Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Milk Proteomics

Milk proteins have been studied continuously for over 50 years. Knowledge of this complex protein system has evolved incrementally in recent decades, largely coinciding with advances in technology. Proteomics and associated technologies have the potential to facilitate further advances in our knowledge of milk proteins. Proteomics allows for the detection, identification and characterization of milk proteins. More importantly, proteomics facilitates the analysis of large numbers of milk proteins simultaneously. In the first part of this review we provide a description of the key techniques used within proteomic methodologies, with an emphasis on their general uses within proteomics. In the second part we summarize recent applications of proteomics to milk proteins and highlight the potential for new and rapid advances in the analysis of milk proteins. In particular, we emphasise the effectiveness of two-dimensional gel electrophoresis in combination with various mass spectrometry techniques for the detailed characterization of milk proteins. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of parabens on the mechanosensitive channels of E. coli

Parabens are alkyl esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid used as preservatives in a wide range of food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic products (Soni et al. Food Chem. Toxicol. 39:513-532, 2001). Despite their common use for over 50 years, their mechanism of action is still unclear. In this study we examined the effects of ethyl and propyl paraben, on gating of the E. coli mechanosensitive channel of large conductance (MscL) reconstituted into azolectin liposomes. We found that propyl and ethyl paraben spontaneously activate MscL. Moreover, the addition of propyl paraben caused an increase in MscL activity and the lowering Of P-1/2, the pressure at which the MscL was opened 50% of the time, the AGO, the free energy required to open the MscL, and the parameter a, which describes the channel sensitivity to pressure. In addition, in silico studies showed that propyl paraben binds to the channel gate of the MscL. The mechanosensitive channel of small conductance was also found to be spontaneously activated by parabens. In summary, our study indicates that one of the previously unidentified mechanisms of action of parabens as antimicrobial agents is via an interaction with the mechanosensitive channels to upset the osmotic gradients in bacteria.

Familial aggregation of human infection with Schistosoma japonicum in the Poyang Lake region, China

Despite the success of extensive control measures that have been implemented in China for over 50 years, the number of individuals infected with Schistosoma japonicum remains high in the existing endemic areas. A variance components analysis was undertaken to estimate the heritable and environmental components that contribute to S. japonicum infection in the Poyang Lake region of Jiangxi Province, PR China. The total target population was 3148 from four separate administrative villages. Two thousand seven hundred and five of these comprised 400 families ranging in size from 3 to 188. After adjustments were made for gender, water contact and past history of having had schistosomiasis, the heritable component was estimated to account for as much as 58% of the phenotype variation under the polygenic model. Household was not shown to be an important environmental factor. Incorporating village effects indicated that the results were valid for the total population. We conclude that genetic heritability in this region is high and plays an important role in determining risk of infection with S. japonicum. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits, harms and costs of screening mammography in women 70 years and over: a systematic review

Objective: To assess the (i) benefits, (ii) harms and (iii) costs of continuing mammographic screening for women 70 years and over. Data sources and synthesis: (i) We conducted a MEDLINE search (1966 - July 2000) for decision-analytic models estimating life-expectancy gains from screening in older women. The five studies meeting the inclusion criteria were critically appraised using standard criteria. We estimated relative benefit from each model's estimate of effectiveness of screening in older women relative to that in women aged 50-69 years using the same model. (ii) With data from BreastScreen Queensland, we constructed balance sheets of the consequences of screening for women in 10-year age groups (40-49 to 80-89 years), and (iii) we used a validated model to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of extending screening to women 70 years and over. Results: For women aged 70-79 years, the relative benefit was estimated as 40%-72%, and 18%-62% with adjustment for the impact of screening on quality of life. For women over 80 years the relative benefit was about a third, and with quality-of-life adjustment only 14%, that in women aged 50-69 years. (ii) Of 10 000 Australian women participating in ongoing screening, about 400 are recalled for further testing, and, depending on age, about 70-112 undergo biopsy and about 19-80 cancers are detected. (iii) Cost-effectiveness estimates for extending the upper age limit for mammographic screening from 69 to 79 years range from $8119 to $27 751 per quality-adjusted life-year saved, which compares favourably with extending screening to women aged 40-49 years (estimated at between $24 000 and $65 000 per life-year saved). Conclusions: Women 70 years and over, in consultation with their healthcare providers, may want to decide for themselves whether to continue mammographic screening. Decision-support materials are needed for women in this age group.

Do socioeconomic gradients in women's health widen over time and with age

A population-based study was conducted to investigate changes over time in women's well-being and health service use by socio-cconomic status and whether these varied by age. Data from 12,328 mid-age women (aged 45-50 years in 1996) and 10,430 older women (aged 70-75 years) from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were analysed. The main outcome measures were changes in the eight dimensions of the Short Form General Health Survey (SF-36) adjusted for baseline scores, lifestyle and behavioural factors; health care utilisation at Survey 2; and rate of deaths (older cohort only). Cross-sectional analyses showed clear socioeconomic differentials in well-being for both cohorts. Differential changes in health across tertiles of socioeconomic status (SES) were more evident in the mid-age cohort than in the older cohort. For the mid-aged women in the low SES tertile, declines in physical functioning (adjusted mean change of -2.4, standard error (SE) 1.1) and general health perceptions (-1.5, SE 1.1) were larger than the high SES group (physical functioning -0.8 SE 1.1, general health perceptions -0.8 SE 1.2). In the older cohort, changes in SF-36 scores over time were similar for all SES groups but women in the high SES group had lower death rates than women in the low SES group (relative risk: 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.98). Findings suggest that SES differentials in physical health seem to widen during women's mid-adult years but narrow in older age. Nevertheless, SES remains an important predictor of health, health service use and mortality in older Australian women. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weight gained in two years by a population of mid-aged women: how much is too much?

Objective: To establish the prevalence of weight change in mid-aged women over a 2-year period, and to assess the relationship between weight change and physical and mental well-being (SF36) in order to begin debate about the need for quantified standards of weight gain. Design: Prospective study of weight change and well-being over a 2-year period among mid-aged women participating in a large national survey. Subjects: Seven thousand two hundred and seventy women without surgical menopause aged between 45 and 50 years (termed mid-aged), enrolled in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Measurements: Weight change (self-reported weight at two time points) and physical and mental well-being (SF-36) explored using linear regression, while adjusting for potential confounders. Results: Only half the women maintained their weight within 2.25 kg, and one-third gained more than this amount in a 2-year period. While weight gain (>= 2.25 kg) was negatively associated with physical well-being, both weight loss and weight gain were associated with poorer mental well-being. Conclusion: This is the first prospective study using a large, population-based cohort to demonstrate that small changes in weight are associated with changes in well-being in mid-aged Australian women. It provides further evidence of the need for public health messages to specify the actual amount that constitutes weight gain, but further research is needed to establish these standards for the entire population.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Falls prevention in rural general practice: what stands the test of time and where to from here?

Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992-96 'Stay on Your Feet'(SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component. Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001. Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/ 209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention- related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all chi(2)>0.05). Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

Nifty after fifty: evaluation of a physical activity directory for older people

Objective: To develop a physical activity directory (PAD) for Brisbane people over the age of 50 years for distribution by two methods (given or requested), and to determine its effectiveness in raising awareness and encouraging older people to participate in local physical activity options. Methods: Baseline demographic data and stage of change was collected from 224 participants who received the directory. Participants were interviewed by telephone six weeks later to determine their use of the directory on a number of dimensions. Results: Most participants interviewed at follow-up remembered reading the directory. Participants who requested the directory were significantly more likely than those who were given it to: be contemplators, read the directory, plan to ring a number, plan to attend a class, and to share the directory with others. Participants who were contemplators were significantly more likely to have participated in physical activity of their own and rang a number from the directory. The directory increased over half the participants' awareness of local physical activity options, yet only 7% reported ringing a number and 15% reported doing their own physical activity. Conclusions: The directory was more effective in raising awareness about physical activity options than encouraging people to participate in physical activity, and participants with short-term plans to be more active were more likely to have used the directory. Implications: The directory, even when linked with other services, raises awareness about physical activity options, but has minimal short-term influence on participation.

Changes in cigarette smoking among adults in 35 populations in the mid-1980s

Objective-To examine changes in the prevalence of cigarette smoking in 35 study populations of the World Health Organisation's MONICA Project. Design-Data from two independent, community-based surveys conducted, on average, five years apart. Setting-Geographically defined populations in 21 countries mainly in eastern and western Europe. Subjects-Randomly selected men and women aged 25-64 years. Numbers of participants in each study population ranged from 586 to 2817 in each survey. Main outcome measures-Changes in proportions of current smokers, ex-smokers, and never-smokers by age and sex using data collected by standardised methods. Results-Among men, smoking prevalence decreased in most populations, by three to four percentage points over five years. In Beijing, however, it increased in all age groups-overall by 11 percentage points. Among women there were increases in smoking in about half the populations. The increases were mainly in the age group 35-54 years and often in those populations where smoking prevalence among women has been relatively low. Conclusions-Smoking initiation by middle-aged women in parts of southern and eastern Europe and among men of all ages in Beijing is a matter of concern. The various public health measures that have helped to reduce smoking among men in developed countries should be vigorously extended to these other groups now at growing risk of smoking-related disease.

Women drivers' behaviour, socio-demographic characteristics and accidents

The purpose of this study was to examine factors which affect driving behaviour and accident rates in women in Australia. Two groups of women (aged 18-23 and 45-50 years) participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, completed a mailed questionnaire on driver behaviour and road accidents. Self reported accident rates in the last 3 years were 1.87 per 100 000 km for the young drivers (n = 1199) and 0.59 per 100 000 km for the mid-age drivers (n = 1564); most accidents involved damage only, not injury. Mean scores for lapses obtained using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, were similar in the two age groups and similar to those found in other studies. In contrast, scores for errors and violations for the young women were higher than for the mid-age group and previous reports using the same instruments. Riskier driving behaviour among young women was associated with stress and habitual alcohol consumption. In the mid-age group, poorer driver behaviour scores were related to higher levels of education, feeling rushed, higher habitual alcohol consumption and lower life satisfaction scores. Accident rates in both groups were significantly related to lapses. Women born in non-English speaking countries had significantly higher risk of accidents compared to Australian-born women: relative risk = 3.40, 95% confidence interval (1.93, 5.98) for the young drivers; relative risk = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (1.11, 2.83) for mid-age drivers. These findings support the need for road safety campaigns targeted at young women to reduce dangerous driving practices, such as speeding,'tail gating' and overtaking on the inside. There is also a need for further research to understand how lifestyle characteristics are associated with higher risk of accidents and to explore factors which might account for the higher risk for women drivers who were born overseas. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overseas visitors admitted to Queensland hospitals for water-related injuries

Objective: To determine the number of overseas visitors admitted to Queensland hospitals for water-related injuries over three years, the causes of their injuries, the resulting conditions treated, and the type of hospitals to which they were admitted. Design: Retrospective analysis of admissions of overseas visitors to Queensland hospitals over the three financial years 1995/96, 1996/97 and 1997/98. Patients: 296 overseas visitors admitted for water-related injuries, identified from hospital records by their usual place of residence. Main outcome measures: Number of admissions, causes of injuries, conditions treated. and bed days occupied by these patients at different types of hospitals (metropolitan, regional and rural public hospitals, and private hospitals). Results: The 296 overseas visitors accounted for a total of 596 separate admissions, many of these the result of patients with decompression illness being admitted several times to a regional hospital hyperbaric chamber for treatment as day patients. The largest number of injuries involved the use of diving equipment. The main conditions treated were decompression illness (54.7%), fractures and dislocations (15.5%), and drowning and non-fatal submersion (14.9%). Overall, overseas visitors admitted to hospital following a water-related incident occupied 1215 bed days; 90% of these admissions were to regional hospitals. Conclusions: The main reason for admission of overseas visitors is for decompression illness, suggesting that the prevention of injuries among scuba divers requires further coordinated efforts by health and tourism authorities.

Youth suicide trends in Australian metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, 1988-1997

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine trends in suicide among 15-34-year-olds living in Australian metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas between 1988 and 1997. Method: Suicide and population data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We calculated overall and method-specific suicide rates for 15-24 and 25-34-year-old males and females separately, according to area of residence defined as non-metropolitan (less than or equal to 20 000 people) or metropolitan. Results: Between 1988 and 1997 suicide rates in 15-24-year-old non-metropolitan males were consistently 50% higher than metropolitan 15-24-year-olds. In 1995-1997, for example, the rates were: 38.2 versus 25.1 per 100 000 respectively (p < 0.0001). The reverse pattern was seen in 25-34-year-old females with higher rates in metropolitan areas (7.5 per 100 000) compared with non-metropolitan areas (6.1 per 100 000, p = 0.21) in 1995-1997. There were no significant differences according to area of residence in 25-34-year-old males or 15-24-year-old females. Over the years studied we found no clear evidence that suicide rates increased to a greater extent in rural than urban areas. Rates of hanging suicide have approximately doubled in both sexes and age groups in both settings over this time. Despite an approximate halving in firearm suicide, rates remain 3-fold higher among non-metropolitan residents. Conclusion: Non-metropolitan males aged 15-24 years have disproportionately higher rates of suicide than their metropolitan counterparts. Reasons for this require further investigation. Hanging is now the most favoured method of non-metropolitan suicide replacing firearms from 10 years ago. Although legislation may reduce method-specific suicide the potential for method-substitution means that overall rates may not fall. More comprehensive interventions are therefore required.

Iron deficiency, general health and fatigue: Results from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Associations between self-reported 'low iron', general health and well-being, vitality and tiredness in women, were examined using physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summary and vitality (VT) scores from the MOS short-form survey (SF-36). 14,762 young (18-23 years) and 14,072 mid-age (45-50 years) women, randomly selected from the national health insurance commission (Medicare) database, completed a baseline mailed self-report questionnaire and 12,328 mid-age women completed a follow-up questionnaire 2 years later. Young and mid-age women who reported (ever) having had 'low iron' reported significantly lower mean PCS, MCS and VT scores, and greater prevalence of 'constant tiredness' at baseline than women with no history of iron deficiency [Differences: young PCS = -2.2, MCS = -4.8, VT = -8.7; constant tiredness: 67% vs. 45%; mid-age PCS = -1.4, MCS = -3.1, VT = -5.9; constant tiredness: 63% vs. 48%]. After adjusting for number of children, chronic conditions, symptoms and socio-demographic variables, mean PCS, MCS and VT scores for mid-age women at follow-up were significantly lower for women who reported recent iron deficiency (in the last 2 years) than for women who reported past iron deficiency or no history of iron deficiency [Means: PCS - recent = 46.6, past = 47.8, never = 47.7; MCS - recent = 45.4, past = 46.9, never = 47.4; VT - recent = 54.8, past = 57.6, never = 58.6]. The adjusted mean change in PCS, MCS and VT scores between baseline and follow-up were also significantly lower among mid-age women who reported iron deficiency only in the last 2 years (i.e. recent iron deficiency) [Mean change: PCS = -3.2; MCS = -2.1; VT = -4.2]. The results suggest that iron deficiency is associated with decreased general health and well-being and increased fatigue.