Measuring the global burden of disease and epidemiological transitions: 2002-2030

Any planning process for health development ought to be based on a thorough understanding of the health needs of the population. This should be sufficiently comprehensive to include the causes of premature death and of disability, as well as the major risk factors that underlie disease and injury. To be truly useful to inform health-policy debates, such an assessment is needed across a large number of diseases, injuries and risk factors, in order to guide prioritization. The results of the original Global Burden of Disease Study and, particularly, those of its 2000-2002 update provide a conceptual and methodological framework to quantify and compare the health of populations using a summary measure of both mortality and disability: the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY). Globally, it appears that about 5 6 million deaths occur each year, 10. 5 million (almost all in poor countries) in children. Of the child deaths, about one-fifth result from perinatal causes such as birth asphyxia and birth trauma, and only slightly less from lower respiratory infections. Annually, diarrhoeal diseases kill over 1.5 million children, and malaria, measles and HIV/AIDS each claim between 500,000 and 800,000 children. HIV/AIDS is the fourth leading cause of death world-wide (2.9 million deaths) and the leading cause in Africa. The top three causes of death globally are ischaemic heart disease (7.2 million deaths), stroke (5.5 million) and lower respiratory diseases (3.9 million). Chronic obstructive lung diseases (COPD) cause almost as many deaths as HIV/AIDS (2.7 million). The leading causes of DALY, on the other hand, include causes that are common at young ages [perinatal conditions (7. 1 % of global DALY), lower respiratory infections (6.7%), and diarrhoeal diseases (4.7%)] as well as depression (4.1%). Ischaemic heart disease and stroke rank sixth and seventh, retrospectively, as causes of global disease burden, followed by road traffic accidents, malaria and tuberculosis. Projections to 2030 indicate that, although these major vascular diseases will remain leading causes of global disease burden, with HIV/AIDS the leading cause, diarrhoeal diseases and lower respiratory infections will be outranked by COPD, in part reflecting the projected increases in death and disability from tobacco use.

Using epidemiological models to estimate the health effects of diet behaviour change: the example of tailored fruit and vegetable promotion

Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.

Antibacterial dosing in intensive care: Pharmacokinetics, degree of disease and pharmacodynamics of sepsis

Treatment of sepsis remains a significant challenge with persisting high mortality and morbidity. Early and appropriate antibacterial therapy remains an important intervention for such patients. To optimise antibacterial therapy, the clinician must possess knowledge of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of commonly used antibacterials and how these parameters may be affected by the constellation of pathophysiological changes occurring during sepsis. Sepsis, and the treatment thereof, increases renal preload and, via capillary permeability, leads to 'third-spacing', both resulting in higher antibacterial clearances. Alternatively, sepsis can induce multiple organ dysfunction, including renal and/or hepatic dysfunction, causing a decrease in antibacterial clearance. Aminoglycosides are concentration-dependent antibacterials and they display an increased volume of distribution (V-d) in sepsis, resulting in decreased peak serum concentrations. Reduced clearance from renal dysfunction would increase the likelihood of toxicity. Individualised dosing using extended interval dosing, which maximises the peak serum drug concentration (C-max)/minimum inhibitory concentration ratio is recommended. beta-Lactams and carbapenems are time-dependent antibacterials. An increase in Vd and renal clearance will require increased dosing or administration by continuous infusion. If renal impairment occurs a corresponding dose reduction may be required. Vancomycin displays predominantly time-dependent pharmacodynamic properties and probably requires higher than conventionally recommended doses because of an increased V-d and clearance during sepsis without organ dysfunction. However, optimal dosing regimens remain unresolved. The poor penetration of vancomycin into solid organs may require alternative therapies when sepsis involves solid organs (e.g. lung). Ciprofloxacin displays largely concentration-dependent kill characteristics, but also exerts some time-dependent effects. The V-d of ciprofloxacin is not altered with fluid shifts or over time, and thus no alterations of standard doses are required unless renal dysfunction occurs. In order to optimise antibacterial regimens in patients with sepsis, the pathophysiological effects of systemic inflammatory response syndrome need consideration, in conjunction with knowledge of the different kill characteristics of the various antibacterial classes. In conclusion, certain antibacterials can have a very high V-d, therefore leading to a low C-max and if a high peak is needed, then this would lead to underdosing. The Vd of certain antibacterials, namely aminoglycosides and vancomycin, changes over time, which means dosing may need to be altered over time. Some patients with serum creatinine values within the normal range can have very high drug clearances, thereby producing low serum drug levels and again leading to underdosing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.