36 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model
Resumo:
As process management projects have increased in size due to globalised and company-wide initiatives, a corresponding growth in the size of process modeling projects can be observed. Despite advances in languages, tools and methodologies, several aspects of these projects have been largely ignored by the academic community. This paper makes a first contribution to a potential research agenda in this field by defining the characteristics of large-scale process modeling projects and proposing a framework of related issues. These issues are derived from a semi -structured interview and six focus groups conducted in Australia, Germany and the USA with enterprise and modeling software vendors and customers. The focus groups confirm the existence of unresolved problems in business process modeling projects. The outcomes provide a research agenda which directs researchers into further studies in global process management, process model decomposition and the overall governance of process modeling projects. It is expected that this research agenda will provide guidance to researchers and practitioners by focusing on areas of high theoretical and practical relevance.
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In this paper, we present a top down approach for integrated process modelling and distributed process execution. The integrated process model can be utilized for global monitoring and visualization and distributed process models for local execution. Our main focus in this paper is the presentation of the approach to support automatic generation and linking of distributed process models from an integrated process definition.
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The successful restructuring of Chinese industries is of immense importance not only for the continued development of China but also to the stability of the world economy. The transformation of the Chinese wool textile industry illustrates well the many problems and pressures currently facing most Chinese industries. The Chinese wool textile industry has undergone major upheaval and restructuring in its drive to modernize and take advantage of developments in world textile markets. Macro level ownership and administrative reforms are well advanced as is the uptake of new technology and equipment. However, the changing market and institutional environment also demands an increasing level of sophistication in mill management decisions including product selection, input procurement, product pricing, investment appraisal, cost analysis and proactive identification of new market and growth opportunities. This paper outlines a series of analyses that have been integrated into a decision-making model designed to assist mill managers with these decisions. Features of the model include a whole-of-mill approach, a design based on existing mill structures and information systems, and the capacity for the model to be tailored to individual mills. All of these features facilitate the adoption of the model by time and resource constrained managers seeking to maintain the viability of their enterprises in the face of extremely dynamic market conditions.
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One hundred university students completed tests of spelling production, vocabulary, reading comprehension, reading experience, and reading accuracy (ability to distinguish a previously read word from a similar distractor). Reading experience, as measured by an adaptation of the Author Recognition Test, and reading accuracy contributed to the prediction of spelling beyond the joint contribution of reading comprehension and vocabulary. The results are more consistent with a uni-process model of spelling based on the quality of word-specific orthographic learning, rather than with a dual-process account relying on both word-specific knowledge and rules.
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Current theoretical thinking about dual processes in recognition relies heavily on the measurement operations embodied within the process dissociation procedure. We critically evaluate the ability of this procedure to support this theoretical enterprise. We show that there are alternative processes that would produce a rough invariance in familiarity (a key prediction of the dual-processing approach) and that the process dissociation procedure does not have the power to differentiate between these alternative possibilities. We also show that attempts to relate parameters estimated by the process dissociation procedure to subjective reports (remember-know judgments) cannot differentiate between alternative dual-processing models and that there are problems with some of the historical evidence and with obtaining converging evidence. Our conclusion is that more specific theories incorporating ideas about representation and process are required.
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Public sector organizations traditionally have been associated with the internal process (bureaucratic) model of organizational culture. Public choice and management theory have suggested that public sector managers can learn from the experience of private sector management, and need to change from the Internal process model of organizational culture. Due to these Influences an managers, the current research proposes that managers' perceptions of Ideal organizational culture would no longer reflect the Internal process model. Public sector managers' perceptions of the current culture, as well as their perceptions of the Ideal culture, were measured. A mail-out survey was conducted In the Queensland (a state of Australia) public sector. Responses to a competing values culture Inventory were received from 222 managers. Results Indicated that a reliance on the Internal process model persists, while managers had a desire for cultural models other than the Internal process model, as hypothesized.
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The development of a new process model of cement grinding in two-stage mills is discussed. The new model has been used to simulate cement grinding and predicting mill performance in open and closed circuit configuration. The new model considered the two-compartment mill as perfectly mixed slices in series. The breakage rate function uses the back calculation technique to determine offline using drop weight and abrasion tests.
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In 3 experiments, the authors examined the role of memory for prior instances for making relative judgments in conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of aircraft either repeatedly conflict with each other or pass safely before being tested on new aircraft pairs, which varied in similarity to the training pairs. Performance was influenced by the similarity between aircraft pairs. Detection time was faster when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly conflicted. Detection time was slower, and participants missed conflicts, when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. The findings identify aircraft features that are used as inputs into the memory decision process and provide an indication of the processes involved in the use of memory for prior instances to make relative judgments.
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Networks exhibiting accelerating growth have total link numbers growing faster than linearly with network size and either reach a limit or exhibit graduated transitions from nonstationary-to-stationary statistics and from random to scale-free to regular statistics as the network size grows. However, if for any reason the network cannot tolerate such gross structural changes then accelerating networks are constrained to have sizes below some critical value. This is of interest as the regulatory gene networks of single-celled prokaryotes are characterized by an accelerating quadratic growth and are size constrained to be less than about 10,000 genes encoded in DNA sequence of less than about 10 megabases. This paper presents a probabilistic accelerating network model for prokaryotic gene regulation which closely matches observed statistics by employing two classes of network nodes (regulatory and non-regulatory) and directed links whose inbound heads are exponentially distributed over all nodes and whose outbound tails are preferentially attached to regulatory nodes and described by a scale-free distribution. This model explains the observed quadratic growth in regulator number with gene number and predicts an upper prokaryote size limit closely approximating the observed value. (c) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
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Semantic priming occurs when a subject is faster in recognising a target word when it is preceded by a related word compared to an unrelated word. The effect is attributed to automatic or controlled processing mechanisms elicited by short or long interstimulus intervals (ISIs) between primes and targets. We employed event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) responses associated with automatic semantic priming using an experimental design identical to that used in standard behavioural priming tasks. Prime-target semantic strength was manipulated by using lexical ambiguity primes (e.g., bank) and target words related to dominant or subordinate meaning of the ambiguity. Subjects made speeded lexical decisions (word/nonword) on dominant related, subordinate related, and unrelated word pairs presented randomly with a short ISI. The major finding was a pattern of reduced activity in middle temporal and inferior prefrontal regions for dominant versus unrelated and subordinate versus unrelated comparisons, respectively. These findings are consistent with both a dual process model of semantic priming and recent repetition priming data that suggest that reductions in BOLD responses represent neural priming associated with automatic semantic activation and implicate the left middle temporal cortex and inferior prefrontal cortex in more automatic aspects of semantic processing.
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This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.
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The study aimed to examine the factors influencing referral to rehabilitation following traumatic brain injury (TBI) by using social problems theory as a conceptual model to focus on practitioners and the process of decision-making in two Australian hospitals. The research design involved semi-structured interviews with 18 practitioners and observations of 10 team meetings, and was part of a larger study on factors influencing referral to rehabilitation in the same settings. Analysis revealed that referral decisions were influenced primarily by practitioners' selection and their interpretation of clinical and non-clinical patient factors. Further, practitioners generally considered patient factors concurrently during an ongoing process of decision-making, with the combinations and interactions of these factors forming the basis for interpretations of problems and referral justifications. Key patient factors considered in referral decisions included functional and tracheostomy status, time since injury, age, family, place of residence and Indigenous status. However, rate and extent of progress, recovery potential, safety and burden of care, potential for independence and capacity to cope were five interpretative themes, which emerged as the justifications for referral decisions. The subsequent negotiation of referral based on patient factors was in turn shaped by the involvement of practitioners. While multi-disciplinary processes of decision-making were the norm, allied health professionals occupied a central role in referral to rehabilitation, and involvement of medical, nursing and allied health practitioners varied. Finally, the organizational pressures and resource constraints, combined with practitioners' assimilation of the broader efficiency agenda were central factors shaping referral. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Network building and exchange of information by people within networks is crucial to the innovation process. Contrary to older models, in social networks the flow of information is noncontinuous and nonlinear. There are critical barriers to information flow that operate in a problematic manner. New models and new analytic tools are needed for these systems. This paper introduces the concept of virtual circuits and draws on recent concepts of network modelling and design to introduce a probabilistic switch theory that can be described using matrices. It can be used to model multistep information flow between people within organisational networks, to provide formal definitions of efficient and balanced networks and to describe distortion of information as it passes along human communication channels. The concept of multi-dimensional information space arises naturally from the use of matrices. The theory and the use of serial diagonal matrices have applications to organisational design and to the modelling of other systems. It is hypothesised that opinion leaders or creative individuals are more likely to emerge at information-rich nodes in networks. A mathematical definition of such nodes is developed and it does not invariably correspond with centrality as defined by early work on networks.
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The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.