliability measures and corresponding weighting schemes are presented and their merits discussed. Finally, these new methods are applied to an international data set of manufacturing prices from the ICOP project. Although theoretically superior, it appears that the empirical impact of the weighted EKS method is generally small compared to the unweighted EKS. It is also found that this impact is larger when it is applied at lower levels of aggregation. Finally, the importance of using sector specific PPPs in assessing relative levels of manufacturing productivity is indicated.

Mate choice in the brown thornbill (Acanthiza pusilla): are settlement decisions, divorce and extrapair mating complementary strategies?

In socially monogamous birds, females may express mate preferences when they first select a breeding partner, through divorce and subsequent breeding dispersal to a new partner and through extrapair mating. We examined settlement patterns, divorce and breeding dispersal in a sedentary Australian passerine, the brown thornbill (Acanthiza pusilla), in relation to two traits known to influence extrapair paternity (male age and male size). Settlement decisions, divorce and territory switching behaviour were all female strategies that reduced their likelihood of breeding with 1-year-old males. Females preferred to settle in territories with 2+ -year-old males, were more likely to divorce 1-year-old males, and only switched territories if they had an opportunity to form a new pair bond with an old male. In contrast, female settlement and divorce decisions were not influenced by male size. Female thornbills obtain a direct benefit from preferring older males as social mates because breeding success improves with male age in brown thornbills. Nevertheless, divorce rates in this species were low (14% of pair bonds were terminated by divorce), and individuals rarely switched territories following the death of a mate. Both of these mating strategies appeared to be primarily constrained by the distance adults moved to initiate a new pair bond (1-2 territories) and by the limited availability of unpaired older males in the immediate neighbourhood.

Predictive genetic test decisions for Huntington's disease: context, appraisal and new moral imperatives

Predictive testing is one of the new genetic technologies which, in conjunction with developing fields such as pharmacogenomics, promises many benefits for preventive and population health. Understanding how individuals appraise and make genetic test decisions is increasingly relevant as the technology expands. Lay understandings of genetic risk and test decision-making, located within holistic life frameworks including family or kin relationships, may vary considerably from clinical representations of these phenomena. The predictive test for Huntington's disease (HD), whilst specific to a single-gene, serious, mature-onset but currently untreatable disorder, is regarded as a model in this context. This paper reports upon a qualitative Australian study which investigated predictive test decision-making by individuals at risk for HD, the contexts of their decisions and the appraisals which underpinned them. In-depth interviews were conducted in Australia with 16 individuals at 50% risk for HD, with variation across testing decisions, gender, age and selected characteristics. Findings suggested predictive testing was regarded as a significant life decision with important implications for self and others, while the right not to know genetic status was staunchly and unanimously defended. Multiple contexts of reference were identified within which test decisions were located, including intra- and inter-personal frameworks, family history and experience of HID, and temporality. Participants used two main criteria in appraising test options: perceived value of, or need for the test information, for self and/or significant others, and degree to which such information could be tolerated and managed, short and long-term, by self and/or others. Selected moral and ethical considerations involved in decision-making are examined, as well as the clinical and socio-political contexts in which predictive testing is located. The paper argues that psychosocial vulnerabilities generated by the availability of testing technologies and exacerbated by policy imperatives towards individual responsibility and self-governance should be addressed at broader societal levels. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physicians' attitudes towards end-of-life decisions: a comparison between seven countries

In the context of an European collaborative research project (EURELD), a study on attitudes towards medical end-of-life decisions was conducted among physicians in Belgium, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. Australia also joined the consortium. A written questionnaire with structured questions was sent to practising physicians from specialties frequently involved in the care of dying patients. 10,139 questionnaires were studied. Response rate was equal to or larger than 50% in all countries except Italy (39%). Apart from general agreement with respect to the alleviation of pain and symptoms with possible life-shortening effect, there was large variation in support-between and within countries-for medical decision that may result in the hastening of death. A principal component factor analysis found that 58% of the variance of the responses is explained by four factors. 'Country' explained the largest part of the variation of the standardized factor scores. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do rural consumers expect a prescription from their GP visit? Investigation of patients' expectations for a prescription and doctors' prescribing decisions in rural Australia

Objective: To assess patients’ expectation for receiving a prescription and GPs’ perceptions of patient expectation for a prescription. Design: Matched questionnaire study completed by patients and GPs. Setting: Seven general practices in rural Queensland, Australia. Subjects: The subjects were 481 patients consulting 17 GPs. Main outcome measures: Patients’ expectation for receiving a prescription and GPs’ perceptions of patients’ expectation. Results: Ideal expectation (hope) for a prescription was expressed by 57% (274/481) of patients. Sixty-six per cent (313/481) thought it was likely that the doctor would actually give them a prescription. Doctors accurately predicted hope or lack of hope for a prescription in 65% (314/481) of consultations, but were inaccurate in 19% (93/481). A prescription was written in 55% of consultations. No increase in patients’ expectation, doctors’ perceptions of expectation, or decision to prescribe were detected for patients living a greater distance from the doctors. Conclusions: Rural patients demonstrated similar rates of hope for a prescription to those found in previous urban studies. Rural doctors seem to be similarly ‘accurate’ and ‘inaccurate’ in determining patients’ expectations. Rates of prescribing were comparable to urban rates. Distance was not found to increase the level of patient expectation, affect the doctors’ perception or to influence the decision to prescribe.

Purchasing behaviour for non-prescription medicines

Background: The non-prescription medicine, market is constantly challenges. With changes to scheduling and market dynamics, a need for current Australian data on medicines purchasing behaviour was identified. Objectives: This survey aimed to report on the purchasing behaviour of non-prescription medicine customers, the medicines bought and influences on medicine sales. Methods: Researchers were stationed in 15 community pharmacies in southeast Queensland during mid-August 2004. Interview and observational data were collected for all eligible medicine purchases -over approximately 35 hours per pharmacy. Results: Data were collected for 3017 medicines purchased by 2583 customers. Most purchases were made by females (65%) and customers aged 26-35 years (25.8%). Pharmacy assistants alone provided advice in 58% of sales. Two thirds of purchases were for self use. In two thirds of cases, customers had a particular brand in mind; this was highly correlated with previous purchases. Pharmacy staff were highly influential in first time purchases. Conclusions: This study reports a high level of involvement and influence of pharmacy staff in medicine selection.

Normative influence and rational conflict decisions: Group norms and cost-benefit analyses for intergroup behavior

The present paper articulates a model in which ingroup and outgroup norms inform 'rational' decision-making (cost-benefit analysis) for conflict behaviors. Norms influence perceptions of the consequences of the behavior, and individuals may thus strategically conform to or violate norms in order to acquire benefits and avoid costs. Two studies demonstrate these processes in the context of conflict in Quebec. In the first study, Anglophones' perceptions of Francophone and Anglophone norms for pro-English behaviors predicted evaluations of the benefits and costs of the behaviors, and these cost-benefit evaluations in turn mediated the norm-intention links for both group norms. In the second study, a manipulated focus on supportive versus hostile ingroup and outgroup norms also predicted cost-benefit evaluations, which mediated the norm-intention relationships. The studies support a model of strategic conflict choices in which group norms inform, rather than suppress, rational expectancy value processes. Implications for theories of decision-making and normative influence are discussed.

Predictive genetic test decisions for Huntington's disease: Elucidating the test/no-test dichotomy

Predictive genetic testing for serious, mature-onset genetic illness represents a unique context in health decision making. This article presents findings from an exploratory qualitative Australian-based study into the decision making of individuals at risk for Huntington's disease (HD) with regard to predictive genetic testing. Sixteen in-depth interviews were conducted with a range of at-risk individuals. Data analysis revealed four discrete decision-making positions rather than a 'to test' or not to test' dichotomy. A conceptual dimension of (non-)openness and (non-)engagement characterized the various decisions. Processes of decision making and a concept of 'test readiness' were identified. Findings from this research, while not generalizable, are discussed in relation to theoretical frameworks and stage models of health decision making, as well as possible clinical implications.