Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent master equation simulation of complex elementary reactions in combustion: Application to the reaction of (CH2)-C-1 with C2H2 from 300-2000 K

Computational simulations of the title reaction are presented, covering a temperature range from 300 to 2000 K. At lower temperatures we find that initial formation of the cyclopropene complex by addition of methylene to acetylene is irreversible, as is the stabilisation process via collisional energy transfer. Product branching between propargyl and the stable isomers is predicted at 300 K as a function of pressure for the first time. At intermediate temperatures (1200 K), complex temporal evolution involving multiple steady states begins to emerge. At high temperatures (2000 K) the timescale for subsequent unimolecular decay of thermalized intermediates begins to impinge on the timescale for reaction of methylene, such that the rate of formation of propargyl product does not admit a simple analysis in terms of a single time-independent rate constant until the methylene supply becomes depleted. Likewise, at the elevated temperatures the thermalized intermediates cannot be regarded as irreversible product channels. Our solution algorithm involves spectral propagation of a symmetrised version of the discretized master equation matrix, and is implemented in a high precision environment which makes hitherto unachievable low-temperature modelling a reality.

Non-Markovian quantum optical processes and pseudomodes

Non-Markovian behaviour in atomic systems coupled to a structured reservoir of quantum EM field modes, such as in high Q cavities, is treated using a quasimode description, and the pseudo mode theory for single quantum reservoir excitations is obtained via Fano diagonalisation. The atomic transitions are coupled to a discrete set of (cavity) quasimodes, which are also coupled to a continuum set of (external) quasimodes with slowly varying coupling constants. Each pseudomode corresponds to a cavity quasimode, and the original reservoir structure is obtained in expressions for the equivalent atom-true mode coupling constants. Cases of multiple excitation of the reservoir are now treatable via Markovian master equations for the atom-discrete quasimode system.

Growth of a Bose-Einstein condensate: a detailed comparison of theory and experiment

We extend the earlier model of condensate growth of Davis et at (Davis M J, Gardiner C W and Ballagh R J 2000 Phys. Rev. A 62 063608) to include the effect of gravity in a magnetic trap. We carry out calculations to model the experiment reported by Kohl et al (Kohl M, Davis M J, Gardiner C W, Hansch T and Esslinger T 2001 Preprint cond-mat/0106642) who study the formation of a rubidium Bose-Einstein condensate for a range of evaporative cooling parameters. We find that, in the regime where our model is valid, the theoretical curves agree with all the experimental data with no fitting parameters. However, for the slowest cooling of the gas the theoretical curve deviates significantly from the experimental curves. It is possible that this discrepancy may be related to the formation of a quasicondensate.

Atom lasers, coherent states, and coherence. I. Physically realizable ensembles of pure states

A laser, be it an optical laser or an atom laser, is an open quantum system that produces a coherent beam of bosons (photons or atoms, respectively). Far above threshold, the stationary state rho(ss) of the laser mode is a mixture of coherent-field states with random phase, or, equivalently, a Poissonian mixture of number states. This paper answers the question: can descriptions such as these, of rho(ss) as a stationary ensemble of pure states, be physically realized? Here physical realization is as defined previously by us [H. M. Wiseman and J. A. Vaccaro, Phys. Lett. A 250, 241 (1998)]: an ensemble of pure states for a particular system can be physically realized if, without changing the dynamics of the system, an experimenter can (in principle) know at any time that the system is in one of the pure-state members of the ensemble. Such knowledge can be obtained by monitoring the baths to which the system is coupled, provided that coupling is describable by a Markovian master equation. Using a family of master equations for the (atom) laser, we solve for the physically realizable (PR) ensembles. We find that for any finite self-energy chi of the bosons in the laser mode, the coherent-state ensemble is not PR; the closest one can come to it is an ensemble of squeezed states. This is particularly relevant for atom lasers, where the self-energy arising from elastic collisions is expected to be large. By contrast, the number-state ensemble is always PR. As the self-energy chi increases, the states in the PR ensemble closest to the coherent-state ensemble become increasingly squeezed. Nevertheless, there are values of chi for which states with well-defined coherent amplitudes are PR, even though the atom laser is not coherent (in the sense of having a Bose-degenerate output). We discuss the physical significance of this anomaly in terms of conditional coherence (and hence conditional Bose degeneracy).

Prediction of absolute rate coefficients and product branching ratios for the C(P-3) plus allene reaction system

Complex chemical reactions in the gas phase can be decomposed into a network of elementary (e.g., unimolecular and bimolecular) steps which may involve multiple reactant channels, multiple intermediates, and multiple products. The modeling of such reactions involves describing the molecular species and their transformation by reaction at a detailed level. Here we focus on a detailed modeling of the C(P-3)+allene (C3H4) reaction, for which molecular beam experiments and theoretical calculations have previously been performed. In our previous calculations, product branching ratios for a nonrotating isomerizing unimolecular system were predicted. We extend the previous calculations to predict absolute unimolecular rate coefficients and branching ratios using microcanonical variational transition state theory (mu-VTST) with full energy and angular momentum resolution. Our calculation of the initial capture rate is facilitated by systematic ab initio potential energy surface calculations that describe the interaction potential between carbon and allene as a function of the angle of attack. Furthermore, the chemical kinetic scheme is enhanced to explicitly treat the entrance channels in terms of a predicted overall input flux and also to allow for the possibility of redissociation via the entrance channels. Thus, the computation of total bimolecular reaction rates and partial capture rates is now possible. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. IV. Lanczos iteration with diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative inversion

In this paper we propose a second linearly scalable method for solving large master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems. The new method is based on the well-known shift-invert Lanczos iteration using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation to provide the inverse of the master equation matrix. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods while maintaining the speed of a partial spectral decomposition. The method is tested using a master equation modeling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long-lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. III. Direct time propagation accelerated by a diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative solver

In this paper we propose a novel fast and linearly scalable method for solving master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems, based on an existent stiff ordinary differential equation integrator. The required solution of a linear system involving the Jacobian matrix is achieved using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods and maintain the low temperature robustness of numerical integration. The method is tested using a master equation modelling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Selecting methods to solve multi-well master equations

There are several competing methods commonly used to solve energy grained master equations describing gas-phase reactive systems. When it comes to selecting an appropriate method for any particular problem, there is little guidance in the literature. In this paper we directly compare several variants of spectral and numerical integration methods from the point of view of computer time required to calculate the solution and the range of temperature and pressure conditions under which the methods are successful. The test case used in the comparison is an important reaction in combustion chemistry and incorporates reversible and irreversible bimolecular reaction steps as well as isomerizations between multiple unimolecular species. While the numerical integration of the ODE with a stiff ODE integrator is not the fastest method overall, it is the fastest method applicable to all conditions.

A review of drainage and spontaneous rupture in free standing thin films with tangentially immobile interfaces

A review of spontaneous rupture in thin films with tangentially immobile interfaces is presented that emphasizes the theoretical developments of film drainage and corrugation growth through the linearization of lubrication theory in a cylindrical geometry. Spontaneous rupture occurs when corrugations from adjacent interfaces become unstable and grow to a critical thickness. A corrugated interface is composed of a number of waveforms and each waveform becomes unstable at a unique transition thickness. The onset of instability occurs at the maximum transition thickness, and it is shown that only upper and lower bounds of this thickness can be predicted from linear stability analysis. The upper bound is equivalent to the Freakel criterion and is obtained from the zeroth order approximation of the H-3 term in the evolution equation. This criterion is determined solely by the film radius, interfacial tension and Hamaker constant. The lower bound is obtained from the first order approximation of the H-3 term in the evolution equation and is dependent on the film thinning velocity A semi-empirical equation, referred to as the MTR equation, is obtained by combining the drainage theory of Manev et al. [J. Dispersion Sci. Technol., 18 (1997) 769] and the experimental measurements of Radoev et al. [J. Colloid Interface Sci. 95 (1983) 254] and is shown to provide accurate predictions of film thinning velocity near the critical thickness of rupture. The MTR equation permits the prediction of the lower bound of the maximum transition thickness based entirely on film radius, Plateau border radius, interfacial tension, temperature and Hamaker constant. The MTR equation extrapolates to Reynolds equation under conditions when the Plateau border pressure is small, which provides a lower bound for the maximum transition thickness that is equivalent to the criterion of Gumerman and Homsy [Chem. Eng. Commun. 2 (1975) 27]. The relative accuracy of either bound is thought to be dependent on the amplitude of the hydrodynamic corrugations, and a semiempirical correlation is also obtained that permits the amplitude to be calculated as a function of the upper and lower bound of the maximum transition thickness. The relationship between the evolving theoretical developments is demonstrated by three film thickness master curves, which reduce to simple analytical expressions under limiting conditions when the drainage pressure drop is controlled by either the Plateau border capillary pressure or the van der Waals disjoining pressure. The master curves simplify solution of the various theoretical predictions enormously over the entire range of the linear approximation. Finally, it is shown that when the Frenkel criterion is used to assess film stability, recent studies reach conclusions that are contrary to the relevance of spontaneous rupture as a cell-opening mechanism in foams. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.