Using epidemiological models to estimate the health effects of diet behaviour change: the example of tailored fruit and vegetable promotion

Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.

Effect of training on the response of plasma vascular endothelial growth factor to exercise in patients with peripheral arterial disease

Expansion of the capillary network, or angiogenesis, occurs following endurance training. This process, which is reliant on the presence of VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor), is an adaptation to a chronic mismatch between oxygen demand and supply. Patients with IC (intermittent claudication) experience pain during exercise associated with an inadequate oxygen delivery to the muscles. Therefore the aims of the present study were to examine the plasma VEGF response to acute exercise, and to establish whether exercise training alters this response in patients with IC. In Part A, blood was collected from patients with IC (n = 18) before and after (+ 20 and + 60 min post-exercise) a maximal walking test to determine the plasma VEGF response to acute exercise. VEGF was present in the plasma of patients (45.11 +/- 29.96 pg/ml) and was unchanged in response to acute exercise. Part B was a training study to determine whether exercise training altered the VEGF response to acute exercise. Patients were randomly assigned to a treatment group (TMT; n = 7) that completed 6 weeks of high-intensity treadmill training, or to a control group (CON; n = 6). All patients completed a maximal walking test before and after the intervention, with blood samples drawn as for Part A. Training had no effect on plasma VEGF at rest or in response to acute exercise, despite a significant increase in maximal walking time in the TMT group (915 + 533 to 1206 + 500 s; P = 0.009) following the intervention. The absence of a change in plasma VEGF may reflect altered VEGF binding at the endothelium, although this cannot be confirmed by the present data.

Alveolar haemorrhage in anti-glomerular basement membrane disease without detectable antibodies by conventional assays

Anti-glomerular basement membrane (anti-GBM) disease represents the spectrum of disease attributable to circulating anti-GBM antibodies. While active anti-GBM disease in the absence of circulating anti-GBM antibodies has been described, it is considered rare with the use of current routinely available assays. We report four subjects with features consistent with active anti-GBM antibody disease without detectable antibodies by routinely available enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblot techniques. All were smokers who presented with diffuse alveolar haemorrhage, minimal renal involvement, and undetectable anti-GBM antibodies. Seronegative anti-GBM disease with predominant pulmonary involvement may be more common than previously appreciated and should be part of the differential diagnosis for otherwise unexplained diffuse alveolar haemorrhage. Renal biopsy with immunofluorescent studies should be considered in the diagnostic evaluation of such subjects, including those with idiopathic pulmonary haemosiderosis.

Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?

Deforestation often occurs as temporal waves and in localized fronts termed 'deforestation hotspots' driven by economic pulses and population pressure. Of particular concern for conservation planning are 'biodiversity hotspots' where high concentrations of endemic species undergo rapid loss and fragmentation of habitat. We investigate the deforestation process in Caqueta, a biodiversity hotspot and major colonization front of the Colombian Amazon using multi-temporal satellite imagery of the periods 1989-1996-1999-2002. The probabilities of deforestation and regeneration were modeled against soil fertility, accessibility and neighborhood terms, using logistic regression analysis. Deforestation and regeneration patterns and rates were highly variable across the colonization front. The regional average annual deforestation rate was 2.6%, but varied locally between -1.8% (regeneration) and 5.3%, with maximum rates in landscapes with 40-60% forest cover and highest edge densities, showing an analogous pattern to the spread of disease. Soil fertility and forest and secondary vegetation neighbors showed positive and significant relationships with the probability of deforestation. For forest regeneration, soil fertility had a significant negative effect while the other parameters were marginally significant. The logistic regression models across all periods showed a high level of discrimination power for both deforestation and forest regeneration, with ROC values > 0.80. We document the effect of policies and institutional changes on the land clearing process, such as the failed peace process between government and guerillas in 1999-2002, which redirected the spread of deforestation and increased forest regeneration. The implications for conservation in biologically rich areas, such as Caqueta are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Ultraviolet absorbance of the mucus of a tropical damselfish: Effects of ontogeny, captivity and disease

The ultraviolet (UV) absorbance of the mucus of a Great Barrier Reef damselfish Pomacentrus amboinensis was investigated with regard to ontogeny and time spent in captivity. The UV absorbance of P. amboinensis mucus increased with fish size and decreased with time spent in captivity. The wavelength of maximum absorbance of the mucus did not change with fish size, but shifted towards shorter wavelengths with increasing time spent in captivity. The UV absorbance of the mucus of fish with 'fin rot' was compared to that of similar healthy individuals, and a significant decrease in UV absorbance of unhealthy fish mucus was detected; no wavelength shifting occurred. Pomacentrus amboinensis appears to sequester mycosporine-like amino acids from the diet in order to protect epithelial tissues from UV damage, and decreases in UV absorbance in captive fish were probably due to insufficient dietary availability.