Power generation investment opportunities evaluation: A comparison between net present value and real options approach

To evaluate an investment project in the competitive electricity market, there are several key factors that affects the project's value: the present value that the project could bring to investor, the possible future course of actions that investor has and the project's management flexibility. The traditional net present value (NPV) criteria has the ability to capture the present value of the project's future cash flow, but it fails to assess the value brought by market uncertainty and management flexibility. By contrast with NPV, the real options approach (ROA) method has the advantage to combining the uncertainty and flexibility in evaluation process. In this paper, a framework for using ROA to evaluate the generation investment opportunity has been proposed. By given a detailed case study, the proposed framework is compared with NPV and showing a different results

Assessing the competitiveness of loss allocation methods in a deregulated electricity market

This paper critically assesses several loss allocation methods based on the type of competition each method promotes. This understanding assists in determining which method will promote more efficient network operations when implemented in deregulated electricity industries. The methods addressed in this paper include the pro rata [1], proportional sharing [2], loss formula [3], incremental [4], and a new method proposed by the authors of this paper, which is loop-based [5]. These methods are tested on a modified Nordic 32-bus network, where different case studies of different operating points are investigated. The varying results obtained for each allocation method at different operating points make it possible to distinguish methods that promote unhealthy competition from those that encourage better system operation.

The potential of virulent Wolbachia to modulate disease transmission by insects

A virulent strain of Wolbachia has recently been identified in Drosophila that drastically reduces adult lifespan. It has been proposed that this phenotype might be introduced into insect disease vector populations to reduce pathogen transmission. Here we model the requirements for spread of such an agent and the associated reduction in disease transmission. First, a simulation of mosquito population age structure was used to describe the age distribution of mosquitoes transmitting dengue virus. Second, given varying levels of cytoplasmic incompatibility and fecundity effect, the maximum possible longevity reduction that would allow Wolbachia to invade was obtained. Finally, the two models were combined to estimate the reduction in disease transmission according to different introduction frequencies. With strong CI and limited effect of fecundity, an introduction of Wolbachia with an initial frequency of 0.4 could result in a 60–80% reduction of transmitting mosquitoes. Greater reductions are possible at higher initial release rates.

Maternal transmission efficiency of Wolbachia superinfections in Aedes albopictus populations in Thailand

We examined the transmission efficiency of 2 strains of Wolbachia bacteria that cause cytoplasmic incompatibility in field populations of Aedes albopictus by polymerase chain reaction assay. We found mainland and island populations throughout Thailand to be superinfected with group A and B bacteria. Of 320 Wolbachia-positive adult mosquitoes, 97.5% were infected with both groups. Single infected individuals of each Wolbachia group were encountered in nearly equal numbers. We screened 550 offspring from 80 field-collected mothers and found the transmission efficiency of group A Wolbachia to be 96.7% and that of group B Wolbachia to be 99.6%. Mothers that did not transmit both Wolbachia infections to all of their offspring were significantly larger in size than those with perfect transmission fidelity. We discuss our findings in relation to the prospects of the use of Wolbachia as a gene-driving mechanism.

Evolution of Wolbachia pipientis transmission dynamics in insects

Wolbachia pipientis is an intracellular bacterial parasite of arthropods that enhances its transmission by manipulating host reproduction, most commonly by inducing cytoplasmic incompatibility. The discovery of isolates with modified cytoplasmic incompatibility phenotypes and others with novel virulence properties is an indication of the potential breadth of evolutionary strategies employed by Wolbachia.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.