Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative influence of forest management and habitat structural factors on the abundances of hollow-nesting bird species in subtropical Australian eucalypt forest

We examined the impact of single-tree selective logging and fuel reduction bums on the abundance of hollow-nesting bird species at a regional scale in southeastern Queensland, Australia. Data were collected on species abundance and habitat structure of dry sclerophyll production forest at 36 sites with known logging and fire histories. Sixteen bird species were recorded with most being resident, territorial, obligate hollow nesters that used hollows that were either small (18 cm diameter). Species densities were typically low, but combinations of two forest management and three habitat structural variables influenced the abundances of eight bird species in different and sometimes conflicting ways. The results suggest that habitat tree management for biodiversity in production forests cannot depend upon habitat structural characteristics alone. Management histories appear to have independent influence (on some bird species) that are distinguishable from their impacts on habitat structure per se. Rather than managing to maximize species abundances to maintain biodiversity, we may be better off managing to avoid extinctions of populations by identifying thresholds of acceptable fluctuations in populations of not only hollow-nesting birds but other forest dependent wildlife relative to scientifically valid forest management and habitat structural surrogates.

Supply chain management as beyond operational efficiency

The orthodoxy of supply chain management (SCM) emphasises competitive advantage through increased operational efficiency and market responsiveness from production and distribution processes into the hands of consumers. It anticipates that future competition will be between chains rather than between firms. While well established in other industry sectors, the SCM concept is newly developed in the Australian agri-food sector. Critical review of the concept has identified key issues of power among channel members, processes of chain initiation and innovation, and the inability of SCM to offer a viable business strategy for some firms. Building on those insights, this paper examines the supply chain concept for horticulture. Horticultural products are characterised by perishability, heterogeneity and lags in production response to market signals. Producers’ profits are vulnerable to quantity, timing of supply and product specification. Many supply chains in smaller industries are loose, fragmented, interwoven, unstable and unique! Firms operating within these environments need an astute understanding of the chains, the hierarchy of channel members and their relative position. Effective business strategies – for individual firms and supply chains - need to be developed and redeveloped to accommodate the dynamic nature of horticulture. Two case studies are discussed as contributions to this early stage of the theoretical development of supply chain management. The SCM concept also has implications for horticultural researchers, involving a wider range of industry stakeholders, technical problems and research skills. As for business management, the usefulness of the concept will depend on its capacity to increase responsiveness to customers’ preferences and customer value.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dry matter production and allocation in Eucalyptus cloeziana and Eucalyptus argophloia seedlings in response to soil water deficits

Effects of soil water availability on seedling growth, dry matter production and allocation were determined for Gympie ( humid coastal) and Hungry Hills ( dry inland) provenances of Eucalyptus cloeziana F. Muell. and for E. argophloia Blakely ( dry inland) species. Seven-month-old seedlings were subjected to well-watered (100% field capacity, FC), moderate (70% FC) and severe (50% FC) soil water regimes in a glasshouse environment for 14 wk. There were significant differences in seedling growth, biomass production and allocation patterns between species. E. argophloia produced twice as much biomass at 100% FC, and more than three times as much at 70% and 50% FC than did either E. cloeziana provenance. Although the humid provenance of E. cloeziana had a greater leaf area at 100% FC conditions than did the dry provenance, total biomass production did not differ significantly. Both E. cloeziana provenances were highly sensitive to water deficits. E. argophloia allocated 10% more biomass to roots than did E. cloeziana. Allometric analyses indicated that relative biomass allocation patterns were significantly affected by genotype but not by soil water availability. These results have implications for taxon selection for cultivation in humid and subhumid regions.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.