Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm-quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricingerror and return-prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.

Predictive vaccinology: Optimisation of predictions using support vector machine classifiers

Promiscuous human leukocyte antigen (HLA) binding peptides are ideal targets for vaccine development. Existing computational models for prediction of promiscuous peptides used hidden Markov models and artificial neural networks as prediction algorithms. We report a system based on support vector machines that outperforms previously published methods. Preliminary testing showed that it can predict peptides binding to HLA-A2 and -A3 super-type molecules with excellent accuracy, even for molecules where no binding data are currently available.

Predictive regression equations and clinical uses of peripheral pulse timing characteristics in children

Studies have shown that increased arterial stiffening can be an indication of cardiovascular diseases like hypertension. In clinical practice, this can be detected by measuring the blood pressure (BP) using a sphygmomanometer but it cannot be used for prolonged monitoring. It has been established that pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a direct measure of arterial stiffening but its usefulness is hampered by the absence of non-invasive techniques to estimate it. Pulse transit time (PTT) is a simple and non-invasive method derived from PWV. However, limited knowledge of PTT in children is found in the present literature. The aims of this study are to identify independent variables that confound PTT measure and describe PTT regression equations for healthy children. Therefore, PTT reference values are formulated for future pathological studies. Fifty-five Caucasian children (39 male) aged 8.4 +/- 2.3 yr (range 5-12 yr) were recruited. Predictive equations for PTT were obtained by multiple regressions with age, vascular path length, BP indexes and heart rate. These derived equations were compared in their PWV equivalent against two previously reported equations and significant agreement was obtained (p < 0.05). Findings herein also suggested that PTT can be useful as a continuous surrogate BP monitor in children.

Factors predictive of intravenous fluid administration errors in Australian surgical care wards

Background: Intravenous (IV) fluid administration is an integral component of clinical care. Errors in administration can cause detrimental patient outcomes and increase healthcare costs, although little is known about medication administration errors associated with continuous IV infusions. Objectives: ( 1) To ascertain the prevalence of medication administration errors for continuous IV infusions and identify the variables that caused them. ( 2) To quantify the probability of errors by fitting a logistic regression model to the data. Methods: A prospective study was conducted on three surgical wards at a teaching hospital in Australia. All study participants received continuous infusions of IV fluids. Parenteral nutrition and non-electrolyte containing intermittent drug infusions ( such as antibiotics) were excluded. Medication administration errors and contributing variables were documented using a direct observational approach. Results: Six hundred and eighty seven observations were made, with 124 (18.0%) having at least one medication administration error. The most common error observed was wrong administration rate. The median deviation from the prescribed rate was 247 ml/h (interquartile range 275 to + 33.8 ml/ h). Errors were more likely to occur if an IV infusion control device was not used and as the duration of the infusion increased. Conclusions: Administration errors involving continuous IV infusions occur frequently. They could be reduced by more common use of IV infusion control devices and regular checking of administration rates.

Predictive genetic test decisions for Huntington's disease: Elucidating the test/no-test dichotomy

Predictive genetic testing for serious, mature-onset genetic illness represents a unique context in health decision making. This article presents findings from an exploratory qualitative Australian-based study into the decision making of individuals at risk for Huntington's disease (HD) with regard to predictive genetic testing. Sixteen in-depth interviews were conducted with a range of at-risk individuals. Data analysis revealed four discrete decision-making positions rather than a 'to test' or not to test' dichotomy. A conceptual dimension of (non-)openness and (non-)engagement characterized the various decisions. Processes of decision making and a concept of 'test readiness' were identified. Findings from this research, while not generalizable, are discussed in relation to theoretical frameworks and stage models of health decision making, as well as possible clinical implications.

Specific morphological features predictive for the basal phenotype in grade 3 invasive ductal carcinoma of breast

Aims: Cytokeratin (CK) 14, a myoepithelial marker, is also expressed in a proportion of breast carcinomas. There is evidence that these tumours show a differing metastatic pattern and clinical outcome from other invasive ductal carcinomas (IDCs) and may need different management. Currently, they are not identified in routine practice and no morphological guidelines exist to aid their identification. The aim of this study was to analyse the histological features of CK14+ IDC. Methods and results: A detailed histological review of 453 grade 3 IDCs revealed 88 (19.4%) that expressed CK14. Assessment was made independently by two pathologists using a standardized 'tick-box' proforma covering grade, architectural and cytological features. The results were analysed using logistic regression to identify features that predicted for basal phenotype. Concordance between the two pathologists was fair to good for most parameters (kappa 0.4-0.6). On multiple logistic regression, the basal phenotype was highly significantly associated with the presence of a central scar (P = 0.005), tumour necrosis (P < 0.0001), presence of spindle cells (P = 0.006) or squamous metaplasia (P < 0.0001), high total mitotic count (> 40 per 10 high-power field) (P = 0.0002) and high nuclear-cytoplasmic ratio (P = 0.0002). Conclusions: Specific morphological features are strongly associated with basal-like breast carcinoma. These could be used in routine diagnostic practice to identify this important subset of tumours.

Physical and psychological factors maintain long-term predictive capacity post-whiplash injury

Higher initial levels of pain and disability, older age, cold hyperalgesia, impaired sympathetic vasoconstriction and moderate post-traumatic stress symptoms have been shown to be associated with poor outcome 6 months following whiplash injury. This study prospectively investigated the predictive capacity of these variables at a long-term follow-up. Sixty-five of an initial cohort of 76 acutely injured whiplash participants were followed to 2-3 years post-accident. Motor function (ROM; kinaesthetic sense; activity of the superficial neck flexors (EMG) during cranio-cervical flexion), quantitative sensory testing (pressure, thermal pain thresholds and brachial plexus provocation test), sympathetic vasoconstrictor responses and psychological distress (GHQ-28, TSK and IES) were measured. The outcome measure was Neck Disability Index (NDI) scores. Participants with ongoing moderate/severe symptoms at 2-3 years continued to manifest decreased ROM, increased EMG during cranio-cervical flexion, sensory hypersensitivity and elevated levels of psychological distress when compared to recovered participants and those with milder symptoms. The latter two groups showed only persistent deficits in cervical muscle recruitment patterns. Higher initial NDI scores (OR 1.00-1.1), older age (OR 1.00-1.13), cold hyperalgesia (OR 1.1-1.13) and post-traumatic stress symptoms (OR 1.03-1.2) remained significant predictors of poor outcome at long-term follow-up (r(2) = 0.56). The robustness of these physical and psychological factors suggests that their assessment in the acute stage following whiplash injury will be important. (c) 2006 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive validity of three ActiGraph energy expenditure equations for children

Purpose: This Study evaluated the predictive validity of three previously published ActiGraph energy expenditure (EE) prediction equations developed for children and adolescents. Methods: A total of 45 healthy children and adolescents (mean age: 13.7 +/- 2.6 yr) completed four 5-min activity trials (normal walking. brisk walking, easy running, and fast running) in ail indoor exercise facility. During each trial, participants were all ActiGraph accelerometer oil the right hip. EE was monitored breath by breath using the Cosmed K4b(2) portable indirect calorimetry system. Differences and associations between measured and predicted EE were assessed using dependent t-tests and Pearson correlations, respectively. Classification accuracy was assessed using percent agreement, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Results: None of the equations accurately predicted mean energy expenditure during each of the four activity trials. Each equation, however, accurately predicted mean EE in at least one activity trial. The Puyau equation accurately predicted EE during slow walking. The Trost equation accurately predicted EE during slow running. The Freedson equation accurately predicted EE during fast running. None of the three equations accurately predicted EE during brisk walking. The equations exhibited fair to excellent classification accuracy with respect to activity intensity. with the Trost equation exhibiting the highest classification accuracy and the Puyau equation exhibiting the lowest. Conclusions: These data suggest that the three accelerometer prediction equations do not accurately predict EE on a minute-by-minute basis in children and adolescents during overground walking and running. The equations maybe, however, for estimating participation in moderate and vigorous activity.

Relative predictive value of intraventricular dysynchrony in determining long-term outcome in patients with known or suspected coronary disease

Improvement of intra-ventricular dysynchrony (IVD) in pts undergoing bi-ventricular pacing is associated with clinical improvementbut little isknownabout the relationship between IVD and prognosis.We sought whether IVD influences long-term outcome in pts with known or suspected coronary disease (CAD). Tissue Doppler imaging was performed in 184 pts (aged 61±10 years, 67% male) prior to dobutamine echo. From velocity curves the interval between QRS onset and max systolic velocity (Ts) was measured in basal septal, lateral, inferior and anterior segments. The maximal difference in Ts between segments (TsMax) was used as a measure of IVD. The standard deviation (TsSD) between all segments and the septal-lateral difference (TsSL) were also calculated. Pts were followed up for a median interval of 5 years and a Cox model used for survival analysis. The medianwall motion index (WMI) was 1.3 (IQR 1.0–1.8) at rest and 1.4 (IQR 1.3–1.9) at stress. The table shows IVD parameters. Forty-one deaths occurred during follow-up. Pts who died during follow-up, compared to survivors, showed greater IVD. WMI at rest (p = 0.03) and peak stress (p = 0.02), TsSD (p = 0.06), TsSL (p = 0.02) and TsMax (p = 0.05) but not QRS width were univariate predictors of mortality. TsSL was the only independent predictor of death (p = 0.01). Therefore, IVD is common in pts with known or suspected CAD. Pts with more IVD have reduced long-term survival, independent of WMI.