Path integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This note presents a method of evaluating the distribution of a path integral for Markov chains on a countable state space.

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

Existence and uniqueness of Q-processes with a given finite μ-invariant measure

Let Q be a stable and conservative Q-matrix over a countable state space S consisting of an irreducible class C and a single absorbing state 0 that is accessible from C. Suppose that Q admits a finite mu-subinvariant measure in on C. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for there to exist a Q-process for which m is mu-invariant on C, as well as a necessary condition for the uniqueness of such a process.

Subgeometric rates of convergence for a class of continuous-time Markov process

Let (Phi(t))(t is an element of R+) be a Harris ergodic continuous-time Markov process on a general state space, with invariant probability measure pi. We investigate the rates of convergence of the transition function P-t(x, (.)) to pi; specifically, we find conditions under which r(t) vertical bar vertical bar P-t (x, (.)) - pi vertical bar vertical bar -> 0 as t -> infinity, for suitable subgeometric rate functions r(t), where vertical bar vertical bar - vertical bar vertical bar denotes the usual total variation norm for a signed measure. We derive sufficient conditions for the convergence to hold, in terms of the existence of suitable points on which the first hitting time moments are bounded. In particular, for stochastically ordered Markov processes, explicit bounds on subgeometric rates of convergence are obtained. These results are illustrated in several examples.

On the existence of uni-instantaneous Q-processes with a given finite mu-invariant measure

Let S be a countable set and let Q = (q(ij), i, j is an element of S) be a conservative q-matrix over S with a single instantaneous state b. Suppose that we are given a real number mu >= 0 and a strictly positive probability measure m = (m(j), j is an element of S) such that Sigma(i is an element of S) m(i)q(ij) = -mu m(j), j 0 b. We prove that there exists a Q-process P(t) = (p(ij) (t), i, j E S) for which m is a mu-invariant measure, that is Sigma(i is an element of s) m(i)p(ij)(t) = e(-mu t)m(j), j is an element of S. We illustrate our results with reference to the Kolmogorov 'K 1' chain and a birth-death process with catastrophes and instantaneous resurrection.

Molecular Sieve Silica (MSS) Membranes for Gas Separation and Reaction Processes

Weakly branched silica films formed by the two-step sol-gel process allow for the formation of high selectivity membranes for gas separation. 29Si NMR and gas permeation showed that reduced crosslinking leads to He/CH4 selectivity improvement from 300 to 1000. Applied in membrane reactor for cyclohexane conversion to benzene, conversions were achieved at 14 fold higher than a conventional reactor at 250°C. Hydrothermal stability studies showed that carbon templating of silica is required for hydrothermally stable membranes. From our work it was shown that with correct application of chemistry, practical membrane systems can be built to suit gas separation (e. g. hydrogen fuel) and reactor systems.

On compliance of business processes with business contracts

This paper addresses the problem of ensuring compliance of business processes, implemented within and across organisational boundaries, with the constraints stated in related business contracts. In order to deal with the complexity of this problem we propose two solutions that allow for a systematic and increasingly automated support for addressing two specific compliance issues. One solution provides a set of guidelines for progressively transforming contract conditions into business processes that are consistent with contract conditions thus avoiding violation of the rules in contract. Another solution compares rules in business contracts and rules in business processes to check for possible inconsistencies. Both approaches rely on a computer interpretable representation of contract conditions that embodies contract semantics. This semantics is described in terms of a logic based formalism allowing for the description of obligations, prohibitions, permissions and violations conditions in contracts. This semantics was based on an analysis of typical building blocks of many commercial, financial and government contracts. The study proved that our contract formalism provides a good foundation for describing key types of conditions in contracts, and has also given several insights into valuable transformation techniques and formalisms needed to establish better alignment between these two, traditionally separate areas of research and endeavour. The study also revealed a number of new areas of research, some of which we intend to address in near future.

Air Entrainment Processes in a Full-Scale Rectangular Dropshaft at Large Flows

Rectangular dropshafts, commonly used in sewers and storm water systems, are characterised by significant flow aeration. New detailed air-water flow measurements were conducted in a near-full-scale dropshaft at large discharges. In the shaft pool and outflow channel, the results demonstrated the complexity of different competitive air entrainment mechanisms. Bubble size measurements showed a broad range of entrained bubble sizes. Analysis of streamwise distributions of bubbles suggested further some clustering process in the bubbly flow although, in the outflow channel, bubble chords were in average smaller than in the shaft pool. A robust hydrophone was tested to measure bubble acoustic spectra and to assess its field application potential. The acoustic results characterised accurately the order of magnitude of entrained bubble sizes, but the transformation from acoustic frequencies to bubble radii did not predict correctly the probability distribution functions of bubble sizes.

Do economists ‘compose’ economics? A comparison of the creative processes of artists and economists

This is a draft for a chapter of the book version of my Ph.D thesis. The chapter addresses the following question: Are the creative processes of musical composers and academic economists essentially the same, or are there significant differences? The paper finds that there are deep similarities between the creative processes of theoretical economists and the creative processes of artists. The chapter builds a process oriented lifecycle account of creative activity, drawing on testimonial material from the arts and the sciences, and relates the model to the creative work of economists developing economic theory.

A class of compact dwarf galaxies from disruptive processes in galaxy clusters

Dwarf galaxies have attracted increased attention in recent years, because of their susceptibility to galaxy transformation processes within rich galaxy clusters. Direct evidence for these processes, however, has been difficult to obtain, with a small number of diffuse light trails and intra-cluster stars, being the only signs of galaxy disruption. Furthermore, our current knowledge of dwarf galaxy populations may be very incomplete, because traditional galaxy surveys are insensitive to extremely diffuse or compact galaxies. Aware of these concerns, we recently undertook an all-object survey of the Fornax galaxy cluster. This revealed a new population of compact members, overlooked in previous conventional surveys. Here we demonstrate that these 'ultra-compact' dwarf galaxies are structurally and dynamically distinct from both globular star clusters and known types of dwarf galaxy, and thus represent a new class of dwarf galaxy. Our data are consistent with the interpretation that these are the remnant nuclei of disrupted dwarf galaxies, making them an easily observed tracer of galaxy disruption.

The collision branching process

We consider a branching model, which we call the collision branching process (CBP), that accounts for the effect of collisions, or interactions, between particles or individuals. We establish that there is a unique CBP, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be nonexplosive. We review results on extinction probabilities, and obtain explicit expressions for the probability of explosion and the expected hitting times. The upwardly skip-free case is studied in some detail.

Dynamic processes in contingent valuation: A case study involving the mahogany glider

This paper reports the results of an experiment involving a sample of 204 members of the public who were assessed on three occasions about their willingness to pay for the conservation of the mahogany glider. They were asked this question prior to information being provided to them about the glider and other focal wildlife species; after such information was provided, and finally after participants had had an opportunity to see live specimens of this glider. The mean willingness to pay of the relevant samples are compared and found to show significant variations. Theories are considered that help explain the dynamics of these variations. Serious concerns are raised about the capacity of information provision to reveal ‘true’ contingent valuations of public goods.