Sequential asymmetric auctions with endogenous participation

In this paper we suggest a model of sequential auctions with endogenous participation where each bidder conjectures about the number of participants at each round. Then, after learning his value, each bidder decides whether or not to participate in the auction. In the calculation of his expected value, each bidder uses his conjectures about the number of participants for each possible subgroup. In equilibrium, the conjectured probability is compatible with the probability of staying in the auction. In our model, players face participation costs, bidders may buy as many objects as they wish and they are allowed to drop out at any round. Bidders can drop out at any time, but they cannot come back to the auction. In particular we can determine the number of participants and expected prices in equilibrium. We show that for any bidding strategy, there exists such a probability of staying in the auction. For the case of stochastically independent objects, we show that in equilibrium every bidder who decides to continue submits a bid that is equal to his value at each round. When objects are stochastically identical, we are able to show that expected prices are decreasing.

Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Structure-hepatic disposition relationships for cationic drugs in isolated perfused rat livers: Transmembrane exchange and cytoplasmic binding process

This work studied the structure-hepatic disposition relationships for cationic drugs of varying lipophilicity using a single-pass, in situ rat liver preparation. The lipophilicity among the cationic drugs studied in this work is in the following order: diltiazem. propranolol. labetalol. prazosin. antipyrine. atenolol. Parameters characterizing the hepatic distribution and elimination kinetics of the drugs were estimated using the multiple indicator dilution method. The kinetic model used to describe drug transport (the two-phase stochastic model) integrated cytoplasmic binding kinetics and belongs to the class of barrier-limited and space-distributed liver models. Hepatic extraction ratio (E) (0.30-0.92) increased with lipophilicity. The intracellular binding rate constant (k(on)) and the equilibrium amount ratios characterizing the slowly and rapidly equilibrating binding sites (K-S and K-R) increase with the lipophilicity of drug (k(on) : 0.05-0.35 s(-1); K-S : 0.61-16.67; K-R : 0.36-0.95), whereas the intracellular unbinding rate constant (k(off)) decreases with the lipophilicity of drug (0.081-0.021 s(-1)). The partition ratio of influx (k(in)) and efflux rate constant (k(out)), k(in)/k(out), increases with increasing pK(a) value of the drug [from 1.72 for antipyrine (pK(a) = 1.45) to 9.76 for propranolol (pK(a) = 9.45)], the differences in k(in/kout) for the different drugs mainly arising from ion trapping in the mitochondria and lysosomes. The value of intrinsic elimination clearance (CLint), permeation clearance (CLpT), and permeability-surface area product (PS) all increase with the lipophilicity of drug [CLint (ml . min(-1) . g(-1) of liver): 10.08-67.41; CLpT (ml . min(-1) . g(-1) of liver): 10.80-5.35; PS (ml . min(-1) . g(-1) of liver): 14.59-90.54]. It is concluded that cationic drug kinetics in the liver can be modeled using models that integrate the presence of cytoplasmic binding, a hepatocyte barrier, and a vascular transit density function.

Identification of an apolipoprotein(e) variant associated with type III hyperlipoproteinaemia in an indigenous Australian

As a result of testing for lipid and apolipoprotein(e) (apo E) phenotype status of an indigenous Australian community, an apo E variant associated with type III hyperlipoproteinaemia has been identified. Apo E phenotype was determined by analysis of VLDL by isoelectric focusing, and genotype on DNA amplified by polymerase chain reaction, using two different restriction enzyme isotyping assays. Phenotypes and genotypes were discordant in samples from two subjects and an abnormal-sized restriction fragment was also observed in their genotyping gel patterns. DNA sequencing studies revealed this was due to a single nucleotide deletion. 3817delC, at amino acid 136 on apo E. This resulted in a new reading frame and the premature termination of the apo E protein due to a stop codon (TGA) at nucleotide 4105. The variant apo E null allele showed a recessive mode of inheritance and, in combination with the E2 allele, resulted in the type III hyperlipoproteinaemic phenotype but when inherited with the E4 allele had no marked effect on plasma lipids.

Pharmacokinetic software for the health sciences - Choosing the right package for teaching purposes

Computer assisted learning has an important role in the teaching of pharmacokinetics to health sciences students because it transfers the emphasis from the purely mathematical domain to an 'experiential' domain in which graphical and symbolic representations of actions and their consequences form the major focus for learning. Basic pharmacokinetic concepts can be taught by experimenting with the interplay between dose and dosage interval with drug absorption (e.g. absorption rate, bioavailability), drug distribution (e.g. volume of distribution, protein binding) and drug elimination (e.g. clearance) on drug concentrations using library ('canned') pharmacokinetic models. Such 'what if' approaches are found in calculator-simulators such as PharmaCalc, Practical Pharmacokinetics and PK Solutions. Others such as SAAM II, ModelMaker, and Stella represent the 'systems dynamics' genre, which requires the user to conceptualise a problem and formulate the model on-screen using symbols, icons, and directional arrows. The choice of software should be determined by the aims of the subject/course, the experience and background of the students in pharmacokinetics, and institutional factors including price and networking capabilities of the package(s). Enhanced learning may result if the computer teaching of pharmacokinetics is supported by tutorials, especially where the techniques are applied to solving problems in which the link with healthcare practices is clearly established.

Delineation of sulphide ore-zones by borehole radar tomography at Hellyer Mine, Australia

Velocity and absorption tomograms are the two most common forms of presentation of radar tomographic data. However, mining personnel, geophysicists included, are often unfamiliar with radar velocity and absorption. In this paper, general formulae are introduced, relating velocity and attenuation coefficient to conductivity and dielectric constant. The formulae are valid for lossy media as well as high-resistivity materials. The transformation of velocity and absorption to conductivity and dielectric constant is illustrated via application of the formulae to radar tomograms from the Hellyer zinc-lead-silver mine, Tasmania, Australia. The resulting conductivity and dielectric constant tomograms constructed at Hellyer demonstrated the potential of radar tomography to delineate sulphide ore zones. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A dileucine motif targets E-cadherin to the basolateral cell surface in Madin-Darby canine kidney and LLC-PK1 epithelial cells

E-cadherin is a major adherens junction protein of epithelial cells, with a central role in cell-cell adhesion and cell polarity. Newly synthesized E-cadherin is targeted to the basolateral cell surface, We analyzed targeting information in the cytoplasmic tail of E-cadherin by utilizing chimeras of E-cadherin fused to the ectodo- main of the interleukin-2 alpha (IL-2 alpha) receptor expressed in Madin-Darby canine kidney and LLC-PK1 epithelial cells, Chimeras containing the full-length or membrane-proximal half of the E-cadherin cytoplasmic tail were correctly targeted to the basolateral domain. Sequence analysis of the membrane-proximal tail region revealed the presence of a highly conserved dileucine motif, which was analyzed as a putative targeting signal by mutagenesis. Elimination of this motif resulted in the loss of Tac/E-cadherin basolateral localization, pinpointing this dileucine signal as being both necessary and sufficient for basolateral targeting of E-cadherin, Truncation mutants unable to bind beta -catenin were correctly targeted, showing, contrary to current understanding, that beta -catenin is not required for basolateral trafficking. Our results also provide evidence that dileucine mediated targeting is maintained in UC-PK, cells despite the altered polarity of basolateral proteins with tyrosine-based signals in this cell line, These results provide the first direct insights into how E-cadherin is targeted to the basolateral membrane.

Familial Paget's disease of bone: Nonlinkage to the PDB1 and PDB2 loci on chromosomes 6p and 18q in a large pedigree

Paget's disease of bone is a common condition characterized by bone pain, deformity, pathological fracture, and an increased incidence of osteosarcoma. Genetic factors play a role in the pathogenesis of Paget's disease but the molecular basis remains largely unknown. Susceptibility loci for Paget's disease of bone have been mapped to chromosome 6p21.3 (PDB1) and 18q121.1-q22 (PDB2) in different pedigrees, We have identified a large pedigree of over 250 individuals with 49 informative individuals affected with Paget's disease of bone; 31 of whom are available for genotypic analysis. The disease is inherited as an autosomal dominant trait in the pedigree with high penetrance by the sixth decade. Linkage analysis has been performed with markers at PDB1; these data show significant exclusion of linkage with log,, of the odds ratio (LOD) scores < -2 in this region. Linkage analysis of microsatellite markers from the PDB2 region has excluded linkage with this region, with a 30 cM exclusion region (LOD score < -2.0) centered on D18S42, These data confirm the genetic heterogeneity of Paget's disease of bone. Our hypothesis is that a novel susceptibility gene relevant to the pathogenesis of Paget's disease of bone lies elsewhere in the genome in the affected members of this pedigree and will be identified using a microsatellite genomewide scan followed by positional cloning.

The first non-turnover voltammetric response from a molybdenum enzyme: direct electroscopy of dimethylsulfoxide reductase from Rhodobacter capsulatus

The first direct voltammetric response from a molybdenum enzyme under non-turnover conditions is reported. Cyclic voltammetry of dimethylsulfoxide reductase from Rhodobacter capsulatus reveals a reversible Mo-VI/V response at + 161 mV followed by a reversible Mo-V/IV response at -102 mV versus NHE at pH 8. The higher potential couple exhibits a pH dependence consistent with protonation upon reduction to the Mo-V state and we have determined the pK(a) for this semi-reduced species to be 9.0. The lower potential couple is pH independent within the range 5 < pH < 10. The optical spectrum of the Mo chromophore has been investigated with spectroelectrochemistry. At high potential, in its resting state, the enzyme exhibits a spectrum characteristic of the Mo-VI form. This changes significantly following bulk electrolysis (-400 mV versus NHE) at an optically transparent, indium-doped tin oxide working electrode, where a single visible electronic maximum at 632 nm is observed, which is comparable with spectra reported previously for the dithionite-reduced enzyme. This two-electron process is chemically reversible by reoxidizing the enzyme at the electrode in the absence of mediators or promoters. The activity of the enzyme has been established by observation of a catalytic current in the presence of DMSO at pH 8, where a sigmoidal (steady state) voltammogram is seen. Electronic supplementary material to this paper (Fig. S 1) can be obtained by using the Springer Link server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00775-002-0374-y.

Cationic drug pharmacokinetics in diseased livers determined by fibrosis index, hepatic protein content, microsomal activity, and nature of drug

The disposition kinetics of six cationic drugs in perfused diseased and normal rat livers were determined by multiple indicator dilution and related to the drug physicochemical properties and liver histopathology. A carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)induced acute hepatocellular injury model had a higher fibrosis index (FI), determined by computer-assisted image analysis, than did an alcohol-induced chronic hepatocellular injury model. The alcohol-treated group had the highest hepatic alpha(1)- acid glycoprotein, microsomal protein (MP), and cytochrome P450 (P450) concentrations. Various pharmacokinetic parameters could be related to the octanol-water partition coefficient (log P-app) of the drug as a surrogate for plasma membrane partition coefficient and affinity for MP or P450, the dependence being lower in the CCl4-treated group and higher in the alcohol-treated group relative to controls. Stepwise regression analysis showed that hepatic extraction ratio, permeability-surface area product, tissue-binding constant, intrinsic clearance, partition ratio of influx (k(in)) and efflux rate constant (k(out)), and k(in)/k(out) were related to physicochemical properties of drug (log P-app or pK(a)) and liver histopathology (FI, MP, or P450). In addition, hepatocyte organelle ion trapping of cationic drugs was evident in all groups. It is concluded that fibrosis-inducing hepatic disease effects on cationic drug disposition in the liver may be predicted from drug properties and liver histopathology.

Comparison of adsorption capacity of p-Cresol & p-Nitrophenol by activated carbon in single and double solute

Adsorption of p-Cresol and p-Nitrophenol by untreated activated carbon in single and multisolute solutions was carried out at 301 K and at controlled pH conditions. In acidic conditions, well below the pK(a) of both solutes, it was observed that the adsorbate solubility and the electron density of aromatic rings influenced the extent of adsorption by affecting the extent of London dispersion forces. The fitted parameters obtained from single-solute Langmuir equation show that Q(max) and the adsorption affinity of carbon for the compound with low pK(a) decrease more significantly. In higher solution pH conditions, on the other hand, it was found that electrostatic forces played a significant role on the extent of adsorption. The presence of another compound decreases Q(max) and the adsorption affinity of carbon for the principal compound. The effect of pH, on the carbon surface and on the solute molecules, must be considered. Adsorption of the solute at higher pH values was found to be dependent on the concentration of anionic form of the solute. The isotherm data were fitted to the Langmuir isotherm equation for both single and double solute solutions.

Adsorption of aromatic compounds by activated carbon: Effects of functional groups and molecular size

The adsorption of three aromatic compounds on to an untreated carbon was investigated. The solution pH was lowered in all experiments so that all the solutes were in their molecular forms. It was shown that the difference in the maximum adsorption of the solutes was mainly a result of the difference in the sizes of the molecules and their functional groups. Further-more, it was illustrated that the packing arrangement was most likely edge-to-face (sorbate-sorbent) with various tilt angles. On the other hand, the affinity and heterogeneity of the adsorption systems were apparently related to the pK(a) values of the solutes.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

A new method for analysing the equilibrium and time-dependent behaviour of Markovian models

Many large-scale stochastic systems, such as telecommunications networks, can be modelled using a continuous-time Markov chain. However, it is frequently the case that a satisfactory analysis of their time-dependent, or even equilibrium, behaviour is impossible. In this paper, we propose a new method of analyzing Markovian models, whereby the existing transition structure is replaced by a more amenable one. Using rates of transition given by the equilibrium expected rates of the corresponding transitions of the original chain, we are able to approximate its behaviour. We present two formulations of the idea of expected rates. The first provides a method for analysing time-dependent behaviour, while the second provides a highly accurate means of analysing equilibrium behaviour. We shall illustrate our approach with reference to a variety of models, giving particular attention to queueing and loss networks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of scores between stroke patients and significant others on the Reintegration to Normal Living (RNL) Index

Purpose: This study measured reliability between stroke patients' and significant others' scores on items on the Reintegration to Normal Living (RNL) Index and whether there were any scoring biases. Method The 11-item RNL Index was administered to 57 pairs of patients and significants six months after stroke rehabilitation. The index was scored using a 10-point visual analogue scale. Patient and significant other demographic information and data on patients' clinical, functional and cognitive status were collected. Reliability was measured using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and percent agreement. Results: Overall poor reliability was found for the RNL Index total score (ICC=.36, 95% CI. 07 to .59) and the daily functioning subscale (ICC=.24, 95% CI -.003 to .46) and moderate reliability was found for the perception of self subscale (ICC=.55, 95 % CI .28 to .73). There was a moderate bias for patients to rate themselves as achieving better reintegration than was indicated by significant others, although no demographic or clinical factors were associated with this bias. Exact match agreement was best for the subjective items and worse for items reflecting mobility around the community and participation in a work activity. Conclusions: Caution is needed when interpreting patient information reported by significant others on the RNL Index. The use of a shorter scale to rate the RNL Index requires investigation.