A Score Test for Zero-Inflation in Correlated Count Data

To account for the preponderance of zero counts and simultaneous correlation of observations, a class of zero-inflated Poisson mixed regression models is applicable for accommodating the within-cluster dependence. In this paper, a score test for zero-inflation is developed for assessing correlated count data with excess zeros. The sampling distribution and the power of the test statistic are evaluated by simulation studies. The results show that the test statistic performs satisfactorily under a wide range of conditions. The test procedure is further illustrated using a data set on recurrent urinary tract infections. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends for in situ and invasive melanoma in Queensland, Australia, 1982-2002

Objectives Queensland, the north-eastern state of Australia, has the highest incidence of melanoma in the world. Control measures started earlier here than probably anywhere else in the world; early detection programmes started in the 1960s and primary prevention in the 1980s. Data from the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry therefore provide an internationally unique data source with which to assess trends for in situ and invasive melanomas and to consider the implications for early detection and primary prevention. Methods We used Poisson regression to estimate the annual percentage change in rates across 21 years of incidence data for in situ and invasive lesions, stratified by age and sex. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess whether there had been a statistically significant change in the trends. Results In situ melanomas increased by 10.4% (95% CI: 10.1%, 11.1%) per year among males and 8.4% (7.9%, 8.9%) per year among females. The incidence of invasive lesions also increased, but not as quickly; males 2.6% (2.4%, 2.8%), females 1.2% (0.9%, 1.5%). Valid data on thickness was only available for 1991 to 2002 and for this period thin-invasive lesions were increasing faster than thick-invasive lesions (for example, among males: thin 3.8%, thick 2.0%). We found some suggestive evidence of lower proportionate increase for the most recent years for both in-situ and invasive lesions, but this did not achieve statistical significance. Among people younger than 35 years, the incidence of invasive melanoma was stable and there was a suggestion of a birth cohort effect from about 1958. Mortality rates were stable across all ages, and there was a suggestion of decreasing rates among young women, although this did not achieve statistical significance. Conclusion Age-standardised incidence is continuing to increase and this, in combination with a shift to proportionately more in situ lesions, suggests that the stabilisation of mortality rates is due, in large part, to earlier detection. For primary prevention, after a substantial period of sustained effort in Queensland, there is some suggestive, but not definitive, evidence that progress is being made. Incidence rates are stabilising in those younger than 35 years and the proportionate increase for both in situ and invasive lesions appears to be lower for the most recent period compared with previous periods. However, even taking the most favourable view of these trends, primary prevention is unlikely to lead to decreases in the overall incidence rate of melanoma for at least another 20 years. Consequently, the challenge for primary prevention programmes will be to maintain momentum over the long term. If this can be achieved, the eventual public-health benefits are likely to be substantial.

Habitat use by Darling Downs population of the grassland earless dragon: implications for conservation.

A population of the grassland earless dragon (Tympanocryptis pinguicolla) on the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia, had been considered extinct until its recent rediscovery. We determined factors affecting grassland earless dragon abundance and prey availability in 3 habitats. Mean dragon body condition and prey numbers were higher in sorghum than grasslands and grass verges. Poisson regression analyses indicated that the dragon numbers were 10 times higher in sorghum, and that this may result from differences in prey numbers as well as other habitat conditions. Tracking data indicated selection of open versus closed microhabitat. Sorghum planted in rows provided alternating open and closed microhabitats for optimal thermoregulation conditions. Grasslands and grass verges were more uniformly shaded. Of individuals we tracked in the sorghum stubble, 85.7% used litter as overnight refuges. Litter was abundant in sorghum and sparse in grass habitats. The practices of minimum tillage and resting stubble strips possibly mitigate agricultural impacts on dragons and provide continuous access to suitable habitat. Changes in agricultural practices that affect the habitat suitability will potentially have detrimental impacts on the population. Our data suggest that conservation efforts be focused on maintaining suitability of habitats in crop fields. We recommend monitoring dragon abundance at control and trial sites of any new agricultural practices; this will provide opportunity to modify or stop undesirable practices before adoption by farmers. Conservation agencies may use our data as a baseline for monitoring long-term viability of the population.

Predicting sprint running times from isokinetic and squat lift tests: A regression analysis

This study examined the relationship between isokinetic hip extensor/hip flexor strength, 1-RM squat strength, and sprint running performance for both a sprint-trained and non-sprint-trained group. Eleven male sprinters and 8 male controls volunteered for the study. On the same day subjects ran 20-m sprints from both a stationary start and with a 50-m acceleration distance, completed isokinetic hip extension/flexion exercises at 1.05, 4.74, and 8.42 rad.s(-1), and had their squat strength estimated. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that equations for predicting both 20-m maximum velocity nm time and 20-m acceleration time may be calculated with an error of less than 0.05 sec using only isokinetic and squat strength data. However, a single regression equation for predicting both 20-m acceleration and maximum velocity run times from isokinetic or squat tests was not found. The regression analysis indicated that hip flexor strength at all test velocities was a better predictor of sprint running performance than hip extensor strength.

Likelihood-based estimation of the regression model with scrambled responses

A significant problem in the collection of responses to potentially sensitive questions, such as relating to illegal, immoral or embarrassing activities, is non-sampling error due to refusal to respond or false responses. Eichhorn & Hayre (1983) suggested the use of scrambled responses to reduce this form of bias. This paper considers a linear regression model in which the dependent variable is unobserved but for which the sum or product with a scrambling random variable of known distribution, is known. The performance of two likelihood-based estimators is investigated, namely of a Bayesian estimator achieved through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme, and a classical maximum-likelihood estimator. These two estimators and an estimator suggested by Singh, Joarder & King (1996) are compared. Monte Carlo results show that the Bayesian estimator outperforms the classical estimators in almost all cases, and the relative performance of the Bayesian estimator improves as the responses become more scrambled.

Proximal arterial vasoconstriction precedes regression of the hyaloid vasculature

Purpose: To determine whether constriction of proximal arterial vessels precedes involution of the distal hyaloid vasculature in the mouse, under normal conditions, and whether this vasoconstriction is less pronounced when the distal hyaloid network persists, as it does in oxygen-induced retinopathy (OIR). Methods: Photomicrographs of the vasa hyaloidea propria were analysed from pre-term pups (1-2 days prior to birth), and on Days 1-11 post-birth. The OIR model involved exposing pups to similar to 90% O-2 from D1-5, followed by return to ambient air. At sampling times pups were anaesthetised and perfused with india ink. Retinal flatmounts were also incubated with FITC-lectin (BS-1, G. simplicifolia,); this labels all vessels, allowing identification of vessels not patent to the perfusate. Results: Mean diameter of proximal hyaloid vessels in preterm pups was 25.44 +/- 1.98 mum; +/-1 SEM). Within 3-12 hrs of birth, significant vasoconstriction was evident (diameter:12.45 +/- 0.88 mum), and normal hyaloid regression subsequently occurred. Similar vasoconstriction occurred in the O-2-treated group, but this was reversed upon return to room air, with significant dilation of proximal vessels by D7 (diameter: 31.75 +/- 11.99 mum) and distal hyaloid vessels subsequently became enlarged and tortuous. Conclusions: Under normal conditions, vasoconstriction of proximal hyaloid vessels occurs at birth, preceding attenuation of distal hyaloid vessels. Vasoconstriction also occurs in O-2-treated pups during treatment, but upon return to room air, the remaining hyaloid vessels dilate proximally, and the distal vessels become dilated and tortuous. These observations support the contention that regression of the hyaloid network is dependent, in the first instance, on proximal arterial vasoconstriction.

Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.