Bias, precision and heritability of self-reported and clinically measured height in Australian twins

Many studies of quantitative and disease traits in human genetics rely upon self-reported measures. Such measures are based on questionnaires or interviews and are often cheaper and more readily available than alternatives. However, the precision and potential bias cannot usually be assessed. Here we report a detailed quantitative genetic analysis of stature. We characterise the degree of measurement error by utilising a large sample of Australian twin pairs (857 MZ, 815 DZ) with both clinical and self-reported measures of height. Self-report height measurements are shown to be more variable than clinical measures. This has led to lowered estimates of heritability in many previous studies of stature. In our twin sample the heritability estimate for clinical height exceeded 90%. Repeated measures analysis shows that 2-3 times as many self-report measures are required to recover heritability estimates similar to those obtained from clinical measures. Bivariate genetic repeated measures analysis of self-report and clinical height measures showed an additive genetic correlation > 0.98. We show that the accuracy of self-report height is upwardly biased in older individuals and in individuals of short stature. By comparing clinical and self-report measures we also showed that there was a genetic component to females systematically reporting their height incorrectly; this phenomenon appeared to not be present in males. The results from the measurement error analysis were subsequently used to assess the effects of error on the power to detect linkage in a genome scan. Moderate reduction in error (through the use of accurate clinical or multiple self-report measures) increased the effective sample size by 22%; elimination of measurement error led to increases in effective sample size of 41%.

Random error in willingness to pay measurement: A multiple indicators, latent variable approach to the reliability of contingent values

The reliability of measurement refers to unsystematic error in observed responses. Investigations of the prevalence of random error in stated estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) are important to an understanding of why tests of validity in CV can fail. However, published reliability studies have tended to adopt empirical methods that have practical and conceptual limitations when applied to WTP responses. This contention is supported in a review of contingent valuation reliability studies that demonstrate important limitations of existing approaches to WTP reliability. It is argued that empirical assessments of the reliability of contingent values may be better dealt with by using multiple indicators to measure the latent WTP distribution. This latent variable approach is demonstrated with data obtained from a WTP study for stormwater pollution abatement. Attitude variables were employed as a way of assessing the reliability of open-ended WTP (with benchmarked payment cards) for stormwater pollution abatement. The results indicated that participants' decisions to pay were reliably measured, but not the magnitude of the WTP bids. This finding highlights the need to better discern what is actually being measured in VVTP studies, (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Two empirical hydrocyclone models revisited

There has been an abundance of literature on the modelling of hydrocyclones over the past 30 years. However, in the comminution area at least, the more popular commercially available packages (e.g. JKSimMet, Limn, MODSIM) use the models developed by Nageswararao and Plitt in the 1970s, either as published at that time, or with minor modification. With the benefit of 30 years of hindsight, this paper discusses the assumptions and approximations used in developing these models. Differences in model structure and the choice of dependent and independent variables are also considered. Redundancies are highlighted and an assessment made of the general applicability of each of the models, their limitations and the sources of error in their model predictions. This paper provides the latest version of the Nageswararao model based on the above analysis, in a form that can readily be implemented in any suitable programming language, or within a spreadsheet. The Plitt model is also presented in similar form. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

Practical scheme for error control using feedback

We describe a scheme for quantum-error correction that employs feedback and weak measurement rather than the standard tools of projective measurement and fast controlled unitary gates. The advantage of this scheme over previous protocols [for example, Ahn Phys. Rev. A 65, 042301 (2001)], is that it requires little side processing while remaining robust to measurement inefficiency, and is therefore considerably more practical. We evaluate the performance of our scheme by simulating the correction of bit flips. We also consider implementation in a solid-state quantum-computation architecture and estimate the maximal error rate that could be corrected with current technology.

Variability in time delay between two models of pulse oximeters for deriving the photoplethysmographic signals

Pulse oximetry is commonly used as an arterial blood oxygen saturation (SaO(2)) measure. However, its other serial output, the photoplethysmography (PPG) signal, is not as well studied. Raw PPG signals can be used to estimate cardiovascular measures like pulse transit time (PTT) and possibly heart rate (HR). These timing-related measurements are heavily dependent on the minimal variability in phase delay of the PPG signals. Masimo SET (R) Rad-9 (TM) and Novametrix Oxypleth oximeters were investigated for their PPG phase characteristics on nine healthy adults. To facilitate comparison, PPG signals were acquired from fingers on the same hand in a random fashion. Results showed that mean PTT variations acquired from the Masimo oximeter (37.89 ms) were much greater than the Novametrix (5.66 ms). Documented evidence suggests that I ms variation in PTT is equivalent to I mmHg change in blood pressure. Moreover, the PTT trend derived from the Masimo oximeter can be mistaken as obstructive sleep apnoeas based on the known criteria. HR comparison was evaluated against estimates attained from an electrocardiogram (ECG). Novametrix differed from ECG by 0.71 +/- 0.58% (p < 0.05) while Masimo differed by 4.51 +/- 3.66% (p > 0.05). Modem oximeters can be attractive for their improved SaO(2) measurement. However, using raw PPG signals obtained directly from these oximeters for timing-related measurements warrants further investigations.

Estimation of adsorption capacity for dissociating and non dissociating aromatic compounds on activated carbon with different models

The process of adsorption of two dissociating and two non-dissociating aromatic compounds from dilute aqueous solutions on an untreated commercially available activated carbon (B.D.H.) was investigated systematically. All adsorption experiments were carried out in pH controlled aqueous solutions. The experimental isotherms were fitted into four different models (Langmuir homogenous Models, Langmuir binary Model, Langmuir-Freundlich single model and Langmuir-Freundlich double model). Variation of the model parameters with the solution pH was studied and used to gain further insight into the adsorption process. The relationship between the model parameters and the solution pH and pK(a) was used to predict the adsorption capacity in molecular and ionic form of solutes in other solution. A relationship was sought to predict the effect of pH on the adsorption systems and for estimating the maximum adsorption capacity of carbon at any pH where the solute is ionized reasonably well. N-2 and CO2 adsorption were used to characterize the carbon. X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) measurement was used for surface elemental analysis of the activated carbon.

Rice morphogenesis and plant architecture: Measurement, specification and the reconstruction of structural development by 3D architectural modelling

Background and Aims The morphogenesis and architecture of a rice plant, Oryza sativa, are critical factors in the yield equation, but they are not well studied because of the lack of appropriate tools for 3D measurement. The architecture of rice plants is characterized by a large number of tillers and leaves. The aims of this study were to specify rice plant architecture and to find appropriate functions to represent the 3D growth across all growth stages. Methods A japonica type rice, 'Namaga', was grown in pots under outdoor conditions. A 3D digitizer was used to measure the rice plant structure at intervals from the young seedling stage to maturity. The L-system formalism was applied to create '3D virtual rice' plants, incorporating models of phenological development and leaf emergence period as a function of temperature and photoperiod, which were used to determine the timing of tiller emergence. Key Results The relationships between the nodal positions and leaf lengths, leaf angles and tiller angles were analysed and used to determine growth functions for the models. The '3D virtual rice' reproduces the structural development of isolated plants and provides a good estimation of the fillering process, and of the accumulation of leaves. Conclusions The results indicated that the '3D virtual rice' has a possibility to demonstrate the differences in the structure and development between cultivars and under different environmental conditions. Future work, necessary to reflect both cultivar and environmental effects on the model performance, and to link with physiological models, is proposed in the discussion.

Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.

The new reinforcement sensitivity theory: Implications for personality measurement

In this article, we review recent modifications to Jeffrey Gray's (1973, 1991) reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST), and attempt to draw implications for psychometric measurement of personality traits. First, we consider Gray and McNaughton's (2000) functional revisions to the biobehavioral systems of RST Second, we evaluate recent clarifications relating to interdependent effects that these systems may have on behavior, in addition to or in place of separable effects (e.g., Corr 2001; Pickering, 1997). Finally, we consider ambiguities regarding the exact trait dimension to which Gray's It reward system corresponds. From this review, we suggest that future work is needed to distinguish psychometric measures of (a) fear from anxiety and (b) reward-reactivity-from trait impulsivity. We also suggest, on the basis of interdependent system views of RST and associated exploration using formal models, that traits that are based upon RST are likely to have substantial intercorrelations. Finally, we advise that more substantive work is required to define relevant constructs and behaviors in RST before we can be confident in our psychometric measures of them.

Automatic measurement of vertebral rotation in idiopathic scoliosis

Study Design. Development of an automatic measurement algorithm and comparison with manual measurement methods. Objectives. To develop a new computer-based method for automatic measurement of vertebral rotation in idiopathic scoliosis from computed tomography images and to compare the automatic method with two manual measurement techniques. Summary of Background Data. Techniques have been developed for vertebral rotation measurement in idiopathic scoliosis using plain radiographs, computed tomography, or magnetic resonance images. All of these techniques require manual selection of landmark points and are therefore subject to interobserver and intraobserver error. Methods. We developed a new method for automatic measurement of vertebral rotation in idiopathic scoliosis using a symmetry ratio algorithm. The automatic method provided values comparable with Aaro and Ho's manual measurement methods for a set of 19 transverse computed tomography slices through apical vertebrae, and with Aaro's method for a set of 204 reformatted computed tomography images through vertebral endplates. Results. Confidence intervals (95%) for intraobserver and interobserver variability using manual methods were in the range 5.5 to 7.2. The mean (+/- SD) difference between automatic and manual rotation measurements for the 19 apical images was -0.5 degrees +/- 3.3 degrees for Aaro's method and 0.7 degrees +/- 3.4 degrees for Ho's method. The mean (+/- SD) difference between automatic and manual rotation measurements for the 204 endplate images was 0.25 degrees +/- 3.8 degrees. Conclusions. The symmetry ratio algorithm allows automatic measurement of vertebral rotation in idiopathic scoliosis without intraobserver or interobserver error due to landmark point selection.

A comparison of different choices for the regularization parameter in inverse electrocardiography models

Calculating the potentials on the heart’s epicardial surface from the body surface potentials constitutes one form of inverse problems in electrocardiography (ECG). Since these problems are ill-posed, one approach is to use zero-order Tikhonov regularization, where the squared norms of both the residual and the solution are minimized, with a relative weight determined by the regularization parameter. In this paper, we used three different methods to choose the regularization parameter in the inverse solutions of ECG. The three methods include the L-curve, the generalized cross validation (GCV) and the discrepancy principle (DP). Among them, the GCV method has received less attention in solutions to ECG inverse problems than the other methods. Since the DP approach needs knowledge of norm of noises, we used a model function to estimate the noise. The performance of various methods was compared using a concentric sphere model and a real geometry heart-torso model with a distribution of current dipoles placed inside the heart model as the source. Gaussian measurement noises were added to the body surface potentials. The results show that the three methods all produce good inverse solutions with little noise; but, as the noise increases, the DP approach produces better results than the L-curve and GCV methods, particularly in the real geometry model. Both the GCV and L-curve methods perform well in low to medium noise situations.