Population-based continuous optimization, probabilistic modelling and mean shift

Evolutionary algorithms perform optimization using a population of sample solution points. An interesting development has been to view population-based optimization as the process of evolving an explicit, probabilistic model of the search space. This paper investigates a formal basis for continuous, population-based optimization in terms of a stochastic gradient descent on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model probability density and the objective function, represented as an unknown density of assumed form. This leads to an update rule that is related and compared with previous theoretical work, a continuous version of the population-based incremental learning algorithm, and the generalized mean shift clustering framework. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the dynamics of the new algorithm on a set of simple test problems.

Hearing sensitivity and bone mineral density in older adults: the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study

Bone mineral density (BMD) may be associated with hearing loss in older adults. Demineralization of the cochlear capsule has been associated with hearing loss in those with Paget's disease of the bone and otosclerosis. Osteoporosis may also result in cochlear capsule demineralization. We hypothesized that lower hip BMD and lower heel ultrasound measurements would be associated with hearing loss in a population-based sample of 2,089 older black and white men and women. Bone parameters and hearing function were measured at the fourth clinical follow-up visit. Audiometric threshold testing was used to measure air- and bone-conduction hearing sensitivity. BMD of the hip and its subregions was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Calcaneal bone measurements [broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), speed of sound (SOS) and the quantitative ultrasound index (QUI)] were obtained using heel ultrasound. After adjusting for known hearing loss risk factors, no association was found between hearing and any of the bone measurements in whites and black women. In black men, however, lower hip BMD was associated with higher odds of hearing loss; for each standard deviation decrease in total hip BMD, the odds of hearing loss were 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.08, 1.83), 1.39 (95% CI 1.07, 1.82) for femoral neck BMD and 1.65 (95% CI 1.26, 2.16) for trochanter BMD. Conductive hearing loss was associated with lower heel ultrasound measurements, though only among white men. The results of this study are mixed and inconclusive. Lower BMD of the hip and its subregions was associated with hearing loss among black men, but not among whites or black women. Lower measurements on heel ultrasound were associated with conductive hearing loss, though only among white men. These results suggest that axial and appendicular bone parameters may be modestly associated with hearing loss in older men, but not in women.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Kinetic study of the thermal degradation of high density polyethylene

The thermal degradation of high density polyethylene has been modelled by the random breakage of polymer bonds, using a set of population balance equations. A model was proposed in which the population balances were lumped into representative sizes so that the experimentally determined molecular weight distribution of the original polymer could be used as the initial condition. This model was then compared to two different cases of the unlumped population balance which assumed unimolecular initial distributions of 100 and 500 monomer units, respectively. The model that utilised the experimentally determined molecular weight distribution was found to best describe the experimental data. The model fits suggested a second mechanism in addition to random breakage at slow reaction rates. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.